River Flood Warning 12, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
249 PM EST MON JAN 25 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF PENNSYLVANIA BY THIS
EVENING. LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS WILL TURN TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT CROSSING EASTERN PA ATTM...WITH MAINLY JUST
LINGERING LIGHT RAINS SHOWERS ALONG IT. ISOLATED POST FRONTAL
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WERN MTNS AS WELL...WHICH WILL
CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVE AS COLD AIR SURGES INTO THE CWA.
LIGHT ACCUMS PSBL ESP OVR THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND NW SNOWBELT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
UPPER LOW CENTER LIFTS ACROSS WRN PA ON TUE BRINGING IN ANOTHER
SURGE OF COLD AIR...WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -10C BY 00Z WED
OVER ALL OF CENTRAL PA. THIS WILL CONTINUE ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL MTNS. AREAS EAST OF THE MTNS SHOULD SEE
NO MORE THAN A FLURRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK TURNS DECIDEDLY COOLER WITH
THE USUAL WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN AND LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS
STAYING AN ISSUE THROUGH MID-WEEK. NEXT FROPA STILL SLATED FOR
THURS WITH PERHAPS A BURST OF WAA SNOW...FOLLOWED BY MORE
OROGRAPHICALLY/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS TO ROUND OUT THE WEEK.
MAIN UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE INVOLVES POTNL PHASING OF THE
LARGE SCALE SPLIT FLOW REGIME BY NEXT WEEKEND. OPERATIONAL MDLS
AND ENSEMBLES SHOW SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT INVOF THE GULF STREAM...BUT
TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON ANY DETAILS ATTM. WILL CONT TO MENTION
REDUNDANT CHC OF SNOW IN THE LATER PDS OF THE FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF CENTRAL PA AIRFIELDS WITH IMPROVING CONDS
SPREADING WEST TO EAST. VFR HAS RETURNED EAST OF THE MTNS
MDT/IPT/UNV AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. WESTERN MTN/HIGHER ELEVATION SITES
BFD/JST/AOO WILL REMAIN MVFR WITH CIGS DEVELOPING AS FLOW TURNS
WESTERLY INTO THE MTNS. SCT -SHSN WILL DEVELOP AND LIKELY
PERSIST THRU TONIGHT AT KBFD AND KJST.

OUTLOOK...
TUE...SHSN NW MTNS.
WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
THUR...SHSN N AND W MTNS.
FRI-SAT...LGT SNOW POSS SOUTH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS OF 1.5"-2.5" ARE EXPECTED FOR STORM
TOTALS. COLD-SEASON HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS COMBINED WITH THE FCSTD
RNFL WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT RISES OF AROUND 3/4 BANKFULL ALONG THE
LWR WEST BRANCH AND MAIN STEM SUSQ. RISES ALONG THE JUNIATA ARE
FCST TO BE AROUND 1/2 BANKFULL. AREAS MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO MINOR
FLOODING WILL BE THE SMALLER STREAMS/CREEKS/TRIBS FROM THE JUNIATA
TO THE LWR MAIN STEM. CRESTS ARE GENERALLY MON-TUE WITH SEVERAL
POINTS GOING ABOVE CAUTION AND SOME NEAR FLOOD STAGE.
RESIDUAL/MELTING ICE MAY ALSO LEAD TO JAMMING AS THE ICE BECOMES
DISLODGED WITHIN SMALLER STREAM CHANNELS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ004>006-010>012-
017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...GARTNER
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE/GARTNER
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
HYDROLOGY...

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