Severe Thunderstorm Warning 50, NWS Quad Cities, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
945 PM CDT WED MAY 12 2010

.UPDATE...
JUST UPDATED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO ADD IN BUCHANAN...DELAWARE AND
DUBUQUE COUNTIES. AN EAST WEST LINE OF STORMS LIFTED NE THROUGH
THESE COUNTIES EARLY THIS EVENING DROPPING AN INCH OR SO OF RAIN
WHICH MOISTENED UP THE SOIL. THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
WAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE PLAINS WILL CONTINUE BRING MORE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS TO THESE COUNTIES. FOR THE REST OF THE AREA NO CHANGES
TO THE GOING FORECAST AS THE PCPN FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAINS STILL EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT.  ..DLF..

&&

.AVIATION /PREVIOUS DISSCUSSION/...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS MOVES ACROSS EASTERN IA.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY IFR MAINLY DUE TO LOW CIGS
TONIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING. EVEN OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS...
PERIODS OF STRONG EASTERLY WINDS AS HIGH AS 20 TO 30 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. SOME STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING PERIOD COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND
WIND GUSTS TO 45 KTS. RAIN WILL END FROM W TO E ON THU AS SYSTEM
SENDS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL VEER WINDS AROUND
TO THE SW THEN W BY AFTERNOON. ..SHEETS..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-
     CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-IOWA-JACKSON-
     JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LINN-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-
     VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR DES MOINES-LEE.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR JO DAVIESS.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-
     HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK
     ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR SCOTLAND.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR CLARK.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
700 PM CDT WED MAY 12 2010

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-130930-
BENTON IA-BUCHANAN IA-BUREAU IL-CARROLL IL-CEDAR IA-CLARK MO-
CLINTON IA-DELAWARE IA-DES MOINES IA-DUBUQUE IA-HANCOCK IL-
HENDERSON IL-HENRY IA-HENRY IL-IOWA IA-JACKSON IA-JEFFERSON IA-
JO DAVIESS IL-JOHNSON IA-JONES IA-KEOKUK IA-LEE IA-LINN IA-LOUISA IA-
MCDONOUGH IL-MERCER IL-MUSCATINE IA-PUTNAM IL-ROCK ISLAND IL-
SCOTLAND MO-SCOTT IA-STEPHENSON IL-VAN BUREN IA-WARREN IL-
WASHINGTON IA-WHITESIDE IL-
700 PM CDT WED MAY 12 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS A
WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH TOWARD THE AREA. THE MAIN THREAT IS HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...LIKELY.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF A VINTON
IOWA TO GALENA ILLINOIS LINE.

SOILS OVER MOST OF THE AREA ARE NEAR SATURATION FROM RECENT
RAINFALL. THE HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT WILL QUICKLY RUN OFF INTO AREA
STREAMS AND CREEKS PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT RISES ON RIVERS.

SMALL HAIL CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED FROM ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS
ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF A WHAT CHEER IOWA TO NEW WINDSOR ILLINOIS LINE.

AREA RIVERS ARE EXPERIENCING FLOODING. HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT WILL
RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CREST FORECASTS. PLEASE
SEE THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS AND FLOOD WARNINGS FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT. HOWEVER... SPOTTERS
ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT FLASH FLOODING AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF 1 INCH.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1017 PM CDT WED MAY 12 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0924 PM     HAIL             INDEPENDENCE            42.45N 91.95W
05/12/2010  E0.25 INCH       BUCHANAN           IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

0937 PM     HAIL             1 N MANCHESTER          42.49N 91.46W
05/12/2010  E0.25 INCH       DELAWARE           IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ALSO VERY HEAVY RAINS.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1041 PM CDT WED MAY 12 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1035 PM     HAIL             6 NNW KEOKUK            40.48N 91.45W
05/12/2010  E1.25 INCH       LEE                IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HALF DOLLAR SIZED HAIL.

&&

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