Severe Thunderstorm Warning 48, NWS Quad Cities, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
945 PM CDT WED MAY 12 2010

.UPDATE...
JUST UPDATED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO ADD IN BUCHANAN...DELAWARE AND
DUBUQUE COUNTIES. AN EAST WEST LINE OF STORMS LIFTED NE THROUGH
THESE COUNTIES EARLY THIS EVENING DROPPING AN INCH OR SO OF RAIN
WHICH MOISTENED UP THE SOIL. THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
WAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE PLAINS WILL CONTINUE BRING MORE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS TO THESE COUNTIES. FOR THE REST OF THE AREA NO CHANGES
TO THE GOING FORECAST AS THE PCPN FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAINS STILL EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT.  ..DLF..

&&

.AVIATION /PREVIOUS DISSCUSSION/...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS MOVES ACROSS EASTERN IA.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY IFR MAINLY DUE TO LOW CIGS
TONIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING. EVEN OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS...
PERIODS OF STRONG EASTERLY WINDS AS HIGH AS 20 TO 30 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. SOME STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING PERIOD COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND
WIND GUSTS TO 45 KTS. RAIN WILL END FROM W TO E ON THU AS SYSTEM
SENDS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL VEER WINDS AROUND
TO THE SW THEN W BY AFTERNOON. ..SHEETS..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-
     CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-IOWA-JACKSON-
     JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LINN-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-
     VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR DES MOINES-LEE.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR JO DAVIESS.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-
     HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK
     ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR SCOTLAND.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR CLARK.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
700 PM CDT WED MAY 12 2010

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-130930-
BENTON IA-BUCHANAN IA-BUREAU IL-CARROLL IL-CEDAR IA-CLARK MO-
CLINTON IA-DELAWARE IA-DES MOINES IA-DUBUQUE IA-HANCOCK IL-
HENDERSON IL-HENRY IA-HENRY IL-IOWA IA-JACKSON IA-JEFFERSON IA-
JO DAVIESS IL-JOHNSON IA-JONES IA-KEOKUK IA-LEE IA-LINN IA-LOUISA IA-
MCDONOUGH IL-MERCER IL-MUSCATINE IA-PUTNAM IL-ROCK ISLAND IL-
SCOTLAND MO-SCOTT IA-STEPHENSON IL-VAN BUREN IA-WARREN IL-
WASHINGTON IA-WHITESIDE IL-
700 PM CDT WED MAY 12 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS A
WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH TOWARD THE AREA. THE MAIN THREAT IS HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...LIKELY.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF A VINTON
IOWA TO GALENA ILLINOIS LINE.

SOILS OVER MOST OF THE AREA ARE NEAR SATURATION FROM RECENT
RAINFALL. THE HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT WILL QUICKLY RUN OFF INTO AREA
STREAMS AND CREEKS PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT RISES ON RIVERS.

SMALL HAIL CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED FROM ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS
ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF A WHAT CHEER IOWA TO NEW WINDSOR ILLINOIS LINE.

AREA RIVERS ARE EXPERIENCING FLOODING. HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT WILL
RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CREST FORECASTS. PLEASE
SEE THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS AND FLOOD WARNINGS FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT. HOWEVER... SPOTTERS
ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT FLASH FLOODING AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF 1 INCH.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
856 PM CDT WED MAY 12 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0850 PM     HAIL             1 N INDEPENDENCE        42.48N 91.89W
05/12/2010  E0.88 INCH       BUCHANAN           IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NICKEL SIZED HAIL.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
911 PM CDT WED MAY 12 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0910 PM     HAIL             S AURORA                42.62N 91.73W
05/12/2010  M0.75 INCH       BUCHANAN           IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DLF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
929 PM CDT WED MAY 12 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0912 PM     HAIL             LAMONT                  42.60N 91.64W
05/12/2010  M1.00 INCH       BUCHANAN           IA   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            VOLUNTEER FIRE DEPARTMENT REPORTED QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

&&

HAASE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
931 PM CDT WED MAY 12 2010

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-015-016-
024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-130330-
LEE IA-VAN BUREN IA-DES MOINES IA-JEFFERSON IA-HENRY IA-DUBUQUE IA-
DELAWARE IA-BUCHANAN IA-JACKSON IA-JONES IA-BENTON IA-LINN IA-
CLINTON IA-CEDAR IA-IOWA IA-JOHNSON IA-SCOTT IA-MUSCATINE IA-
WASHINGTON IA-KEOKUK IA-LOUISA IA-JO DAVIESS IL-MCDONOUGH IL-
ROCK ISLAND IL-HANCOCK IL-WARREN IL-HENDERSON IL-MERCER IL-HENRY IL-
CLARK MO-SCOTLAND MO-
931 PM CDT WED MAY 12 2010

...STRONG EAST WINDS...

EAST WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING OVER 40 MPH AT TIMES ACROSS PARTS OF
EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IOWA THIS EVENING. THE STRONGEST WIND
GUSTS WERE OCCURRING JUST BEHIND A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
INDEPENDENCE AREA SOUTH THROUGH BURLINGTON AND KEOKUK.

THE STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES.

&&

LAT...LON 4019 9146 4025 9151 4030 9227 4060 9226
      4061 9220 4116 9219 4116 9242 4149 9242
      4151 9231 4229 9231 4230 9207 4262 9209
      4267 9078 4263 9069 4252 9063 4251 9038
      4027 9046 4028 9091 4019 9092

DLF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
940 PM CDT WED MAY 12 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0935 PM     HAIL             1 S MANCHESTER          42.47N 91.46W
05/12/2010  M1.00 INCH       DELAWARE           IA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

&&

HAASE