Severe Thunderstorm Warning 134, NWS Quad Cities, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
310 PM CDT FRI JUL 23 2010

.DISCUSSION...
WILL BE CONCISE DUE TO SIGNIFICANT ONGOING WATER ISSUES...DEVELOPING
NEXT CONVECTIVE EVENT WITH HEAVY RAIN UNFOLDING.  MAJOR WATER EVENT
EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL 1/2 OF FORECAST AREA NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS WITH
WIDESPREAD 2 PLUS INCH AMOUNTS WITH LOCALLY 5 PLUS INCH AMOUNTS
LIKELY.

TONIGHT...UPPED POPS TO CATEGORICAL OR LIKELY ALL BUT EXTREME SOUTH
SECTIONS. ADDED HEAVY RAIN WORDING WITH STRONG WINDS THIS EVENING.
LOCAL TOOLS AND TECHNIQUES SUGGEST TRAININGS STORMS WITH T-BONING
POTENTIAL WITH ARRIVAL NEXT MCS FROM WEST MID-LATE EVENING.
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL RATES AOA 2 INCHES PROBABLE DUE TO HIGH PW/S AOA
2 INCHES TO NEAR 2.5 INCHES. SOME LOCAL TECHNIQUES SUGGEST 6 TO 8
PLUS INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE...SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. BEST ESTIMATES
ARE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AXIS TO OCCUR 30-40 MILES EITHER SIDE OF SQI-
IOW-OTM LINE. WILL BE INCREASING FFA COVERAGE TO INCLUDE AREAS ALONG
AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 34. AGAIN...CONCERN IS THIS EVENT HAS POTENTIAL
FOR HIGHER ENDING FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING IF LOCALLY 5 INCH
AMOUNTS DO OCCUR OR 2 PLUS INCH AMOUNTS FALLS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 ON
TOP RAIN EVENT LAST NIGHT INTO THIS MORNING.

SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...MINOR CHANGES TO FORECAST.  SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXITING AS FRONT PASSES.  THEN SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  TUESDAY ONWARD...RETURN TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL AND HUMID WITH RISK OF STORMS EACH DAY...MAINLY PULSE
VARIETY IN PM AND EVENING HOURS.  NEXT FRONT MAY ARRIVE THU/FRI
TIME PERIOD THAT SHOULD BE CONFIRMED NEXT DAY OR SO.   ..NICHOLS..

&&

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH PERIODS OF MVFR TO BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS UNTIL 12 TO 15Z.  CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE
MORNING AS PRECIPITATION ENDS AND FRONT MOVES ACROSS AREA BY LATE
AFTERNOON.  ..NICHOLS..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-
     CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-IOWA-
     JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LINN-LOUISA-
     MUSCATINE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR DES MOINES-HENRY
     IA-JEFFERSON-LEE-VAN BUREN.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-
     HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-
     STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BUREAU-HANCOCK-
     HENDERSON-HENRY IL-MCDONOUGH-PUTNAM-WARREN.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

&&

NICHOLS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
340 PM CDT FRI JUL 23 2010

...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH RISK OF
MAJOR FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING...

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-240900-
BENTON IA-BUCHANAN IA-BUREAU IL-CARROLL IL-CEDAR IA-CLARK MO-CLINTON
IA-DELAWARE IA-DES MOINES IA-DUBUQUE IA-HANCOCK IL-HENDERSON IL-HENRY
IA-HENRY IL-IOWA IA-JACKSON IA-JEFFERSON IA-JO DAVIESS IL-JOHNSON IA-
JONES IA-KEOKUK IA-LEE IA-LINN IA-LOUISA IA-MCDONOUGH IL-MERCER IL-
MUSCATINE IA-PUTNAM IL-ROCK ISLAND IL-SCOTLAND MO-SCOTT IA-
STEPHENSON IL-VAN BUREN IA-WARREN IL-WASHINGTON IA-WHITESIDE IL-
340 PM CDT FRI JUL 23 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

EPISODES OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
ADDITIONAL RAIN TOTALS OF 1 TO LOCALLY OVER 5 INCHES BY SATURDAY
MORNING.  LOCATIONS MOST AT RISK FOR RAIN AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES OR MORE
IS 40 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A STERLING ILLINOIS TO OTTUMWA IOWA LINE.
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA. ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...DAMAGING WINDS UP TO
70 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. THE MOST LIKELY TIME PERIOD WOULD BE UNTIL MID
EVENING.

A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL EARLY EVENING FOR AREAS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A HIGHWAY 34 LINE AND ALSO WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

SEVERAL AREA RIVERS ARE EXPERIENCING FLOODING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
FLOOD STATEMENTS AND FLOOD WARNINGS FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

MORE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY...WITH A SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO BE A THREAT SATURDAY.
SEVERAL MORE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE THREATS...IF
ANY...AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
ANY REPORTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WOULD BE APPRECIATED.

NICHOLS

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
309 PM CDT FRI JUL 23 2010

IAZ067-068-077-078-ILZ015-016-024-232115-
HENRY-LOUISA-MERCER-MUSCATINE-ROCK ISLAND-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-
309 PM CDT FRI JUL 23 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING ACROSS MUSCATINE AND LOUISA COUNTIES...

AT 303 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CONESVILLE...OR 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF
COLUMBUS JUNCTION...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

* THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  LETTS AROUND 315 PM CDT...
  FRUITLAND AROUND 325 PM CDT...
  MUSCATINE AROUND 330 PM CDT...
  ILLINOIS CITY AND FAIRPORT AROUND 340 PM CDT...
  MONTPELIER AROUND 350 PM CDT...
  ANDALUSIA...HAMLET AND BUFFALO AROUND 355 PM CDT...

ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL...AND WINDS 50 TO 60 MPH...ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS STORM.

SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FRIDAY
EVENING FOR SOUTHEASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS.

LAT...LON 4140 9159 4143 9137 4155 9135 4153 9040
      4146 9041 4145 9044 4137 9044 4110 9050
      4120 9171
TIME...MOT...LOC 2008Z 266DEG 36KT 4136 9135

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