Severe Thunderstorm Warning 133, NWS Quad Cities, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
310 PM CDT FRI JUL 23 2010

.DISCUSSION...
WILL BE CONCISE DUE TO SIGNIFICANT ONGOING WATER ISSUES...DEVELOPING
NEXT CONVECTIVE EVENT WITH HEAVY RAIN UNFOLDING.  MAJOR WATER EVENT
EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL 1/2 OF FORECAST AREA NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS WITH
WIDESPREAD 2 PLUS INCH AMOUNTS WITH LOCALLY 5 PLUS INCH AMOUNTS
LIKELY.

TONIGHT...UPPED POPS TO CATEGORICAL OR LIKELY ALL BUT EXTREME SOUTH
SECTIONS. ADDED HEAVY RAIN WORDING WITH STRONG WINDS THIS EVENING.
LOCAL TOOLS AND TECHNIQUES SUGGEST TRAININGS STORMS WITH T-BONING
POTENTIAL WITH ARRIVAL NEXT MCS FROM WEST MID-LATE EVENING.
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL RATES AOA 2 INCHES PROBABLE DUE TO HIGH PW/S AOA
2 INCHES TO NEAR 2.5 INCHES. SOME LOCAL TECHNIQUES SUGGEST 6 TO 8
PLUS INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE...SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. BEST ESTIMATES
ARE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AXIS TO OCCUR 30-40 MILES EITHER SIDE OF SQI-
IOW-OTM LINE. WILL BE INCREASING FFA COVERAGE TO INCLUDE AREAS ALONG
AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 34. AGAIN...CONCERN IS THIS EVENT HAS POTENTIAL
FOR HIGHER ENDING FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING IF LOCALLY 5 INCH
AMOUNTS DO OCCUR OR 2 PLUS INCH AMOUNTS FALLS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 ON
TOP RAIN EVENT LAST NIGHT INTO THIS MORNING.

SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...MINOR CHANGES TO FORECAST.  SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXITING AS FRONT PASSES.  THEN SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  TUESDAY ONWARD...RETURN TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL AND HUMID WITH RISK OF STORMS EACH DAY...MAINLY PULSE
VARIETY IN PM AND EVENING HOURS.  NEXT FRONT MAY ARRIVE THU/FRI
TIME PERIOD THAT SHOULD BE CONFIRMED NEXT DAY OR SO.   ..NICHOLS..

&&

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH PERIODS OF MVFR TO BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS UNTIL 12 TO 15Z.  CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE
MORNING AS PRECIPITATION ENDS AND FRONT MOVES ACROSS AREA BY LATE
AFTERNOON.  ..NICHOLS..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-
     CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-IOWA-
     JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LINN-LOUISA-
     MUSCATINE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR DES MOINES-HENRY
     IA-JEFFERSON-LEE-VAN BUREN.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-
     HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-
     STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BUREAU-HANCOCK-
     HENDERSON-HENRY IL-MCDONOUGH-PUTNAM-WARREN.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

&&

NICHOLS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
427 AM CDT FRI JUL 23 2010

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-240930-
BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON-
CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON-
HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL-
WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON-
WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK-
427 AM CDT FRI JUL 23 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A SIGNIFICANT RISK
TODAY...GENERALLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR...WHERE EXTREMELY
HEAVY RAIN HAS FALLEN DURING THE PAST 2 DAYS. ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 34. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IS FORECASTING A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS AS WELL...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY
THREAT TODAY AND TONIGHT. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS LOADED WITH
MOISTURE.

WHILE STORMS WILL BE THE PRIMARY PROBLEM IN THE NORTH...THE HEAT
WILL BE DANGEROUS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH. MID DAY THROUGH EARLY
EVENING HEAT INDEX READINGS WILL LIKELY REACH TO 100 TO 105 RANGE
ONCE AGAIN TODAY...WHICH IS A DANGEROUS LEVEL FOR OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES...AND FOR LOCATIONS WITHOUT AIR CONDITIONING. SOME
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 MAY SEE HEAT INDEX READINGS REACH
NEAR 110 DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT TIL 7 PM FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

AREA RIVERS ARE EXPERIENCING FLOODING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
FLOOD STATEMENTS AND FLOOD WARNINGS FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

MORE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY...WITH A SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO BE A THREAT
SATURDAY. SEVERAL MORE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE
THREATS AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1049 AM CDT FRI JUL 23 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1049 AM     FLASH FLOOD      PEARL CITY              42.27N 89.83W
07/23/2010                   STEPHENSON         IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            8 INCHES OF FLOWING WATER ACROS ROUTE 73...ROAD CLOSED
            NEAR PEARL CITY.

&&

TG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1059 AM CDT FRI JUL 23 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 AM     HEAVY RAIN       5 E GALENA              42.42N 90.33W
07/23/2010  M4.04 INCH       JO DAVIESS         IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RAINFALL AMOUNT SINCE MIDNIGHT.

1030 AM     HEAVY RAIN       5 E GALENA              42.42N 90.33W
07/23/2010  M5.94 INCH       JO DAVIESS         IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24-HR RAINFALL TOTAL SINCE 1030AM YESTERDAY MORNING.

&&

TG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1139 AM CDT FRI JUL 23 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 AM     FLOOD            FREEPORT                42.29N 89.63W
07/23/2010                   STEPHENSON         IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HIGHWAY 26 JUST SOUTH OF FREEPORT CLOSED DUE TO WATER
            OVER ROAD.

&&

TG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1157 AM CDT FRI JUL 23 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 AM     HEAVY RAIN       SSE SHANNON             42.15N 89.74W
07/23/2010  M5.75 INCH       CARROLL            IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RAINFALL TOTAL FROM 11 PM THROUGH 9 AM THIS MORNING.

&&

MIKEZ

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
309 PM CDT FRI JUL 23 2010

IAZ067-068-077-078-ILZ015-016-024-232115-
HENRY-LOUISA-MERCER-MUSCATINE-ROCK ISLAND-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-
309 PM CDT FRI JUL 23 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING ACROSS MUSCATINE AND LOUISA COUNTIES...

AT 303 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CONESVILLE...OR 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF
COLUMBUS JUNCTION...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

* THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  LETTS AROUND 315 PM CDT...
  FRUITLAND AROUND 325 PM CDT...
  MUSCATINE AROUND 330 PM CDT...
  ILLINOIS CITY AND FAIRPORT AROUND 340 PM CDT...
  MONTPELIER AROUND 350 PM CDT...
  ANDALUSIA...HAMLET AND BUFFALO AROUND 355 PM CDT...

ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL...AND WINDS 50 TO 60 MPH...ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS STORM.

SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FRIDAY
EVENING FOR SOUTHEASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS.

LAT...LON 4140 9159 4143 9137 4155 9135 4153 9040
      4146 9041 4145 9044 4137 9044 4110 9050
      4120 9171
TIME...MOT...LOC 2008Z 266DEG 36KT 4136 9135