River Flood Warning 101, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
635 PM CDT SAT APR 24 2010

...UPDATED AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT RANGE (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...

THE SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS
HAS LARGELY WANED...WITH EARLIER ACTIVITY ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST
MISSOURI RAMPING DOWN. EARLY AFTERNOON ACTIVITY...WITH SMALL
NON-SUPERCELL TORNADOES IN FAR NORTHWEST MISSOURI...WAS TIED TO A
REGION OF MODEST INSTABILITY AND A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY. AS THESE
SMALL THUNDERSTORMS MOVED ACROSS THE WEAKLY SHEARED SURFACE BOUNDARY
IN NORTHWEST MISSOURI...THE STORMS INGESTED AND STRETCHED THE
CIRCULATIONS ALONG THE BOUNDARY JUST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS
FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTS...AND SOME BRIEF TORNADO TOUCH DOWNS. THIS
ACTIVITY IS SLOWLY RAMPING DOWN AS A NEWLY FORMED SURFACE LOW ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI IS TAKING THE FOCUS OF SEVERE STORM ACTIVITY
AND SHIFTING IT EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS
MAY STILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME FUNNEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON...BUT SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT
EXPECTED. MUCH OF THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN SHIFT EAST
AS THE SUN SETS...LEAVING BEST INSTABILITY CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVERNIGHT.

FOR TONIGHT...THE CURRENT STORM SYSTEM CHURNING ITS WAY THROUGH THE
PLAINS STATES WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE FORECAST REGION UNDER THE THREAT
OF RAIN INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ABUNDANT AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE HAVE
WRAPPED INTO THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION...PROVIDING AMPLE MOISTURE
FOR STORMS TO WORK WITH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHORTWAVE...PIVOTING
FROM TEXAS NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI UNDER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
CUTOFF LOW...HAS FUELED NEARLY CONTINUOUS RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR FORECAST REGION TODAY. AS THE SHORTWAVE PIVOTS
INTO EASTERN IOWA THIS EVENING...EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT THE CENTROID
OF THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL SHIFT EAST QUICKLY...ULTIMATELY
LIMITING THE THREAT FOR CONTINUED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
KANSAS/MISSOURI BORDER REGION THIS EVENING. BEST POTENTIAL FOR MORE
RAIN OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY WILL EXISTS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST MISSOURI AS THIS ENTIRE SYSTEM TAKES ON A STRUCTURE
SIMILAR TO A WINTER EVENT WITH A TROWAL ALONG THE IOWA BORDER. AS A
RESULT...STILL EXPECT TO SEE SOME SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS AREAS FROM NORTHEAST MISSOURI SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL MISSOURI
THIS EVENING. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT A FLOOD WATCH GOING FOR AREAS
EAST OF HIGHWAY 65...ROUGHLY FROM UNIONVILLE SOUTH THROUGH
SEDALIA...TILL 1 AM SUNDAY MORNING.

FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF SUNDAY...WRAP AROUND ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO STILL PLAGUE NORTHEAST MISSOURI THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY
MORNING....BUT MOST OF THE FOCUS FOR MORE RAIN WILL BE TO THE EAST
OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

CUTTER

MEDIUM RANGE (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

FORECAST FOR THE WORK WEEK INDICATES THAT WE SHOULD BEGIN THE WEEK A
LITTLE WET AND COOL...BEFORE WARMING UP INTO SOME PLEASANT SPRING
WEATHER MID-WEEK...AHEAD OF ANOTHER SYSTEM WHICH WILL PUSH THROUGH
DURING THE END OF THE WORK WEEK BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK...SHORT TO MID RANGE MODELS HAVE
ALL LATCHED ONTO A SHORTWAVE...THAT IS CURRENTLY MAKING LANDFALL
ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA...AND DROPPING INTO THE NORTHWEST FLOW THAT
IS GOING TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF TODAYS
CUTOFF LOW. EXPECTED TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE MONDAY WILL TAKE IT
RIGHT ACROSS MISSOURI...WITH THE GFS ADVERTISING THE FASTEST
SOLUTION. PREFERENCE IS FOR THE CONSENSUS AMONG THE OTHER MODELS
WHICH ARE RUNNING 6 TO 12 HOURS SLOWER. TIMING ISSUES ASIDE...CHANCE
POPS LOOK GOOD FOR THE IOWA BORDER REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT.

FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK...SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL SLIDE ACROSS
THE CENTER OF THE CONUS. THIS RIDGE WILL FIRST ESTABLISH ITSELF IN
THE WAKE OF THIS WEEKENDS WEATHER ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN CONUS
SUNDAY...THEN PROPAGATE ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE NATION WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE BACK ABOVE NORMAL AS SYNOPTIC LEVEL HEIGHT
GAINS SHIFT ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF
SURFACE WINDS RETURNING TO THE SOUTH.

FOR LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...A POTENT JET WILL DIVE INTO THE NEGATIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALIES ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS MID WORK WEEK. MID RANGE
MODELS FOCUS ON THIS OCCURRENCE AS CARVING OUT ANOTHER LARGE TROUGH
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. ALL
MID-RANGE MODELS ADVERTISE THIS...THOUGH THE DETAILS VARY. SURFACE
FEATURES DETAILS ARE SPREAD ACROSS A WIDE RANGE...AS THE DIFFERENT
MODELS ALL HANDLE THE SURFACE COLD FRONT A BIT DIFFERENTLY. GFS IS
BY FAR THE FASTEST...ZIPPING THE FRONT THROUGH THE CWA BY 12Z
FRIDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 12 TO 24 HOURS SLOWER. GEM AND
UKMET ADVERTISE A MORE ECMWF LIKE SOLUTIONS. HAVE LEANED THE LATE
WORK WEEK FORECAST TOWARDS THE MAJORITY CONSENSUS. HAVE BROUGHT
CHANCE POPS INTO FAR NORTHWEST MISSOURI AS EARLY AS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT BELIEVE THE TIMING FOR MUCH OF THE REGION TO SEE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. HAVE
BROAD BRUSHED THESE POPS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...AND EVEN KEPT A
SILENT SLIGHT CHANCE POP THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A HEDGE TOWARDS THE
TIMING ISSUES WHICH ABOUND WITH THE MID-RANGE MODELS.

CUTTER

&&

.AVIATION...

AREAS OF RAIN CONTINUE TO ROTATE ABOUT THE TERMINAL CORRIDOR UNDER
PRIMARILY VFR CIGS...THOUGH PRECIPITATION COVERAGE SHOULD
DETERIORATE SIGNIFICANTLY BY MID/LATE EVENING. A COUPLE BRIEF MORE
INTENSE AREAS OF RAIN DEPICTED ON RADAR MAY LOCALLY BRING DOWN
CIGS/VSBY INTO MVFR CATEGORY SHORTLY AFTER 00Z...BUT DURATION SHOULD
BE QUITE LIMITED. OTHERWISE...VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BECOME
WLY/NWLY AS STRONG PRESSURE FALLS OVER ERN MISSOURI PULL THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT EASTWARD...WITH INCREASING SPEEDS AND A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS LIKELY EVEN BEFORE DAYBREAK.

MODEL FORECASTS AND UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS OVER CNTRL NEBRASKA
SUPPORT AT LEAST MVFR CIGS PULLING SOUTHEAST INTO TERMINALS BY
12Z...WITH NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS EVEN SUGGESTING A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS.
HAVE KEPT THIS PACKAGE WITH MIDDLE RANGE MVFR CIGS BASED MORE OFF OF
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS...INCREASING TO HIGHER END
MVFR THEN VFR CIGS WITH MIXING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATING SCT
SHRA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND HAVE INCLUDED A VICINITY MENTION FOR
THIS PACKAGE.

21

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR MOZ007-008-016-017-024-
     025-032-033-039-040-045-046.

KS...NONE.
&&

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