Severe Thunderstorm Warning 67, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
435 PM EDT MON MAY 31 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH VERY MOIST AIR
ACROSS THE REGION TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY. AFTER THE COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST
OF THE COMMONWEALTH TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE STATE FOR A BRIEF TIME DURING MID-WEEK BEFORE PERIODS OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURN FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS/TSRA WILL INCREASE FROM SW
TO NE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE MAIN CONCENTRATION OF
CONVECTION NESTLED WITHIN THE REGION OF MUCH HIGHER SFC-925 MB
LIFTED INDICES...AS LOW AS -9C AND -6C RESPECTIVELY. MOST UNSTABLE
AIR WILL RESIDE ACROSS MAINLY THE SWRN HALF OF THE STATE THROUGH
THIS EVENING. MCV NEAR KERI WILL LIFT NE ALONG I-90 LATE
TODAY...SUPPORTING AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD/TRAINING TSRA. EXPANDED THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE THE WESTERN AND NW MTNS...IN ADDITION
TO THE EARLIER ISSUANCE FOR PORTIONS OF SCENT PENN.

FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE THRESHOLD OF 2.5 TO 3.5 INCHES IN ABOUT 3 HRS
SHOULD BE ACHIEVED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WATCH FROM THE TRAINING
TSRA LATE TDY AND THIS EVENING. THE WATCH /FOR NOW/ RUNS UNTIL
MIDNIGHT EDT.

A MUGGY NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER...SFC DEWPOINTS
HOLDING IN THE 60S...AND A MAINLY LIGHT SW WIND. MIN TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR...TO SVRL DEG F ABOVE THE DEWPOINT WITH AREAS OF 1-2SM FOG
POSSIBLE LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE NW HALF OF PENN WILL BE MOST AT RISK FOR SHRA/TSRA BEFORE
SUNRISE...AS THE SFC CFRONT CROSSES THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE FRONT
SHOULD PUSH THRU FROM NW TO SE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS TUES...WITH
THE MEAN LLVL/WESTERLY FLOW WEAKENING AND BECOMING PARALLEL TO THE
BOUNDARY AS IT SAGS TWD THE MASON DIXON LINE. DON'T EXPECT MUCH
RELIEF IN THE HUMIDITY DEPT IN THE WAKE OF THE CFROPA LATER
TUESDAY/TUESDAY EVENING...AS SFC DEWPOINTS STAY IN THE 60S /MID TO
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE/.

WIDESPREAD...LAYERED CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE CFRONT SHOULD HELP TO
TRIM THE MIXED LAYER CAPES BY SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG FROM MONDAY'S.
STILL LOCALLY STRONG...TO SVR TSRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE CFRONT ACROSS THE SE HALF OF PENN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH TUE/TUE EVE PUSHING DRIER AIR INTO
NORTHERN HALF OF PA. QUIETEST WEATHER OF THE WEEK WILL OCCUR
THROUGH THE DAY WED AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN DRIFTS
EAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH.

AFTER THAT...MORE ACTIVE WEATHER WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DEWPOINTS WILL CREEP BACK UP
INTO THE 50S TO AROUND 60F LATE WEEK. UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL
AND MUCH STRONGER ACROSS THE NRN US THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
LATE THIS WEEK RIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

LOOKS LIKE DECENT CHANCE FOR A DYING MCS TO SLIDE IN FROM THE WEST
WED NIGHT AS WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THEN
SHRA/TSRA CHANCES REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THU NIGHT AS SW LLJET SLIDES
THROUGH AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT EARLY FRI.

FOR THE WEEKEND...TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SFC/UPPER VORTICITY
FEATURES AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL BE
DIFFICULT...SO MANY PERIODS CONTINUE TO CONTAIN THE CHANCE FOR A
FEW SHRA/TSRA...WITH HIGHEST CHANCES BEING SUN/SUN NIGHT.

TEMPS FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK WILL BE SEVERAL OR MORE DEG F ABOVE
NORMAL WITH MEAN...LAYER PWATS CLIMBING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL /NEAR
1.5 INCHES/ THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BEFORE A GRADUAL COOLDOWN OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDS WILL DOMINATE THE NE HALF OF PENN THROUGH 00Z...WHILE
AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/SCTD STRONG TSRA OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTH
AND WEST TAF SITES.

WIDESPREAD LOWERING CIGS /TO IFR AND MVFR/ WILL OCCUR TONIGHT
THROUGH THE MID MORNING TUESDAY...WITH MORE BRIEF AND LOCALIZED LIFR
CIGS/VSBYS BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z TUESDAY IN PLACES THAT RECEIVE
RAINFALL THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT.

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN HAZE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE
CFRONTAL PASSAGE. LOCAL IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL OCCUR ONCE AGAIN IN THE
STRONGER TSRA.

OUTLOOK...
WED...VFR...AFTER AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN FOG EARLY
THUR..VFR...THEN PM TSRA POSSIBLE.
FRI AND SAT...MAINLY MVFR WITH PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR PAZ004-005-
010-017-024>026-033>036.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...LAMBERT/GARTNER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
302 PM EDT MON MAY 31 2010

PAZ006-011-012-018-019-027-028-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066-011915-
POTTER-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-
MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-
SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-
DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
302 PM EDT MON MAY 31 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PAZ004-005-010-017-024>026-033>036-011915-
WARREN-MCKEAN-ELK-CLEARFIELD-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-SOMERSET-
BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-
302 PM EDT MON MAY 31 2010

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF ONE INCH PER HOUR...AND RELAY ANY INFORMATION REGARDING
FLOODING AND ROAD CLOSURES DUE TO HIGH WATER...TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE.

LAMBERT

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
625 PM EDT MON MAY 31 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     FLASH FLOOD      MAYTOWN                 40.08N 76.58W
05/31/2010                   LANCASTER          PA   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            RHEEMS FIRE CO REPORTED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING

&&

STEINBUGL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
628 PM EDT MON MAY 31 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     FLASH FLOOD      WILLOW STREET           39.98N 76.27W
05/31/2010                   LANCASTER          PA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            911 CENTER REPORTED A FEW ROADS CLOSED IN THE WILLOW
            STREET/PEQUEA TWP AREA

&&

STEINBUGL