Severe Thunderstorm Warning 152, NWS Des Moines, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
635 AM CDT FRI JUN 18 2010

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
SQUALL LINE THAT MOVED THRU LAST NIGHT AND ERY THIS MRNG HAS PUSHED
AN OUTFLOW BNDRY ACRS THE STATE...BUT THE REAL CDFNT IS STILL WELL
OFF THE WEST.  MCS IS DECAYING RPDLY AS NEW CONVECTION IS BCMG
ESTABLISHED OVR NEBRASKA.  AMS SHOULD DESTABILIZE RATHER QUICKLY TDA
AND SEE NO REASON WHY THINGS WOULDN'T FIRE BY ERY THIS AFTN.  WILL
GO WITH ENHANCED WORDING FOR SEVERE WX THIS AFTN WITH THIS.  WITH
ERY DVLPMT WILL OPT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN JUST A TOUCH FROM
MOS.  SHOULD SEE CONVECTION MOVE TO THE E AND S OF THE STATE FOR THE
MOST PART LATER TNGT INTO SAT...BUT BREAK WILL BE SHORT LIVED. -PNA
PTRN CONTINUES WITH NO REAL LETUP IN SIGHT.  ROUNDS OF TSRA THIS
WEEKEND WILL LKLY LEAVE BEHIND FLOODING IN MOST RIVER BASINS AND
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SAT NGT AND SUN LOOKING LIKE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THAT.  NO REAL BIG CHNGS IN GOING FCSTS OTR THAN
TO SHAVE A FEW DEGREES OFF TEMPS.  CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL MAKE IT
DIFFICULT TO GET MUCH PAST THE MID 80S IN MOST AREAS.  WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE ESF FOR ALL OF THE FORECAST RAIN AND POTENTIAL FLOOD/FLASH
FLOOD ISSUES.

&&

.AVIATION...
18/12Z...A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NW IA THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE ACRS
THE STATE THIS EVENING.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE WIDEPSREAD IN MUCH
OF THE STATE TODAY WITH MVFR TO IFR NEAR ISOLD TO SCT TSRA THIS
MORNING IN WESTERN IN CNTRL IA.  MORE WIDEPSREAD THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE
STATE.  DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS BECOMING WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT WITH UNLIMITED CIGS AND
VSBYS AFTER 06Z.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...MS JUN 10
LONG TERM...MS JUN 10
AVIATION...COGIL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
505 AM CDT FRI JUN 18 2010

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-081>086-
092>097-191100-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN-
WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-
BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-
POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-ADAMS-UNION-
CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-APPANOOSE-
DAVIS-
505 AM CDT FRI JUN 18 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME NUMEROUS FROM MID DAY INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY MID DAY
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE FOR WIND GUSTS
OF 60 MPH OR MORE...LARGE HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THERE IS
ALSO AN ISOLATE TORNADO THREAT.

RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. PLEASE
REFER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...HOWEVER THE GREATEST THREAT IS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS LIKELY BETWEEN SATURDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THREE TO FOUR INCHES OF RAIN IS QUITE LIKELY OVER CENTRAL
IOWA...WITH SOME AREAS RECEIVING OVER 6 INCHES.

RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF THE AREA.  A
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA. PLEASE REFER TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BETWEEN
100 PM AND 900 PM.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1048 AM CDT FRI JUN 18 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1008 AM     TSTM WND DMG     4 NE DES MOINES         41.62N 93.56W
06/18/2010                   POLK               IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN ON ROADS

&&

JJOHNSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1100 AM CDT FRI JUN 18 2010

IAZ033>037-044>048-057>059-181800-
SAC-CALHOUN-WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-BOONE-
STORY-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SAC CITY...ROCKWELL CITY...FORT DODGE...
WEBSTER CITY...ELDORA...DENISON...CARROLL...JEFFERSON...BOONE...
AMES...AUDUBON...GUTHRIE CENTER...ADEL
1100 AM CDT FRI JUN 18 2010

...GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...

SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GUST TO 30 TO 40 MPH OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2
HOURS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER GUST AT TIMES. THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE LOCATED ALONG HIGHWAY 20 FROM WEBSTER CITY TO SAC
CITY AND ALONG THE HIGHWAY 30 CORRIDOR FROM AMES TO DENISON
THROUGH 1 PM CDT.

KLP

IAZ005-015>017-023>028-038-039-181800-
KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-
FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALGONA...EMMETSBURG...GARNER...
MASON CITY...POCAHONTAS...HUMBOLDT...CLARION...HAMPTON...
ALLISON...WAVERLY...GRUNDY CENTER...WATERLOO
1100 AM CDT FRI JUN 18 2010

...POTENTIAL STRONG STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH 1 PM CDT. SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 TO 50 MPH...AND
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO A THREAT.

KLP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1133 AM CDT FRI JUN 18 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1037 AM     TSTM WND DMG     PLEASANTVILLE           41.39N 93.27W
06/18/2010                   MARION             IA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POWERLINES AND TREES DOWN. DELAYED REPORT.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1137 AM CDT FRI JUN 18 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0915 AM     TSTM WND DMG     FONTANELLE              41.29N 94.56W
06/18/2010                   ADAIR              IA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS LARGE TREES DOWN...RANGING FROM 10 TO 12 INCHES
            IN DIAMETER.

0915 AM     TSTM WND DMG     6 W GREENFIELD          41.29N 94.56W
06/18/2010                   ADAIR              IA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            RANGE HOOD AND AIR CONDITIONERS BLOWN OFF ROOF OF NURSING
            HOME.

&&

KPODRAZI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1140 AM CDT FRI JUN 18 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0908 AM     TSTM WND DMG     GRAND JUNCTION          42.03N 94.24W
06/18/2010                   GREENE             IA   AMATEUR RADIO

            TWO LARGE TREES, TWO TO THREE FEET IN DIAMETER BLOWN
            OVER. CORRECTED FOR TIME.

&&

KPODRAZI

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