Severe Thunderstorm Warning 129, NWS Des Moines, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
645 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2010

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SURGE INTO THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF STRONG
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EJECTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO
NORTHERN PLAINS. SEVERAL CONCERNS RELATED TO SEVERE WEATHER AND
HYDROLOGY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. MODELS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE NAM A LITTLE MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE QPF...BUT OVERALL WENT WITH THE A BLEND OF
GFS/NAM/SREF.

INITIATION EXPECTED BETWEEN 21 TO 00Z ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA WITH A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OR POSSIBLY WEAK DRY LINE SURGING INTO EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.  SURFACE DEW POINTS RANGE IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. UNCAPPED
LARGE AREA OF MUCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 1500 TO NEAR OVER 4000
J/KG...WITH 0-3 KM CAPE RANGING 50-200 J/KG ACCORDING TO THE SREF.
IMPRESSIVE SHEAR VALUES...0-6KM BULK SHEAR 30-45KTS...0-1KM SHEAR
RANGING AROUND 25 KTS. THIS COMBINED WITH HIGH HELICITY VALUES AND
LCL HEIGHTS AROUND 2000 FEET WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADIC
SUPERCELLS WITH INITIAL DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING.

LATER TONIGHT...WITH LLJ DEVELOPING AND COLD FRONT ENTERING THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE...EXPECTING MERGING INTO MORE OF A
LINEAR STORM TYPE. CORFIDI VECTORS HAVE STORMS DEVELOPING SOUTH AND
EAST...AND STORM MOTION VECTORS COINCIDE WITH THE SOUTHEAST
MOVEMENT. EXPECTING DAMAGING WINDS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT LATER THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS MCS MAINTENANCE PROBABILITY OVER
80 PERCENT BY TONIGHT. PW RANGE IN THE 1 TO 2 INCHES
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE THINKING THE MCS WILL
PROPAGATE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WITH
3HR-FFG RANGING UNDER 2INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA...ISSUED FFA THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY AS IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO GET
SOME FLOODING ISSUES OVER THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VERY ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGHOUT DAYS 2-7.  STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVING
ENE INTO SRN CANADA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY PUSHING SYNOPTIC FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO NRN PLAINS AND ACROSS IA.  UPPER PATTERN BECOMES
ALMOST ZONAL LATE THIS WEEKEND OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST NORTH OF LARGE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS. ATMOSPHERE SHOULD RECOVER
QUICKLY ON FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF TONIGHT/S THUNDERSTORMS SETTING UP
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.  IF THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH OF IA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THERE MIGHT BE A
18-24 HOUR BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION.  MOISTURE AND THE BOUNDARY
RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.  SEE NO REASON WHY A MCS WILL NOT
DEVELOP NEAR WRN IA OR POINTS WEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND THEN MOVE EAST ACROSS IA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.  AFTER
THAT...OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME BUT THE DETAILS BECOME
INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT DUE TO ALL OF THE CONVECTION.  FORECASTED
PERSISTENCE WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER PCPN PROBABILITIES AT NIGHT VS
DAY.  TEMPERATURES NOT A HUGE CONCERN. WENT A LITTLE COOLER SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.  SATURDAY SINCE IA SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE FRONT AND
SUNDAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND PCPN.

WILL ISSUE ESF FOR ALL OF THE FORECAST RAIN AND POTENTIAL
FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD ISSUES.

&&

.AVIATION...
18/00Z...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALREADY IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN CWA...WITH ONLY IMMINENT THREATS TOWARD KMCW AND
POSSIBLY KFOD. ACTIVITY TRYING TO GET GOING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL IOWA
INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA...AND APPEARS IT WILL BECOME MORE VIGOROUS IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THEREFORE EXPECT A LINE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
THROUGH MOST TAF SITES BY LATE EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
HAVE TRIED TO TIME WITH VCTS/CB MENTIONS AT THIS TIME...WITH FURTHER
REFINEMENT COMING AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS FURTHER. OTHERWISE BOUNDARY
TO STALL OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA...AND MAY LINGER LONGER INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS KOTM. EXPECT A QUIETER LATTER PORTION OF
THE TAF PERIOD...WITH REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE BY LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-APPANOOSE-AUDUBON-CASS-CLARKE-DALLAS-
DAVIS-DECATUR-GUTHRIE-JASPER-LUCAS-MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION-MONROE-
POLK-POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-TAYLOR-UNION-WAPELLO-WARREN-WAYNE.

&&

SHORT TERM...KLP
LONG TERM...JAJ
AVIATION...MJB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
702 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2010

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-190015-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN-
WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-
702 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA
TONIGHT. BEFORE 900 PM...THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY WEST OF
I35. AFTER 900 PM...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS.

RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. PLEASE
REFER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW
OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...HOWEVER THE GREATEST THREAT IS FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL. HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS MOST LIKELY BETWEEN SATURDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...WHEN SEVERAL INCHES MAY FALL IN SOME AREAS.

RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. PLEASE
REFER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES
FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

IAZ044>050-057>062-070>075-081>086-092>097-190015-
CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-
DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-MARION-
MAHASKA-ADAMS-UNION-CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-
DECATUR-WAYNE-APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
702 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN AND AND THEN MOVE EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IOWA TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY SEVERE
THREAT IS LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS
POSSIBLE WEST IF I35 BEFORE 1000 PM. AT THE NIGHT GOES ON...HEAVY
RAIN WILL ALSO BECOME A THREAT WITH FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1000 PM THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.

RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF THE AREA.
PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW
OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...HOWEVER THE GREATEST THREAT IS FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL. HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS MOST LIKELY BETWEEN SATURDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...WHEN SEVERAL INCHES MAY FALL IN SOME AREAS.

RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. PLEASE
REFER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES
FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
622 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0607 PM     TORNADO          6 E RAKE                43.48N 93.81W
06/17/2010                   WINNEBAGO          IA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            CONE TORNADO. FROM KAAL

&&

PODRAZIK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
730 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0709 PM     HAIL             6 S AYRSHIRE            42.95N 94.83W
06/17/2010  E0.88 INCH       PALO ALTO          IA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            NICKEL AND HEAVY RAIN

&&

JB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
740 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0735 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     15 E EMMETSBURG         43.11N 94.38W
06/17/2010                   KOSSUTH            IA   STORM CHASER

            ROTATING RAIN CURTAINS...BRIEF FUNNEL

&&

JB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
743 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 PM     HAIL             1 W CYLINDER            43.09N 94.57W
06/17/2010  E0.88 INCH       PALO ALTO          IA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            REPORTED BY KICD RADIO

&&

JJOHNSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
748 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2010

IAZ005-006-015-016-023-024-033-034-044-045-180200-
KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-SAC-
CALHOUN-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALGONA...FOREST CITY...EMMETSBURG...
GARNER...POCAHONTAS...HUMBOLDT...SAC CITY...ROCKWELL CITY...
DENISON...CARROLL
748 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2010

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST OF ALGONA
SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR SAC CITY AND DENISON...WILL CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
AT THIS TIME STRONG WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...HAIL AT LEAST THE SIZE
OF NICKELS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SOME OF
THE STORMS ARE ROTATING...WITH FUNNEL CLOUDS HAVING BEEN REPORTED
EARLIER WITH STORMS ACROSS PALO ALTO COUNTY.

MJB

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