Wind Advisory 2, NWS State College, PA

Adams County, PA, Bedford County, PA, Blair County, PA, Cambria County, PA, Centre County, PA, Columbia County, PA, Cumberland County, PA, Dauphin County, PA, Franklin County, PA, Fulton County, PA, Huntingdon County, PA, Juniata County, PA, Lancaster County, PA, Lebanon County, PA, Mifflin County, PA, Montour County, PA, Northumberland County, PA, Perry County, PA, Schuylkill County, PA, Snyder County, PA, Somerset County, PA, Union County, PA, York County, PA

460 
WWUS71 KCTP 250930
NPWCTP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
430 AM EST MON JAN 25 2010

...STRONG AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING...

PAZ019-024>028-033>036-049>053-056>059-063>066-252000-
/O.CON.KCTP.WI.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-100125T2000Z/
SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-SOMERSET-
BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-NORTHUMBERLAND-
COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-
LANCASTER-
430 AM EST MON JAN 25 2010

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON. 

A COLD FRONT WILL SLICE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BRINGING OCCASIONAL
STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO THE ADVISORY AREA. 

ISOLATED WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 45 AND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE AS HEAVY
RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANY THE STRONG COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS
WILL BE IN ANY ORGANIZED SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT FORM...AS WELL AS
OVER HIGH TERRAIN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 31 TO 39 MPH OR
GUSTS OF 46 AND 57 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG MAY CAUSE
MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE WITHOUT EXTRA PRECAUTIONS. MOTORISTS IN
HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES SHOULD USE CAUTION UNTIL THE WIND SUBSIDES.
STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&

$$

LA CORTE

396 
WWUS71 KCTP 251658
NPWCTP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1158 AM EST MON JAN 25 2010

...WIND ADVISORY US CANCELLED...

.WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED.

PAZ019-024>028-033>036-049>053-056>059-063>066-251800-
/O.CAN.KCTP.WI.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-100125T2000Z/
SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-SOMERSET-
BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-NORTHUMBERLAND-
COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-
LANCASTER-
1158 AM EST MON JAN 25 2010

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS CANCELLED THE
WIND ADVISORY. 

WINDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE STATE. WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10
TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 35 MPH...BUT GUSTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO EXCEED 40 MPH.

$$

GARTNER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
902 PM EST SUN JAN 24 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AS DEEP
MOISTURE SURGES NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON...USHERING IN COLDER AIR WHICH WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE HEAVY RAIN EVENT IN PROGRESS...IT DOESN'T GET MORE
OBVIOUS THAN THIS...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED FROM LATE EVENING
THROUGH 15Z MON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THUS FAR ACROSS PA RANGE FROM
TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH AT PITTSBURGH AND DUBOIS...TO 0.73" AT
CLEARFIELD...ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND A FEW HUNDRETHS TO ONE TO TWO
TENTHS OVER EASTERN PA. SUFFICE TO SAY... NO FLOODING HAS OCCURRED
YET...BUT WITH 1.5 TO 2+ INCHES YET TO COME IN MANY AREAS...FLOOD
WATCHES REMAIN IN PLACE.

LATEST 18Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PAINT THE HEAVIEST QPF OVER
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN REGION...AS A SCREAMING SOUTHERLY JET (75 KTS
AT 850 MB) SURGES ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LOCAL ARW12 AND 4KM
SPC WRF INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR A NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAINBAND
TO SET IN THE PREDAWN HOURS AND MIX POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS TO THE SFC. T/TD SPREADS OF 39/39F IN CUMBERLAND MD AND
42/41F. NAM12 SURGES SFC DEWPOINTS FROM THEIR CURRENT READINGS
(38-40F) TOT HE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S FROM WILLIAMSPORT SOUTHWARD TO
THE MD BORDER. WE'VE SEEN TWO SUCH SIMILAR NOCTURNAL WIND EVENTS
IN THE LAST 6 MONTHS...SO WILL BE COLLABORATING A WIND ADVISORY
FOR A LARGE PORTION OF MY CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR THE
06Z TO 18Z TIME PERIOD. WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED T MENTIONS WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE AS WELL...SHARP 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE IS
VERY IMPRESSIVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AND 850MB LI/S DROP TO
NEAR ZERO AFT 06Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE OCCLD FNT WILL EXIT PENN BY 18Z MONDAY WITH HVY PRECIP
TAPERING OFF OVR ERN SXNS. AS ELUDED TO IN THE NEAR TERM...A GUSTY
FROPA AND WLY WIND SHIFT IS PSBL IN THE SUSQ VLY AND PTS E A FEW
HOURS EITHER SIDE OF 12Z. HIGH TEMPS WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY
BEFORE STEADY LLVL CAA RESULTS IN FALLING TEMPS FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE AFTN. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LOCATIONS OVR
FAR SERN PENN TOUCH 60F IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE TRIPLE POINT
LOW/FNTL WAVE IN THE WARM SECTOR. THE COLDER AIR ASCENDING THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT SHOULD MAKE FOR SOME RAIN TO SNOW SHOWERS INTO
MONDAY NIGHT WITH A LIGHT ACCUMS PSBL ESP OVR THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS
AND NW SNOWBELT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK TURNS DECIDEDLY COOLER WITH
THE USUAL WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN AND LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS
STAYING AN ISSUE THROUGH MID-WEEK. NEXT FROPA STILL SLATED FOR
THURS WITH PERHAPS A BURST OF WAA SNOW...FOLLOWED BY MORE
OROGRAPHICALLY/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS TO ROUND OUT THE WEEK.
MAIN UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE INVOLVES POTNL PHASING OF THE
LARGE SCALE SPLIT FLOW REGIME BY NEXT WEEKEND. OPERATIONAL MDLS
AND ENSEMBLES SHOW SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT INVOF THE GULF STREAM...BUT
TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON ANY DETAILS ATTM. WILL CONT TO MENTION
REDUNDANT CHC OF SNOW IN THE LATER PDS OF THE FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CIGS & VSBYS THIS AFTN AND TNGT. RAIN DVLPG
W-E ACROSS CNTRL & ERN PA IN AFTN. STRATUS...FOG...AND DRIZZLE
EAST IN ERY AFTN WITH RAIN LTR IN AFTN. SE SFC WNDS WILL BE GSTG
20-25 MPH AT EXPOSED LOCATIONS THRU TNGT. LLWS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS
A POWERFUL SOUTHERLY LOW LVL JET OVER 50 KNOTS MOVES OVR THE
AREA. COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT /09Z-13Z/
COULD POTENTIALLY BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG WIND GUSTS /OVR
30KTS/...ESP SOUTHERN PA. PARTIAL CLEARING MONDAY WITH LEFTOVER
RSHWRS AND MVFR CIGS PREVAILING XCP BCMG VFR LWR SUSQ VALLEY. SNW
SHWRS DVLPG MNLY WRN AREAS MON NGT WITH IFR VSBYS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE...MVFR/IFR SHSN W & MTNS.
WED...VFR WITH NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
THUR...VRBL CONDS WITH SHSN W MTNS.
FRI...MNLY VFR XCP PSBL LGT SNW DVLPG FAR S

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS OF 1-2" ARE STILL EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
TO 48 HOURS...WITH MOST OF THE PRECIP FALLING TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY. COLD-SEASON HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS COMBINED WITH THE FCSTD
RNFL WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT RISES OF AROUND 3/4 BANKFULL ALONG THE
LWR WEST BRANCH AND MAIN STEM SUSQ. RISES ALONG THE JUNIATA ARE
FCST TO BE AROUND 1/2 BANKFULL. AREAS MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO MINOR
FLOODING WILL BE THE SMALLER STREAMS/CREEKS/TRIBS FROM THE JUNIATA
TO THE LWR MAIN STEM. CRESTS ARE GENERALLY MON-TUE WITH SEVERAL
POINTS GOING ABOVE CAUTION AND SOME NEAR FLOOD STAGE.
RESIDUAL/MELTING ICE MAY ALSO LEAD TO JAMMING AS THE ICE BECOMES
DISLODGED WITHIN SMALLER STREAM CHANNELS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR PAZ004>006-010>012-
017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ019-024>028-033>036-
049>053-056>059-063>066.

&&

SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR
HYDROLOGY...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
250 PM EST SUN JAN 24 2010

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-252000-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-
NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-
JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-
SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-
NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-
ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
250 PM EST SUN JAN 24 2010

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.