Flash Flood Warning 11, NWS Quad Cities, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
335 AM CDT SAT JUN 12 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY UNDULATING FROM
WEST TO EAST FROM EAST CENTRAL NEB...TO LOCALLY ALONG THE I80
CORRIDOR AND THEN EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD MKE AND NW LOWER MI.
NOTICEABLE LOW TO MID 70 DPT FIELD POOLED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS
FEATURE IN SOUTHERN IA. PRESSURE FALLS CONTINUED TO INCREASE ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY AS WELL WITH CURRENT MAX IN SOUTH CENTRAL IA IN VCNTY
OF WAA WING AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FLARING UP JUST SOUTHEAST OF
DSM. 00Z UA ANALYSIS CONTINUED TO INDICATE A VERY IMPRESSIVE SLUG
OF H85 MB MOISTURE INDICATED BY MID TO UPPER TEEN C DPTS POOLED UP
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS RVR VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
SHORT RANGE MODELS AND CONCEPTUAL FORCING TOOLS SUGGEST BULK OF
UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER NEB AND SD TO WEAKEN DIURNALLY AND
MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST ACRS NORTHERN IA AND MN THIS MORNING. WILL HAVE
TO DEAL HOWEVER WITH SECONDARY WAA WING OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
CURRENTLY PERCOLATING ACRS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IA THIS MORNING
ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MS RVR THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z BEFORE THEY TOO
START TO DIURNALLY WEAKEN AND DECAY. WITH SOUPY BOUNDARY LAYER AND
AIRMASS OF 1.7 TO 2 INCH PW/S...LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY
SOME URBAN AND SMALL STREAM TYPE FLOODING THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS
MORNING ACTIVITY. THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT TRYING TO RETREAT
NORTHWARD ALONG WITH SOME MCS-FORCING PARAMETERS MOVING ACRS CENTRAL
INTO EASTERN IA SHOULD INITIATE SOME NEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT
ACRS PORTIONS OF THE DVN CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
FAVORED AREAS OF DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.
HIGH PW/SATURATED AIRMASS AND WEAK SHEAR SUGGEST THAT MAIN CONCERN
AGAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS OPPOSED TO SVR WX...ALTHOUGH A LOW
CHC OF BOWING SEGMENTS FEEDING ON HIGH CAPE AND POSSIBLY PRODUCING
WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH REMAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. TOUGH TO DEFINE
AREAS OF LIKELY OR HIGHER POPS AND WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO HIGH
CHC POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA INTO THE EVENING.  CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
AGAIN TO BE A FACTOR WITH WARM UP POTENTIAL...BUT MAY BE ENOUGH
BREAKS AND RECOVERY INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR THE CWA TO ATTAIN HIGH
TEMPS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.

TONIGHT...MUCH OF ORGANIZED MCS INDUCING PARAMETERS AGAIN FOCUS BACK
ON THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WILL STILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO CARRY MODERATE
TO HIGH CHC POPS CWA-WIDE AS THE LLVL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO WAVER
THOUGH EASTERN IA AND NORTHWEST IL UNDER ROUNDS OF ELEVATED WAA AND
WEAK TO MODERATE RIDGE-RIDING WAVES OR MCV/S ROTATING FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND TOWARD THE WESTERN GRT
LKS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING IN AREAS THAT GET HIT
REPEATEDLY BY RAINFALL COMING DOWN AT RATES OF 1.5 TO 2
INCHES AN HOUR IN TROPICAL-LIKE AIRMASS CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY
SIGNIFICANT WX CONCERN TONIGHT. WILL GO WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
NORTH...AND LOW TO MID 70S IN THE SOUTH IN CONTINUED HIGH SFC DPT
FIELDS.     ..12..

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...
W/SW FLOW WITH EMBEDDED IMPULSES ALONG WITH EXTREMELY MOIST AIRMASS
(PW/S NEAR 2 INCHES) AND FRONTAL ZONE IN THE VICINITY... WILL
RESULT IN SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IMPACTING PORTIONS OF
THE AREA THROUGH MON... AND HAVE CONTINUED WITH MOD/HIGH CHC POPS
MOST OF THE AREA INTO MON NGT. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH
LOCATION OF BOUNDARIES AS NON-LINEAR PROCESSES DOMINATE... WHICH
PRECLUDES FROM GOING HIGHER ON POPS ATTIM. DEEP WARM AND MOIST
VERTICAL PROFILE SUGGEST SEVERE WX THREAT LOW... WITH GUSTY WINDS
BEING THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT. MAIN CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WITH TRAINING
AND HIGH RAINFALL RATES GIVEN DEEP WARM LAYER ABOVE 0C ENHANCING WARM
RAIN PROCESSES. HIGH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL ON SUN TRANSITION TO BELOW
NORMAL MON-TUE WITH SOME AREAS POTENTIALLY STRUGGLING TO REACH 70F ON
MON ACROSS THE NORTH WITH CLOUDS AND PCPN. LOWS TRENDING NEAR NORMAL.
GENERAL SUGGESTION OF DRYING OUT INDICATED BY MIDWEEK WITH PASSAGE
OF SOUTHWEST ENERGY THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST WHICH IN TURN SENDS
COLD FRONT WELL SOUTH WITH COOLER...DRIER AIR SETTLING IN. BUT...
LULL IN PCPN APPEARS TO BE RATHER SHORT-LIVED AS PATTERN RECYCLES
WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY DROPPING DOWN IN PERSISTENT WESTERN TROUGH.
W/SW FLOW ALOFT WILL SHUTTLE IMPULSES ACROSS REGION AND COMBINE WITH
RETREATING SFC BOUNDARY FOR RETURN OF UNSETTLED/ACTIVE WX WITH
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE LATE WEEK.     ..05..

&&

.AVIATION...
ROUNDS OF MVFR CU AND STRATOCU THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR
LEVEL CU AND AC BY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH SFC LAYER MOISTURE MAY
MAKE FOR FOG OF 3-5SM THROUGH SUNRISE IN VCNTY OF MOST TERMINALS.
SCTRD CONVECTION IN THE VCNTY OF CID THROUGH 15Z...POSSIBLY HEAVY
RAIN AND IFR VSBYS WITH STRONGER STORM CELLS. AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION TO BE SCTRD AN MAY COVER WITH VCNTY WORDING IN TAFS FROM
20Z THROUGH 05Z SUNDAY. MORE LIGHT FOG TONIGHT IN CONTINUED LIGHT
AND VARIABLE SFC WIND REGIME IN VCNTY OF WAVERING SFC BOUNDARY.
..12..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

12/05

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
946 AM CDT SAT JUN 12 2010

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-131500-
BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON-
CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON-
HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL-
WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON-
WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK-
946 AM CDT SAT JUN 12 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT.  HEAVY RAINS THIS MORNING...AND OVERNIGHT...WILL
CONTINUE TODAY...BEFORE DECREASING THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COMPLEX
OF STORMS MAY AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. FLASH FLOODING
IS POSSIBLE IN LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN EARLIER
TODAY...AND THEN SEE ADDITIONAL STORMS TONIGHT. THIS IS MOST
LIKELY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 30 IN IOWA AND ILLINOIS...AS WELL AS
NORTHEAST MISSOURI. A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING
WINDS ALSO IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA
THROUGH MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME... WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY
THREAT. OF MORE CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLASH FLOODING... DUE TO HIGH RAINFALL RATES OVER AN INCH PER
HOUR AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME AREAS SEEING REPEATED DEVELOPMENT.

AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN MIDWEEK...THE
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ERVIN

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
919 AM CDT SAT JUN 12 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0750 AM     HEAVY RAIN       WOODHULL                41.18N 90.32W
06/12/2010  M1.10 INCH       HENRY              IL   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            WATER SUPERVISOR REPORTED RAIN FELL WITHIN A 20 MINUTE
            PERIOD

&&

TAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
928 AM CDT SAT JUN 12 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 W CAMBRIDGE           41.30N 90.20W
06/12/2010  M1.10 INCH       HENRY              IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HEAVIEST RAIN FELL BETWEEN 715 AND 8 AM.

0926 AM     HEAVY RAIN       KEITHSBURG              41.10N 90.94W
06/12/2010  M2.21 INCH       MERCER             IL   PUBLIC

            RAINFALL IN PAST 24 HOURS

&&

TAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
948 AM CDT SAT JUN 12 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0947 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 NW KEWANEE            41.26N 89.96W
06/12/2010  M0.94 INCH       HENRY              IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RAINFALL TOTAL SINCE 7 AM

&&

TAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1055 AM CDT SAT JUN 12 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0947 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 WNW MORRISON          41.81N 89.98W
06/12/2010  M0.25 INCH       WHITESIDE          IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STORM TOTAL

1054 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 E WHAT CHEER          41.41N 92.28W
06/12/2010  M1.14 INCH       KEOKUK             IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RAINFALL IN PAST HOUR. TOTAL RAINFALL SINCE 4 AM IS 2.31
            INCHES

&&

TAS