River Flood Warning 93, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
635 PM CDT SAT APR 24 2010

...UPDATED AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT RANGE (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...

THE SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS
HAS LARGELY WANED...WITH EARLIER ACTIVITY ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST
MISSOURI RAMPING DOWN. EARLY AFTERNOON ACTIVITY...WITH SMALL
NON-SUPERCELL TORNADOES IN FAR NORTHWEST MISSOURI...WAS TIED TO A
REGION OF MODEST INSTABILITY AND A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY. AS THESE
SMALL THUNDERSTORMS MOVED ACROSS THE WEAKLY SHEARED SURFACE BOUNDARY
IN NORTHWEST MISSOURI...THE STORMS INGESTED AND STRETCHED THE
CIRCULATIONS ALONG THE BOUNDARY JUST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS
FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTS...AND SOME BRIEF TORNADO TOUCH DOWNS. THIS
ACTIVITY IS SLOWLY RAMPING DOWN AS A NEWLY FORMED SURFACE LOW ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI IS TAKING THE FOCUS OF SEVERE STORM ACTIVITY
AND SHIFTING IT EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS
MAY STILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME FUNNEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON...BUT SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT
EXPECTED. MUCH OF THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN SHIFT EAST
AS THE SUN SETS...LEAVING BEST INSTABILITY CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVERNIGHT.

FOR TONIGHT...THE CURRENT STORM SYSTEM CHURNING ITS WAY THROUGH THE
PLAINS STATES WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE FORECAST REGION UNDER THE THREAT
OF RAIN INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ABUNDANT AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE HAVE
WRAPPED INTO THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION...PROVIDING AMPLE MOISTURE
FOR STORMS TO WORK WITH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHORTWAVE...PIVOTING
FROM TEXAS NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI UNDER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
CUTOFF LOW...HAS FUELED NEARLY CONTINUOUS RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR FORECAST REGION TODAY. AS THE SHORTWAVE PIVOTS
INTO EASTERN IOWA THIS EVENING...EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT THE CENTROID
OF THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL SHIFT EAST QUICKLY...ULTIMATELY
LIMITING THE THREAT FOR CONTINUED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
KANSAS/MISSOURI BORDER REGION THIS EVENING. BEST POTENTIAL FOR MORE
RAIN OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY WILL EXISTS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST MISSOURI AS THIS ENTIRE SYSTEM TAKES ON A STRUCTURE
SIMILAR TO A WINTER EVENT WITH A TROWAL ALONG THE IOWA BORDER. AS A
RESULT...STILL EXPECT TO SEE SOME SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS AREAS FROM NORTHEAST MISSOURI SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL MISSOURI
THIS EVENING. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT A FLOOD WATCH GOING FOR AREAS
EAST OF HIGHWAY 65...ROUGHLY FROM UNIONVILLE SOUTH THROUGH
SEDALIA...TILL 1 AM SUNDAY MORNING.

FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF SUNDAY...WRAP AROUND ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO STILL PLAGUE NORTHEAST MISSOURI THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY
MORNING....BUT MOST OF THE FOCUS FOR MORE RAIN WILL BE TO THE EAST
OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

CUTTER

MEDIUM RANGE (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

FORECAST FOR THE WORK WEEK INDICATES THAT WE SHOULD BEGIN THE WEEK A
LITTLE WET AND COOL...BEFORE WARMING UP INTO SOME PLEASANT SPRING
WEATHER MID-WEEK...AHEAD OF ANOTHER SYSTEM WHICH WILL PUSH THROUGH
DURING THE END OF THE WORK WEEK BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK...SHORT TO MID RANGE MODELS HAVE
ALL LATCHED ONTO A SHORTWAVE...THAT IS CURRENTLY MAKING LANDFALL
ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA...AND DROPPING INTO THE NORTHWEST FLOW THAT
IS GOING TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF TODAYS
CUTOFF LOW. EXPECTED TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE MONDAY WILL TAKE IT
RIGHT ACROSS MISSOURI...WITH THE GFS ADVERTISING THE FASTEST
SOLUTION. PREFERENCE IS FOR THE CONSENSUS AMONG THE OTHER MODELS
WHICH ARE RUNNING 6 TO 12 HOURS SLOWER. TIMING ISSUES ASIDE...CHANCE
POPS LOOK GOOD FOR THE IOWA BORDER REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT.

FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK...SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL SLIDE ACROSS
THE CENTER OF THE CONUS. THIS RIDGE WILL FIRST ESTABLISH ITSELF IN
THE WAKE OF THIS WEEKENDS WEATHER ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN CONUS
SUNDAY...THEN PROPAGATE ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE NATION WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE BACK ABOVE NORMAL AS SYNOPTIC LEVEL HEIGHT
GAINS SHIFT ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF
SURFACE WINDS RETURNING TO THE SOUTH.

FOR LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...A POTENT JET WILL DIVE INTO THE NEGATIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALIES ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS MID WORK WEEK. MID RANGE
MODELS FOCUS ON THIS OCCURRENCE AS CARVING OUT ANOTHER LARGE TROUGH
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. ALL
MID-RANGE MODELS ADVERTISE THIS...THOUGH THE DETAILS VARY. SURFACE
FEATURES DETAILS ARE SPREAD ACROSS A WIDE RANGE...AS THE DIFFERENT
MODELS ALL HANDLE THE SURFACE COLD FRONT A BIT DIFFERENTLY. GFS IS
BY FAR THE FASTEST...ZIPPING THE FRONT THROUGH THE CWA BY 12Z
FRIDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 12 TO 24 HOURS SLOWER. GEM AND
UKMET ADVERTISE A MORE ECMWF LIKE SOLUTIONS. HAVE LEANED THE LATE
WORK WEEK FORECAST TOWARDS THE MAJORITY CONSENSUS. HAVE BROUGHT
CHANCE POPS INTO FAR NORTHWEST MISSOURI AS EARLY AS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT BELIEVE THE TIMING FOR MUCH OF THE REGION TO SEE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. HAVE
BROAD BRUSHED THESE POPS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...AND EVEN KEPT A
SILENT SLIGHT CHANCE POP THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A HEDGE TOWARDS THE
TIMING ISSUES WHICH ABOUND WITH THE MID-RANGE MODELS.

CUTTER

&&

.AVIATION...

AREAS OF RAIN CONTINUE TO ROTATE ABOUT THE TERMINAL CORRIDOR UNDER
PRIMARILY VFR CIGS...THOUGH PRECIPITATION COVERAGE SHOULD
DETERIORATE SIGNIFICANTLY BY MID/LATE EVENING. A COUPLE BRIEF MORE
INTENSE AREAS OF RAIN DEPICTED ON RADAR MAY LOCALLY BRING DOWN
CIGS/VSBY INTO MVFR CATEGORY SHORTLY AFTER 00Z...BUT DURATION SHOULD
BE QUITE LIMITED. OTHERWISE...VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BECOME
WLY/NWLY AS STRONG PRESSURE FALLS OVER ERN MISSOURI PULL THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT EASTWARD...WITH INCREASING SPEEDS AND A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS LIKELY EVEN BEFORE DAYBREAK.

MODEL FORECASTS AND UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS OVER CNTRL NEBRASKA
SUPPORT AT LEAST MVFR CIGS PULLING SOUTHEAST INTO TERMINALS BY
12Z...WITH NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS EVEN SUGGESTING A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS.
HAVE KEPT THIS PACKAGE WITH MIDDLE RANGE MVFR CIGS BASED MORE OFF OF
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS...INCREASING TO HIGHER END
MVFR THEN VFR CIGS WITH MIXING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATING SCT
SHRA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND HAVE INCLUDED A VICINITY MENTION FOR
THIS PACKAGE.

21

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR MOZ007-008-016-017-024-
     025-032-033-039-040-045-046.

KS...NONE.
&&

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
256 PM CDT SAT APR 24 2010

MOZ001-002-011-012-242100-
ANDREW MO-ATCHISON MO-HOLT MO-NODAWAY MO-
256 PM CDT SAT APR 24 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ATCHISON...SOUTHWESTERN
NODAWAY...HOLT AND NORTHWESTERN ANDREW COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM CDT...

AT 253 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS FROM NEAR TARKIO TO MOUND CITY. THESE STORMS
WERE MOVING NORTH AT NEARLY 10 MPH. ANOTHER STRONG STORM WAS LOCATED
NEAR BARNARD AND WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

ANY OF THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING A BRIEF FUNNEL AND PERHAPS A WEAK...SHORT LIVED TORNADO.
THESE ARE NOT SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS BUT RATHER STORMS THAT PRODUCE
A BRIEF STRONG THUNDERSTORM UPDRAFT THAT ENABLES A FEW FUNNELS AND
POSSIBLY WEAK SHORT LIVED TORNADOES TO FORM. PLEASE REPORT ANY
SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL  WEATHER SERVICE OR YOUR LOCAL LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY AND HAVE THEM RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  TARKIO...
  SKIDMORE...
  CRAIG...
  FAIRFAX...
  BURLINGTON JUNCTION...
  ROCKPORT...
  CORNING...
  QUITMAN...
  WESTBORO...
  PHELPS CITY...
  WATSON...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 4058 9522 4056 9522 4031 9488 4014 9478
      3998 9501 3990 9497 3987 9510 4004 9540
      4011 9539 4023 9548 4030 9557 4031 9565
      4035 9561 4049 9570 4056 9566 4057 9567
      4052 9570 4053 9574 4059 9577
TIME...MOT...LOC 1953Z 143DEG 5KT 4018 9518

CDB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
303 PM CDT SAT APR 24 2010

MOZ007-242030-
PUTNAM MO-
303 PM CDT SAT APR 24 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL PUTNAM COUNTY UNTIL 330
PM CDT...

AT 257 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF UNIONVILLE...MOVING
NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM HAD A STRONG UPDRAFT AND A BRIEF FUNNEL CLOUD IS POSSIBLE
GIVEN THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND WARM MOIST AIR AT THE SURFACE. PLEASE
REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OR YOUR
LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY AND HAVE THEM RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHERN PUTNAM COUNTY.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 4041 9305 4038 9311 4038 9315 4041 9330
      4052 9321
TIME...MOT...LOC 2002Z 120DEG 8KT 4040 9313

CDB