Flash Flood Warning 9, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1110 PM CDT THU APR 15 2010

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS HAVE CONTINUED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN
GULF THIS EVENING AND LIGHT SHOWERS MAY BE NEAR KCRP ALL NIGHT.
THE SHOWERS SHOULD STREAM ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS FRIDAY
MORNING LIKE THEY HAVE THE PAST FEW DAYS AND POSSIBLY INTO KCRP
AND KALI. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS WEST TEXAS WILL
SLOWLY SLIDE TO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN TAF SITES BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
EASTERN TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED MAINLY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. KLRD SHOULD REMAIN
MAINLY MVFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1001 PM CDT THU APR 15 2010/

DISCUSSION...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED OVER WESTERN DUVAL
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS STRONG STORMS TRAINED OVER
THE SAME AREAS. RADAR ESTIMATES WERE AS HIGH AS 10 INCHES SOUTH OF
FREER AND 3 FEET OF WATER WAS REPORTED OVER HIGHWAY 16. HIGHWAY
16 FROM FREER SOUTH TO HEBRONVILLE HAS BEEN CLOSED UNTIL FRIDAY
MORNING. A LITTLE VORT SPUN OFF THE CONVECTION FROM FREER AND IS
SPINNING ITS WAY ACROSS MCMULLEN COUNTY NEAR TILDEN. THIS AREA
HAS RECEIVED 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN AS WELL.

THERE WAS NVA ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THAT SPREAD INTO THE SE
COASTAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON KEEP THE AREA DRY ALTHOUGH THERE WAS
2500 J/KG OF CAPE. THIS IS SLOWLY ERODING AWAY AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF AND
SPREADING THE COASTAL BEND. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THE MORNING.

GFS AND NAM WANT TO CONTINUE TO BRING DRIER AIR IN TO THE AREA
EACH DAY AND IT HAS THUS FAR NOT MATERIALIZED. THEY ARE STRUGGLING
WITH THE CONVECTION OVER THE GULF AND WANT TO DEVELOP A TROUGH
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF...AND THEREFORE TURN THE WINDS MORE TO THE
NORTHEAST AND DRAG DRIER AIR FROM LOUISIANA INTO THE CWFA. BELIEVE
THIS IS OVERDONE AND FOLLOWED CLOSER TO THE ECMWF AS IT IS NOT
DOING THIS.

AS THE SHORTWAVE OVER WEST TEXAS SLOWLY MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
ON FRIDAY...THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWFA SHOULD BE UNDER THE GUN
WITH 2000-2500 J/KG OF CAPE...EXCELLENT DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. COULD
SEE MORE HEAVY RAINFALL FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
GULF DUE TO SEAS OF 6 TO 10 FEET. WINDS WILL BE NEAR SCA CRITERION
AS WELL...BUT SHOULD PERSIST CLOSER TO 18-19 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NORTHERN
BAYS THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AS WINDS STAY AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    70  74  70  76  63  /  50  80  60  50  30
VICTORIA          67  74  66  77  58  /  40  80  60  40  20
LAREDO            70  81  70  79  63  /  60  50  50  50  40
ALICE             69  74  68  78  63  /  70  80  60  50  30
ROCKPORT          69  71  71  76  64  /  50  70  60  40  20
COTULLA           68  74  67  77  58  /  60  60  50  50  30
KINGSVILLE        71  79  70  77  63  /  70  80  60  50  30
NAVY CORPUS       70  74  70  76  65  /  50  70  50  50  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
     20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
     O'CONNOR.

&&

AK/84...SHORT TERM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
350 AM CDT THU APR 15 2010

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-160900-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O'CONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM-WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
350 AM CDT THU APR 15 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST. HEAVY RAIN IS THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS
SYSTEM. LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN COASTAL BEND TOWARDS THE RIO GRANDE...WHERE ISOLATED 2 TO
4 INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH WIND GUSTS
TO AROUND 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL
WATERS DUE TO A MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AND SEAS 5 TO 8 FEET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WHILE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...THERE WILL BE THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG STORMS EACH DAY MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 77. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40
MPH AND SMALL HAIL. HOWEVER THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE CONTINUED RAIN
OVER PROGRESSIVELY WETTER GROUND...WHICH COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED
FLOODING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OVER 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEARSHORE AND
OFFSHORE WATERS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DUE TO A MODERATE TO STRONG
EASTERLY FLOW AND HIGH SWELLS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

TE/GW

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