Severe Thunderstorm Warning 196, NWS Des Moines, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
341 AM CDT TUE JUN 22 2010

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AGAIN TODAY AS MORNING MCS IS ARRIVING A BIT
EARLY AND BEHAVING DIFFERENTLY WITH STRONG POST MCS DRYING AND WINDS
...LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH SUBSIDENCE IN MID LEVELS. CURRENT MOVEMENT
WOULD PUT BACK EDGE ALMOST TO I-35 BY 12-13Z...WHICH WOULD ALLOW
PLENTY TIME FOR HEATING UP AND DESTABILIZATION DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS. HAVE GONE WITH THE HIGHEST POPS FOR THIS MORNING. NONE OF THE
NUMERICAL MODELS IS HANDLING THE CURRENT ACTIVITY VERY WELL...BUT
ALL INDICATE A WARM ADVECTION SURGE THAT IS STRONGER THAN THE PAST
FEW DAYS AND MAY FINALLY PUSH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY NORTH. WILL PLAY
IT CONSERVATIVE AND NOT PUSH THE BOUNDARY QUITE AS FAR NORTH AS THE
MODELS...SINCE NONE HAVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF MORNING THUNDERSTORMS.
AND AS ALWAYS...IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER TRAILING CONVECTION
OVER KANSAS AND NEBRASKA HOLDS TOGETHER...BUT IF IT DOES...THE
BOUNDARY WOULDN'T MAKE MUCH PROGRESS NORTH AT ALL. WHETHER THE
BOUNDARY IS NORTH OR SOUTH...THERE WILL BE STRONG INSTABILITY TO ITS
SOUTH AND AN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET FOR CONVERGENCE. KEPT A LOW
POP OVER THE NORTH HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT REALLY THINK THAT CHANCES FOR REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE
MUCH BETTER AFTER 00Z. IF STORMS WERE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF IOWA...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY FOR
ROTATING STORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE BIG QUESTION THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT IS WHERE WILL THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BE.  THE GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS IS FOR THE FRONT
TO LIFT TO THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING.  WE ARE EXPECTING ANOTHER MCS TONIGHT TO ROLL ACROSS
NORTHERN IOWA AND WITH THE ABUNDANT SHEAR AND CAPE IN PLACE IT
SHOULD BE QUITE ACTIVE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  I
WILL BE HITTING THE WORDING HARD IN THE HWO AND ZONES FOR THE
NORTHERN THIRD.  LINGERING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AS
THE UPPER WAVE PUSHES THROUGH THEN A RESPITE.  UPPER RIDGING TRIES
TO BUILD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT THE
MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF A WAVE PROGGED TO PUSH INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY/SATURDAY.  I PUT SMALL POPS ACROSS THE NORTH LATE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR NOW AND WILL ADJUST AS RUNS BECOME MORE
CONSISTENT.  OTHERWISE...NOT MANY CHANGES MADE TO TEMPS.  IF
ANYTHING A TWEAKED THEM FOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
22/06Z...IMMEDIATE CONCERNS ARE REMNANT CONVECTION NEAR KOTM...AND
LARGER MCS APPROACHING OVER KS/NE.  EXTRAPOLATION SUGGESTS COMPLEX
WILL AT LEAST CLIP KDSM BY 10Z...AND AFFECT KOTM MORE SO TOWARD 12Z
SO HAVE INCLUDED VFR VCSH/VCTS/CB WORDING FOR FOUR HOURS HITTING
KOTM HARDER.  BEYOND CRITICAL TAF PERIOD...HAVE LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN
FORECASTING CONVECTIVE TRENDS SO WILL LEAVE ANY MENTION OUT FOR NOW.
VARIOUS SCENARIOS INCLUDE MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TUE MORNING
AFFECTING KFOD/KMCW/KALO AS WELL AS SOUTHERN SITES...AND/OR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT DURING PEAK HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON IF AND
WHEN CURRENT NRN MO FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD.  PREFERRED STRATEGY IS TO
HIGHLIGHT CRITICAL TAF PERIOD TO DEAL WITH THESE CONTINGENCIES IN
EACH SUBSEQUENT ISSUANCE OR AMENDMENTS.

&&

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...JUNGBLUTH
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...SMALL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
437 AM CDT TUE JUN 22 2010

IAZ044>050-057>062-070>075-081>086-092>097-230945-
CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-
DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-MARION-
MAHASKA-ADAMS-UNION-CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-
DECATUR-WAYNE-APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
437 AM CDT TUE JUN 22 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A PORTION OF CENTRAL
IOWA...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 20.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING.
SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS TONIGHT MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREAT. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY THEN
AGAIN FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE SEVERE POTENTIAL OF
THE STORMS LATER THIS WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. AN EMERGENCY MANAGERS CONFERENCE CALL WILL BE
HELD TODAY.  THE TIME OF THE CALL WILL BE DETERMINED LATER THIS MORNING.

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-230945-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN-
WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-
437 AM CDT TUE JUN 22 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A PORTION OF CENTRAL IOWA
MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 20.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING THEN AGAIN BY
MID AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. THE STORMS THIS MORNING MAY PRODUCE
DAMAGING WIND. THE STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY
PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY THEN
AGAIN FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE SEVERE POTENTIAL OF
THE STORMS LATER THIS WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. AN EMERGENCY MANAGERS CONFERENCE CALL WILL BE
HELD TODAY.  THE TIME OF THE CALL WILL BE DETERMINED LATER THIS MORNING.

FAB

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
610 AM CDT TUE JUN 22 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 AM     TSTM WND GST     2 W LEIGHTON            41.34N 92.83W
06/22/2010  E60 MPH          MAHASKA            IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
615 AM CDT TUE JUN 22 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0614 AM     TSTM WND GST     OSKALOOSA               41.29N 92.64W
06/22/2010  E60 MPH          MAHASKA            IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
621 AM CDT TUE JUN 22 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0616 AM     TSTM WND GST     1 SW OTTUMWA            41.01N 92.43W
06/22/2010  E60 MPH          WAPELLO            IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WIND GUSTS 50 TO 60 MPH. SPOTTER ALSO NOTES REPORTS OF
            STREET FLOODING HEARD FROM POLICE SCANNER.

&&

JH