River Flood Warning 280, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1229 AM CDT TUE JUL 20 2010

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
/348 PM CDT MON JUL 19 2010/
TONIGHT:
A VERY COMPLEX SURFACE PATTERN EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION
WITH NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES TO ACCOUNT FOR AND AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS FOR ANY BOUNDARY TO WORK WITH. THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO BE
ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA/FAR NORTHERN MISSOURI. A BAND OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS HAS LIMITED THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA BUT AS THIS
CLOUD AREA MOVES TO THE EAST DESTABILIZATION WILL LEAD TO EXTREME
INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 3000 TO 4000 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY WILL
OCCUR IN A REGION OF STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND AS A RESULT
SHEAR WILL BE ENOUGH THAT SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP THEY WILL LIKELY
QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE WITH SUPERCELLS THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE
INITIALLY. THE STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO A CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX AND TRACK TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA/NORTHERN
MISSOURI. CONFIDENCE IS STILL SOMEWHAT LOW REGARDING THIS SCENARIO AS
THERE ARE SEVERAL NEGATIVES INCLUDING HOW RAPID A RECOVERY CAN BE
ACHIEVED.

TUESDAY:
CONTINUED THE HEAT HEADLINES AS IS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT PUSHED THROUGH CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON
KEPT TEMPERATURES IN CHECK AND WITH THE MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK MOVING
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THAT WAS IN THE HEAT ADVISORY MAY NOT HAVE SEEN
THE EXCESSIVE HEAT. IT APPEARS ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL MOVE
THROUGH OUR NORTHERN/EASTERN ZONES SPREADING ANOTHER OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD SIMILAR TO MONDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS STILL
FAIRLY LOW AND GIVEN THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE REGION AND VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES LIKELY FEEL THAT AT THIS TIME A CONTINUATION OF THE
HEAT HEADLINES AS IS WAS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO. THAT SAID...THE
METRO AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES CLIMBING
TO AROUND 110 WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES FURTHER NORTH. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY FOR AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER...WHICH THROWS ANOTHER WRINKLE INTO HOW FAR NORTH THE
HEAT WILL MAKE IT TOMORROW. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR
STORMS TO WORK WITH THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS AS WELL.

WEDNESDAY:
THE PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WITH
CONVECTIVE CHANCES LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON ALONG A SLOW
MOVING BOUNDARY. CONFIDENCE IN CARRYING THE HEAT HEADLINES INTO
WEDNESDAY IS FAIRLY LOW. WILL LET SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS ASSESS THE NEED
FOR ANY CONTINUATION. REGARDING CONVECTION...THE EXTREMELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WILL PERSIST WITH SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE STORMS.

THURSDAY-MONDAY:

SIGNIFICANT LEE TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR ON THURSDAY...COINCIDENT WITH A 597DM RIDGE OVER THE SERN US.
THIS SHOULD EFFECTIVELY PLACE THE ENTIRE CWA WELL INTO THE WARM
SECTOR WITH MCS ACTIVITY SHIFTING WELL NORTH OF THE REGION.
THUS...CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST ON DAY 4 OF A GENERALLY DRY/CAPPED DAY
WITH VERY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

THEREAFTER...A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE PROGRESSING THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST WILL HELP FORCE THE BELT OF WEST/NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW TO
LOWER LATITUDES...DRIVING A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST
AND INTO THE CWA. SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE WITH THIS
FEATURE DURING THE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY TIME FRAME...WITH
SOME RELIEF EXPECTED SATURDAY. HOWEVER...AN EXPECTED STALLING AND
GRADUAL NORTHWARD RETURN OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A
VERY DIRTY UPPER RIDGE WITH CHAOTIC FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION
FOR SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. WILL FAVOR NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE
ABSENCE OF ANY HEIGHT ANOMALIES...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS EXPECTED ALONG THE REMNANT SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY.

BOOKBINDER

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE EVOLUTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NEAR KSTJ AT THIS TIME IS EXPECTED TO LIFT A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE
NORTH OVERNIGHT...WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO
WATCH ANY EFFECTS OF THIS CONVECTION KEEPING THE FRONT FROM BEING
ABLE TO MOVE MUCH TO THE NORTH...SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON KSTJ
FOR CONVECTION ARRIVING EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...FRONT SHOULD START TO MOVE SOUTH WITH MORE CONVECTION
ALONG IT. AT THIS TIME WILL JUST INDICATED THE CONVECTION POTENTIAL
WITH A VCTS UNTIL TIMING BECOMES CLEARER.

PC

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR MOZ011>014-020>023-
     030>033-038>040-046.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR
     MOZ028-029-037-043>045-053-054.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR KSZ025-102.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR KSZ057-060-
     103>105.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
548 PM CDT MON JUL 19 2010

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-202300-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
548 PM CDT MON JUL 19 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

HEAT INDICES WILL CONTINUE FROM THE 100 TO 110 DEGREE RANGE THROUGH
EARLY EVENING FROM AREAS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ST JOSEPH TO
CHILLICOTHE TO BOONVILLE.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSOURI OR SOUTHERN IOWA...GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM MOUND CITY
MISSOURI TO CHILLICOTHE TO MOBERLY. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS
INITIALLY WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO
IS ALSO POSSIBLE. THE STORMS MAY FORM INTO A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX AND
TRACK EAST SOUTHEAST LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THE MAIN HAZARDS
WITH THIS COMPLEX WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WINDS. ADDITIONALLY ANY
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINS...WHICH
MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS TO SEE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FAR NORTHERN MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND THEN GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM ST. JOSEPH
TO MOBERLY LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

MORE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A
WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE SITTING ACROSS AREAS FROM KANSAS CITY
TO MACON...WITH STORMS POSSIBLE ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THIS FRONT.
BY THURSDAY...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT BACK NORTH INTO IOWA WITH
MORE HEAT AND HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES...WHICH MAY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL
ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS.

THE MAIN THREATS FROM ANY STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL AND
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT MAY OCCUR BY NEXT WEEKEND AS MORE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY AGAIN RETURN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
MAINLY IN NORTHERN MISSOURI...NORTH OF A LINE FROM ST JOSEPH TO
FAYETTE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1111 PM CDT MON JUL 19 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1056 PM     TORNADO          7 NE BROWNING           40.11N 93.07W
07/19/2010                   SULLIVAN           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1121 PM CDT MON JUL 19 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1116 PM     TORNADO          5 NW NEW BOSTON         40.00N 92.95W
07/19/2010                   LINN               MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1131 PM CDT MON JUL 19 2010

MOZ016-017-200515-
ADAIR MO-SULLIVAN MO-
1131 PM CDT MON JUL 19 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN SULLIVAN AND SOUTHWESTERN
ADAIR COUNTIES UNTIL 1215 AM CDT...

AT 1127 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR GREEN CITY...OR 11 MILES EAST OF MILAN...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  KIRKSVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT AND MILLARD.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

LAT...LON 4005 9242 4004 9283 4021 9304 4027 9297
      4029 9285
TIME...MOT...LOC 0431Z 314DEG 17KT 4020 9290

DUX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1146 PM CDT MON JUL 19 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0942 PM     TORNADO          HARRIS                  40.31N 93.35W
07/19/2010                   SULLIVAN           MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ROOF BLOWN OFF - TIME ESTIMATED

&&

DB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1148 PM CDT MON JUL 19 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1032 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MILAN                   40.20N 93.12W
07/19/2010                   SULLIVAN           MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN - TIME ESTIMATED

&&

DB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1148 PM CDT MON JUL 19 2010

MOZ016-017-025-200530-
ADAIR MO-MACON MO-SULLIVAN MO-
1148 PM CDT MON JUL 19 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN SULLIVAN...
SOUTHWESTERN ADAIR AND NORTHERN MACON COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 AM CDT...

AT 1145 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NOVINGER...OR 15 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF KIRKSVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  LA PLATA...SOUTH GIFFORD...KIRKSVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT...ETHEL AND
ELMER.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV
STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

LAT...LON 3985 9277 3996 9286 4004 9285 4004 9292
      4010 9296 4022 9271 3995 9233
TIME...MOT...LOC 0448Z 311DEG 25KT 4010 9282

DUX