River Flood Warning 270, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
651 AM CDT SUN JUL 11 2010

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS MORNING...AN ELONGATED S/W TROUGH OVER NEBRASKA EMBEDDED
IN BROAD WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUED TO SUPPORT A WEAK MCS ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN NE. THROUGH DAYBREAK...EXPECTING THIS MCS TO CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES SE INTO THE NORTHERN CWA...AS INSTABILITY RAPIDLY
DECREASES FURTHER EAST.

THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN TRANSITIONING TO A RAPID
WARMUP BY WEDNESDAY.

FOR TODAY...OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE REALLY OF NO STRONG HELP...AS
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK CONTINUES TO PLAGUE FCST DETAILS. THE 00Z NAM AND
TO SOME DEGREE THE 00Z GFS HAVE BOTH STRUGGLED MIGHTILY
OVERDEVELOPING THE H50 S/W CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NE. THE OVER
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE IS LEADING TO POOR RESOLUTION OF BOUNDARY
LAYER FEATURES AND THUS SEVERELY IMPACTING THE FCST BEYOND TODAY.
ATTM...PREFER A BLEND OF THE LOWER RESOLUTION ECMWF/GEM...WITH SOME
MESOSCALE SUPPORT FROM THE NSSL-WRF AND A SLIGHTLY IMPROVED 06Z NAM.
THIS SAID...INITIAL CONVECTION THIS MORNING SHOULD PUSH A LITTLE
FURTHER SE INTO THE CWA THROUGH DAY BREAK ONLY SLOWLY CRAWLING INTO
NORTHERN MO. POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO REDEVELOP AS
IT MOVES A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. MEANWHILE...THE EVENTUAL PASSAGE OF
A SFC TROUGH STILL RESIDING WELL NW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NE AND
CENTRAL SD AND ITS IMPACTS REMAIN IN QUESTION. FEEL THAT SOME
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS TO THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS THAT WILL
REMAIN OVER THE CWA TODAY WHICH COULD HAMPER AVAILABLE INSTABILITY.
NEVERTHELESS THIS S/W OVER NE IS EXPECTED TO PIVOT FAIRLY QUICKLY
TODAY WITH THE MAIN ENERGY PASSING THROUGH NORTHERN MO...AND A
TRAILING TROUGH AXIS INTO CENTRAL KS. SHOULD MODEL PROJECTIONS OF
1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE COME TO FRUITION...DECENT SHEAR PROVIDED BY A
ABNORMALLY STRONG MID-LVL JETLET WOULD PROVIDE SOME SUPPORT FOR
STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE DEVELOPMENT RATHER EARLY IN THE AFTN AS THE
FRONT BEGINS TO SURGE SE A BIT. SOUNDINGS APPEAR MINIMALLY
CAPPED...WITH INHIBITION ALREADY NON- EXISTENT BY NOON.

WOULD EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR INITIAL VERY SCT SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT...WITH STORMS CONGEALING INTO MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS WITH
DRY POCKET OF AIR ALOFT SUPPORTIVE OF DAMAGING WINDS. FZING LVLS
REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH...BUT ADEQUATE SHEAR ALOFT MAY SUPPORT LARGER
HAIL. DUE TO THE SPEED AND EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE S/W STORMS
SHOULD PROGRESS FAIRLY RAPIDLY SE THROUGH THE AFTN...WITH LOWER POPS
EXPECTED IN THE EVENING AS SUBSIDENCE ARRIVES.

FOR MONDAY...REALLY FEEL THAT MUCH OF MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS THE
REGION SHOULD BE UNDER S/W RIDGING. HAVE TRIED TO TRIM BACK
POPS...WHICH MAY BE TRIMMED BACK FURTHER IN LATER FCSTS. TEMPS SHOULD
RECOVER A BIT ON MONDAY WITH A BIT MORE SUNSHINE...WITH READINGS
SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL.

FOR MON NIGHT...ANOTHER RATHER PROGRESSIVE S/W TROUGH WILL ZIP
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. AS THIS S/W PASSES OVER
THE WESTERN PLAINS IT SHOULD DEVELOP CONVECTION MON AFTN AND EVE
ALONG THE STALLED FRONT IN SOUTHERN KS AND SOUTHERN MO. AN MCS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP AND MOVE EASTWARD...WITH THE FAVORED AREA JUST SOUTH
OF THE CWA. FURTHER NORTH THERE MAY BE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION...BUT
AREAL COVERAGE WOULD SUGGEST ONLY SCT WORDING ATTM.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A RATHER RAPID AND STRONG WARMUP WILL BE ON
TAP AS MID-LVL RIDGING POPS UP IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY
AHEAD OF STRONGER UPR TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
READINGS ON TUESDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPR 80S...LIMITED BY A SLOW
RETURN OF SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS. AFTER WHATS EXPECTED TO BE A VERY WARM
OVERNIGHT PERIOD TUE NIGHT...STRONG RETURN FLOW WILL PUSH THE NOSE OF
A +24C TO +26C H85 THERMAL RIDGE OVERHEAD BY WED MORNING. STRONG
MIXING SHOULD PUSH READINGS INTO THE LOWER 90S...ALSO PUSHING HEAT
INDEX READINGS INTO THE LOWER 100S.

THURSDAY...HAVE BUMPED UP POPS A LITTLE FURTHER FOR LATE WED NIGHT
INTO THU AS MODELS REMAIN IN STRONG AGREEMENT IN EDGING A SFC FRONT
TOWARDS THE AREA WITH MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

DUX

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 12Z TAFS...LINE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION NORTHWEST OF THE
TERMINALS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
THIS MORNING ALONG THE NOSE OF DEEPER GULF MOISTURE AND APPROACHING
INSTABILITY AXIS. THE INITIAL WAVE OF THUNDERSTORMS...ACCOMPANIED BY
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS...WILL WORK ACROSS THE TAF SITES DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS (BEGINNING WITH STJ MOMENTARILY).

EXPECT WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE TO OCCUR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY...WITH ADDITIONAL STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON ONCE THE AIRMASS RECOVERS. STORMS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED
BY LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS BEFORE A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE ENDS THE
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING WITH A WIND SHIFT INTO THE
LIGHT NORTH.

BOOKBINDER

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
602 AM CDT SUN JUL 11 2010

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-121115-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
602 AM CDT SUN JUL 11 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTH AND EAST
THIS MORNING INTO EASTERN KANSAS AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN
MISSOURI...MAINLY IN AREAS ALONG THE KANSAS MISSOURI BORDER. A FEW
STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID-MORNING
AS THIS CLUSTER COULD RE-INTENSIFY. THESE STORMS WOULD BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS.

A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE BY THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THIS
MORNING...INSTABILITY MAY BE HIGH ENOUGH TO PROMOTE SCATTERED STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WILL SINK SOUTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND OUT OF THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BEFORE AN ADDITIONAL CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
REMAINS LOW.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S WITH HEAT INDEX READINGS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BETWEEN
100 AND 105 DEGREES.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED OVER THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA THIS
AFTERNOON.

DUX

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