Severe Thunderstorm Warning 191, NWS Des Moines, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
341 AM CDT TUE JUN 22 2010

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AGAIN TODAY AS MORNING MCS IS ARRIVING A BIT
EARLY AND BEHAVING DIFFERENTLY WITH STRONG POST MCS DRYING AND WINDS
...LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH SUBSIDENCE IN MID LEVELS. CURRENT MOVEMENT
WOULD PUT BACK EDGE ALMOST TO I-35 BY 12-13Z...WHICH WOULD ALLOW
PLENTY TIME FOR HEATING UP AND DESTABILIZATION DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS. HAVE GONE WITH THE HIGHEST POPS FOR THIS MORNING. NONE OF THE
NUMERICAL MODELS IS HANDLING THE CURRENT ACTIVITY VERY WELL...BUT
ALL INDICATE A WARM ADVECTION SURGE THAT IS STRONGER THAN THE PAST
FEW DAYS AND MAY FINALLY PUSH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY NORTH. WILL PLAY
IT CONSERVATIVE AND NOT PUSH THE BOUNDARY QUITE AS FAR NORTH AS THE
MODELS...SINCE NONE HAVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF MORNING THUNDERSTORMS.
AND AS ALWAYS...IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER TRAILING CONVECTION
OVER KANSAS AND NEBRASKA HOLDS TOGETHER...BUT IF IT DOES...THE
BOUNDARY WOULDN'T MAKE MUCH PROGRESS NORTH AT ALL. WHETHER THE
BOUNDARY IS NORTH OR SOUTH...THERE WILL BE STRONG INSTABILITY TO ITS
SOUTH AND AN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET FOR CONVERGENCE. KEPT A LOW
POP OVER THE NORTH HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT REALLY THINK THAT CHANCES FOR REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE
MUCH BETTER AFTER 00Z. IF STORMS WERE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF IOWA...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY FOR
ROTATING STORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE BIG QUESTION THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT IS WHERE WILL THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BE.  THE GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS IS FOR THE FRONT
TO LIFT TO THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING.  WE ARE EXPECTING ANOTHER MCS TONIGHT TO ROLL ACROSS
NORTHERN IOWA AND WITH THE ABUNDANT SHEAR AND CAPE IN PLACE IT
SHOULD BE QUITE ACTIVE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  I
WILL BE HITTING THE WORDING HARD IN THE HWO AND ZONES FOR THE
NORTHERN THIRD.  LINGERING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AS
THE UPPER WAVE PUSHES THROUGH THEN A RESPITE.  UPPER RIDGING TRIES
TO BUILD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT THE
MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF A WAVE PROGGED TO PUSH INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY/SATURDAY.  I PUT SMALL POPS ACROSS THE NORTH LATE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR NOW AND WILL ADJUST AS RUNS BECOME MORE
CONSISTENT.  OTHERWISE...NOT MANY CHANGES MADE TO TEMPS.  IF
ANYTHING A TWEAKED THEM FOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
22/06Z...IMMEDIATE CONCERNS ARE REMNANT CONVECTION NEAR KOTM...AND
LARGER MCS APPROACHING OVER KS/NE.  EXTRAPOLATION SUGGESTS COMPLEX
WILL AT LEAST CLIP KDSM BY 10Z...AND AFFECT KOTM MORE SO TOWARD 12Z
SO HAVE INCLUDED VFR VCSH/VCTS/CB WORDING FOR FOUR HOURS HITTING
KOTM HARDER.  BEYOND CRITICAL TAF PERIOD...HAVE LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN
FORECASTING CONVECTIVE TRENDS SO WILL LEAVE ANY MENTION OUT FOR NOW.
VARIOUS SCENARIOS INCLUDE MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TUE MORNING
AFFECTING KFOD/KMCW/KALO AS WELL AS SOUTHERN SITES...AND/OR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT DURING PEAK HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON IF AND
WHEN CURRENT NRN MO FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD.  PREFERRED STRATEGY IS TO
HIGHLIGHT CRITICAL TAF PERIOD TO DEAL WITH THESE CONTINGENCIES IN
EACH SUBSEQUENT ISSUANCE OR AMENDMENTS.

&&

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...JUNGBLUTH
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...SMALL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
331 PM CDT MON JUN 21 2010

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-081>086-
092>097-222045-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN-
WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-
BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-
POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-ADAMS-UNION-
CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-APPANOOSE-
DAVIS-
331 PM CDT MON JUN 21 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. A FEW SUPER CELL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 BETWEEN 5 AND 10 PM THIS EVENING AND WOULD
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL...70 MPH WINDS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AFTER 10 PM WITH QUARTER SIZED HAIL AND
60 MPH WINDS POSSIBLE. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE FOR ALL OR PART OF THE AREA
THROUGH SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED BETWEEN 5 PM AND 10 PM THIS
EVENING SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

DONAVON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1032 PM CDT MON JUN 21 2010

IAZ085-096-220400-
APPANOOSE-MONROE-
1032 PM CDT MON JUN 21 2010

AT 1029 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER NORTH CENTRAL APPANOOSE COUNTY...MOVING EAST
AT 20 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...BRIEF MODERATE DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

* THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  MORAVIA BY 1050 PM CDT...
  UNIONVILLE BY 1100 PM CDT...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS
TREES. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS
PASSED.

PODRAZIK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1100 PM CDT MON JUN 21 2010

IAZ096-097-220500-
APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CENTERVILLE...BLOOMFIELD
1100 PM CDT MON JUN 21 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS EVENING...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
IOWA LATE THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG
PRODUCING UP TO NICKEL SIZED HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. THE
STORMS WILL PRIMARILY AFFECT EASTERN APPANOOSE AND DAVIS COUNTIES
THROUGH 100 AM.

SMALL

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