Severe Thunderstorm Warning 73, NWS Quad Cities, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
335 AM CDT SAT JUN 12 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY UNDULATING FROM
WEST TO EAST FROM EAST CENTRAL NEB...TO LOCALLY ALONG THE I80
CORRIDOR AND THEN EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD MKE AND NW LOWER MI.
NOTICEABLE LOW TO MID 70 DPT FIELD POOLED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS
FEATURE IN SOUTHERN IA. PRESSURE FALLS CONTINUED TO INCREASE ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY AS WELL WITH CURRENT MAX IN SOUTH CENTRAL IA IN VCNTY
OF WAA WING AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FLARING UP JUST SOUTHEAST OF
DSM. 00Z UA ANALYSIS CONTINUED TO INDICATE A VERY IMPRESSIVE SLUG
OF H85 MB MOISTURE INDICATED BY MID TO UPPER TEEN C DPTS POOLED UP
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS RVR VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
SHORT RANGE MODELS AND CONCEPTUAL FORCING TOOLS SUGGEST BULK OF
UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER NEB AND SD TO WEAKEN DIURNALLY AND
MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST ACRS NORTHERN IA AND MN THIS MORNING. WILL HAVE
TO DEAL HOWEVER WITH SECONDARY WAA WING OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
CURRENTLY PERCOLATING ACRS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IA THIS MORNING
ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MS RVR THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z BEFORE THEY TOO
START TO DIURNALLY WEAKEN AND DECAY. WITH SOUPY BOUNDARY LAYER AND
AIRMASS OF 1.7 TO 2 INCH PW/S...LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY
SOME URBAN AND SMALL STREAM TYPE FLOODING THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS
MORNING ACTIVITY. THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT TRYING TO RETREAT
NORTHWARD ALONG WITH SOME MCS-FORCING PARAMETERS MOVING ACRS CENTRAL
INTO EASTERN IA SHOULD INITIATE SOME NEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT
ACRS PORTIONS OF THE DVN CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
FAVORED AREAS OF DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.
HIGH PW/SATURATED AIRMASS AND WEAK SHEAR SUGGEST THAT MAIN CONCERN
AGAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS OPPOSED TO SVR WX...ALTHOUGH A LOW
CHC OF BOWING SEGMENTS FEEDING ON HIGH CAPE AND POSSIBLY PRODUCING
WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH REMAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. TOUGH TO DEFINE
AREAS OF LIKELY OR HIGHER POPS AND WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO HIGH
CHC POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA INTO THE EVENING.  CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
AGAIN TO BE A FACTOR WITH WARM UP POTENTIAL...BUT MAY BE ENOUGH
BREAKS AND RECOVERY INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR THE CWA TO ATTAIN HIGH
TEMPS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.

TONIGHT...MUCH OF ORGANIZED MCS INDUCING PARAMETERS AGAIN FOCUS BACK
ON THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WILL STILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO CARRY MODERATE
TO HIGH CHC POPS CWA-WIDE AS THE LLVL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO WAVER
THOUGH EASTERN IA AND NORTHWEST IL UNDER ROUNDS OF ELEVATED WAA AND
WEAK TO MODERATE RIDGE-RIDING WAVES OR MCV/S ROTATING FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND TOWARD THE WESTERN GRT
LKS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING IN AREAS THAT GET HIT
REPEATEDLY BY RAINFALL COMING DOWN AT RATES OF 1.5 TO 2
INCHES AN HOUR IN TROPICAL-LIKE AIRMASS CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY
SIGNIFICANT WX CONCERN TONIGHT. WILL GO WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
NORTH...AND LOW TO MID 70S IN THE SOUTH IN CONTINUED HIGH SFC DPT
FIELDS.     ..12..

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...
W/SW FLOW WITH EMBEDDED IMPULSES ALONG WITH EXTREMELY MOIST AIRMASS
(PW/S NEAR 2 INCHES) AND FRONTAL ZONE IN THE VICINITY... WILL
RESULT IN SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IMPACTING PORTIONS OF
THE AREA THROUGH MON... AND HAVE CONTINUED WITH MOD/HIGH CHC POPS
MOST OF THE AREA INTO MON NGT. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH
LOCATION OF BOUNDARIES AS NON-LINEAR PROCESSES DOMINATE... WHICH
PRECLUDES FROM GOING HIGHER ON POPS ATTIM. DEEP WARM AND MOIST
VERTICAL PROFILE SUGGEST SEVERE WX THREAT LOW... WITH GUSTY WINDS
BEING THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT. MAIN CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WITH TRAINING
AND HIGH RAINFALL RATES GIVEN DEEP WARM LAYER ABOVE 0C ENHANCING WARM
RAIN PROCESSES. HIGH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL ON SUN TRANSITION TO BELOW
NORMAL MON-TUE WITH SOME AREAS POTENTIALLY STRUGGLING TO REACH 70F ON
MON ACROSS THE NORTH WITH CLOUDS AND PCPN. LOWS TRENDING NEAR NORMAL.
GENERAL SUGGESTION OF DRYING OUT INDICATED BY MIDWEEK WITH PASSAGE
OF SOUTHWEST ENERGY THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST WHICH IN TURN SENDS
COLD FRONT WELL SOUTH WITH COOLER...DRIER AIR SETTLING IN. BUT...
LULL IN PCPN APPEARS TO BE RATHER SHORT-LIVED AS PATTERN RECYCLES
WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY DROPPING DOWN IN PERSISTENT WESTERN TROUGH.
W/SW FLOW ALOFT WILL SHUTTLE IMPULSES ACROSS REGION AND COMBINE WITH
RETREATING SFC BOUNDARY FOR RETURN OF UNSETTLED/ACTIVE WX WITH
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE LATE WEEK.     ..05..

&&

.AVIATION...
ROUNDS OF MVFR CU AND STRATOCU THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR
LEVEL CU AND AC BY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH SFC LAYER MOISTURE MAY
MAKE FOR FOG OF 3-5SM THROUGH SUNRISE IN VCNTY OF MOST TERMINALS.
SCTRD CONVECTION IN THE VCNTY OF CID THROUGH 15Z...POSSIBLY HEAVY
RAIN AND IFR VSBYS WITH STRONGER STORM CELLS. AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION TO BE SCTRD AN MAY COVER WITH VCNTY WORDING IN TAFS FROM
20Z THROUGH 05Z SUNDAY. MORE LIGHT FOG TONIGHT IN CONTINUED LIGHT
AND VARIABLE SFC WIND REGIME IN VCNTY OF WAVERING SFC BOUNDARY.
..12..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

12/05

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
500 AM CDT SAT JUN 12 2010

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-131000-
BENTON IA-BUCHANAN IA-BUREAU IL-CARROLL IL-CEDAR IA-CLARK MO-
CLINTON IA-DELAWARE IA-DES MOINES IA-DUBUQUE IA-HANCOCK IL-
HENDERSON IL-HENRY IA-HENRY IL-IOWA IA-JACKSON IA-JEFFERSON IA-
JO DAVIESS IL-JOHNSON IA-JONES IA-KEOKUK IA-LEE IA-LINN IA-LOUISA IA-
MCDONOUGH IL-MERCER IL-MUSCATINE IA-PUTNAM IL-ROCK ISLAND IL-
SCOTLAND MO-SCOTT IA-STEPHENSON IL-VAN BUREN IA-WARREN IL-
WASHINGTON IA-WHITESIDE IL-
500 AM CDT SAT JUN 12 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTH OVER AREAS MAINLY ALONG
AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS MORNING...WHILE WIDELY
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE FROM LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AT RATES OF OVER AN INCH AN HOUR...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 45
MPH. AREAS THAT GET HIT REPEATEDLY WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO URBAN AND
SMALL STREAM TYPE FLOODING THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE THE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND MOVE NORTH OUT OF THE AREA. AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WAVERS THROUGH THE AREA IN A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...THE OUTLOOK AREA WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO
MORE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BOW OUT
AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...AGAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE FROM
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING. ANOTHER LARGE COMPLEX
OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO WESTERN
IOWA AGAIN TONIGHT...AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY MAKE IT INTO
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL OUTLOOK AREA TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING. IF
THIS LATE NIGHT COMPLEX OF STORMS CAN MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH EAST TO
IMPACT THE AREA...IT WILL BRING THE CONTINUED THREAT OF HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED
AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR IN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

IF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN CLEAR IN TIME...VERY WARM
WEATHER CAN AGAIN BE EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S COMBINED
WITH HIGH HUMIDITY...WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDICES WELL UP INTO 90S AND
UNCOMFORTABLE CONDITIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA
THROUGH MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME... WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY
THREAT. OF MORE CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLASH FLOODING... DUE TO HIGH RAINFALL RATES OVER AN INCH PER
HOUR AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME AREAS SEEING REPEATED DEVELOPMENT.

AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN MIDWEEK...THE
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

12/05

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
703 AM CDT SAT JUN 12 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 AM     HEAVY RAIN       S WELLMAN               41.47N 91.84W
06/12/2010  M1.30 INCH       WASHINGTON         IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SINCE 5 AM.

0702 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 E WHAT CHEER          41.41N 92.28W
06/12/2010  M1.17 INCH       KEOKUK             IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SINCE 4 AM CDT.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
718 AM CDT SAT JUN 12 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0718 AM     HEAVY RAIN       WILLIAMSBURG            41.67N 92.01W
06/12/2010  M1.60 INCH       IOWA               IA   CO-OP OBSERVER

            SINCE 430 AM CDT.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
721 AM CDT SAT JUN 12 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 N MARENGO             41.85N 92.07W
06/12/2010  M1.06 INCH       IOWA               IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SINCE 4 AM CDT.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
741 AM CDT SAT JUN 12 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 AM     HEAVY RAIN       WASHINGTON              41.30N 91.69W
06/12/2010  M2.02 INCH       WASHINGTON         IA   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

12

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
754 AM CDT SAT JUN 12 2010

IAZ063-064-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ025-034-MOZ009-010-121445-
IOWA-JOHNSON-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON-HENRY IA-
DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-HENDERSON-HANCOCK-SCOTLAND-CLARK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MARENGO...IOWA CITY...SIGOURNEY...
WASHINGTON...WAPELLO...FAIRFIELD...MOUNT PLEASANT...BURLINGTON...
KEOSAUQUA....FORT MADISON...OQUAWKA...CARTHAGE...MEMPHIS...KAHOKA
754 AM CDT SAT JUN 12 2010

...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN THROUGH MID MORNING...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH 930 AM CDT. THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF
25 TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. THESE ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER QUICK
.5 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN AS THEY PASS BUY. THIS RAIN ON TOP OF AREAS
THAT ALREADY RECEIVED LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
RESULT IN PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND IN LOW LYING AREAS...
AND LIKELY RAPID RISES ON AREA STREAMS AND CREEKS.

IAZ040>042-051>054-065>068-ILZ001-002-007-009-015>017-024-121445-
BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-CEDAR-CLINTON-
MUSCATINE-SCOTT-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL-WHITESIDE-
ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-MERCER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...INDEPENDENCE...MANCHESTER...DUBUQUE...
VINTON...CEDAR RAPIDS...ANAMOSA...MAQUOKETA...TIPTON...CLINTON...
MUSCATINE...BETTENDORF...DAVENPORT...GALENA...FREEPORT...
MOUNT CARROLL...STERLING...ROCK FALLS...MOLINE...ROCK ISLAND...
KEWANEE...PRINCETON...ALEDO
754 AM CDT SAT JUN 12 2010

...CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORRENTIAL RAIN...

A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 930 AM CDT. THESE STORMS WILL
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...AND TORRENTIAL RAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 1.50
INCHES IS LIKELY IN SOME AREAS IN 45 MINUTES...ESPECIALLY FROM
DUBUQUE...TO MORRISON...AND TO KEWANEE IN ILLINOIS. THIS QUICK
BURST OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS AND IN LOW LYING AREAS...AND LIKELY RAPID RISES ON AREA
STREAMS AND CREEKS. VISIBILITY WILL BE GREATLY REDUCED IN THE
HEAVY RAIN... SO MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO DRIVE WITH CAUTION THIS
MORNING.

12