Severe Thunderstorm Warning 35, NWS Quad Cities, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1220 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

.DISCUSSION...PRELIMINARY...
THIS PRODUCT HAS BEEN SENT EARLY DUE TO IMPENDING SEVERE WEATHER.
VERY STRONG SHEAR...MODEST INSTABILITY...AND EXCEPTIONALLY STRONG
FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION ALONG AND
JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE EVENING OVER THE CWA. A
MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE FOUND OVER THE AREA UNTIL MID EVENING...WHEN
THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES THROUGH A SUFFICIENTLY DEEP LAYER TO
PREVENT DOWNDRAFTS FROM PUNCHING THROUGH TO THE SURFACE. BY
00Z...THE LIKELY MODE OF CONVECTION WILL BE A SEVERE SQUALL
LINE...WITH TORNADO POTENTIAL CONTINUING ON ANY DISCRETE CELLS AHEAD
OF IT...AND THROUGH ANY NOTCHES IN THE LINE. A FAST MOVEMENT OF
CELLS NORTHEAST AT 50 TO 70 MPH WILL CONTINUE...WITH A SLOWER
EASTWARD TRANSLATION EXPECTED AS FORCING AND FRONT MOVE EAST.
STORMS AND RAINFALL SHOULD BE LARGELY DONE BY MIDNIGHT IN THE EAST.

SATURDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK BREEZY AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY...THEN
CLOUDING UP TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER STRONG WAVE
OF UPPER ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS STILL
EXPECTED TO CLIP AT LEAST THE SOUTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA SATURDAY
NIGHT....WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST BEYOND SUNDAY...AS THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO BE PREFERRED TO THE GFS AND NAM. THIS MORE OR LESS
INDICATES A MILD FORECAST...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
..ERVIN..

&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL ERODE QUICKLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH 22Z
THIS AFTERNOON WITH APPROACHING VERY FAST MOVING THUNDERSTORMS OUT
OF NORTHERN MO. VERTICAL WIND PROFILES SUGGEST VERY TURBULENT
AIRMASS ALOFT FROM 2K-12000 FT AGL...BUT GENERALLY UNIDIRECTIONAL
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. PRIME CONVECTION WINDOW IMPACTING THE TERMINALS
LOOKS TO BE FROM 22Z FRI THROUGH 03Z SAT. STORMS MAY MIX DOWN WIND
GUSTS OVER 50 KTS FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT BRL AND MLI AROUND
00Z SAT. AFTER STORMS EXIT...EXPECT SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS FROM 220-250
DEGREES AT 10-15 KTS AND CIGS RISING ABOVE 5K FT.      ..12..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

ERVIN/12

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1236 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1222 PM     HAIL             1 SE DOWNING            40.48N 92.36W
04/30/2010  E0.50 INCH       SCOTLAND           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME SIZE HAIL

1222 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 SE DOWNING            40.48N 92.36W
04/30/2010  E50 MPH          SCOTLAND           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            40 TO 50 MPH WINDS

&&

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