Flash Flood Watch 2, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1152 AM EDT MON MAY 31 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL DIRECT WARMER AND MORE
HUMID AIR INTO THE STATE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
STATE FOR A BRIEF TIME DURING MID-WEEK BEFORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
RETURNS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
LLVL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND CONVECTIVE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
STEADILY THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SW HALF TO TWO
THIRDS OF THE CWA. A BLEND OF SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 65-70F RANGE
/WHICH FALLS ALMOST RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE HIGH-END GFS'S AND
MUCH LOWER NAM/ WILL BE USED TO FOCUS ON AREAS FOR MORE NUMEROUS
AND STRONGER PULSE TSRA BETWEEN 18Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY.

PREVIOUS MAX TEMPS AND POPS LOOK EXCELLENT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE FEW MODIFICATIONS THAT WERE MADE WERE
INCREASING HOURLY TEMPS THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND
TRIMMING CLOUD COVER IN THE GRIDS A BIT THROUGH 18-19Z.

AREAS OF SFC-925 LIFTED INDICES...AS LOW AS -9C AND -6C
RESPECTIVELY VIA THE 14Z 13KM RUC ARE SEEN ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA
/EXCEPT FOR OUR FAR NE MTN ZONES WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD HOVER
AROUND 60F WITH THE 09Z SREF'S PROB OF CAPE >1000 J/KG AOB 30
PERCENT.

A FAIRLY WEAK...MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NE
ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTERACT WITH MESO SCALE BOUNDARIES AND FEATURES LIKE THE RIDGES.

MEAN STORM MOTION WILL BE FROM 220-230 DEG AT NEARLY 20 KTS...WITH
NEW CELL DEVELOPMENT /MBE PROPAGATION/ MAINLY TO THE NORTH AT
SIMILAR SPEEDS.

TEMPS WILL GET SIZZLING HOT THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS BETWEEN 82F AND
91F AREA-WIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD WANE BY LATE EVENING. BUT...THE FALLING
5H HEIGHTS AND LINGERING BOUNDARIES FROM THE EARLIER POPCORN WILL
KEEP SOME CONVECTION GOING ALL NIGHT. THE NW HALF WILL BE MOST AT
RISK FOR SHRA/TSRA BEFORE SUNRISE. THE FRONT SHOULD BE TO THE SE
OF THE LOWER LAKES BY SUNRISE TUES...AND PUSH THRU FROM NW TO SE
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS TUES. SUFFICIENT HEATING SHOULD EXIST IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCD CLOUDINESS TO ADD FUEL TO THE FIRE
AND BRING CAPES BACK INTO THE 1000-1500 RANGE IN THE SE ON TUES.
MAXES WILL RUN BETWEEN 75F AND 85F. SOME CLEARING MAY OCCUR IN THE
FAR NW BEFORE SUNSET AND PUSH DOWN INTO THE LWR SUSQ AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL COOL DOWN CLOSE TO THE DEWPOINTS AND THE AIR
SHOULD GO CALM. A HEALTHY DASH OF LEFTOVER MOISTURE IS ALSO IN THE
MIXER. THIS IS USUALLY A RECIPE FOR FOG...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION FOR WED AM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRIEST...AND MOST COMFORTABLE PERIOD /HUMIDITY-WISE/ OF THE WEEK
WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH.

DEWPOINTS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE 50S TO AROUND 60F. UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND MUCH STRONGER ACROSS THE NRN US THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS WEEK RIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SFC/UPPER VORTICITY FEATURES AND ASSOCIATED LOW
LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL BE DIFFICULT...SO MANY PERIODS CONTAIN
THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHRA/TSRA.

BEST CHC FOR CONVECTION WILL BE LATE THUR THROUGH FRIDAY...AND AGAIN
LATE SAT/SUNDAY.

TEMPS FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK WILL BE SEVERAL OR MORE DEG F ABOVE
NORMAL WITH MEAN...LAYER PWATS CLIMBING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL /NEAR
1.5 INCHES/ THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH 17-18Z TODAY BEFORE INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A DISTURBANCE ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY LEAD TO SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA OVER THE AREA AFTER
18Z THIS AFTN...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AIRFIELDS.
AREAS OF VSBY NR 5-6 SM IN HAZE ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
DAY...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PA BASED ON ADVECTION OF LOW LVL
MOISTURE/HZ FROM OHIO VALLEY.

AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS EXPECTED TONIGHT IN FOG.

OUTLOOK...
TUE...TSRA LIKELY WITH COLD FROPA.
WED...VFR.
THUR..VFR...THEN PM TSRA POSSIBLE.
FRI...TSRA POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...LAMBERT/GARTNER

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