Flash Flood Warning 22, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
401 PM CDT FRI APR 16 2010

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW)...SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...MAINLY EAST OF
HIGHWAY 16. RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT UP TO 2 INCHES
PER HOUR BY A COCORAHS OBSERVER IN NORTHERN JIM WELLS COUNTY. MANY
LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL SINCE
YESTERDAY...CLOSING MANY ROADWAYS. DUE TO THIS EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL...HAVE EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING.

FORECAST REMAINS CHALLENGING AS MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A HARD TIME
WITH THIS SLOW MOVING ACTIVITY AS MID/UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES REMAIN
LIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COASTAL
AREAS WITH A FEW LOWER 80S BEING REPORTED ALONG WITH MODERATE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH RAINFALL DIMINISHING AFTER THAT
TIME. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AGAIN TOMORROW
AS ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON THE WARM AND MUGGY SIDE AS ONSHORE FLOW
CONTINUES WITH LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S OUT WEST TO MID/UPPER 70S EASTWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...WILL CONTINUE TO
DISMISS THE IDEA THE NAM HAS BEEN SHOWING OF BRINGING IN DRIER AIR
FROM THE NORTHERN GULF INTO THE AREA. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE HIGHER
GFS POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. GFS/UKMET/ECMWF/CAN ALL
INDICATE A LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS FROM THE CONCHO VALLEY SOUTH TO
THE BRUSH COUNTRY WILL BE IN PLACE SATURDAY NIGHT AND BE A FOCUS
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES
THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS. THE BOUNDARY WILL BE ALONG THE COAST BY
SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW CHANCE POPS OVER THE
COASTAL PLAINS BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE IN THE MORNING.

A SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR. WILL SEE THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO MONDAY WITH MOISTURE GRADUALLY RETURN UP
THE RIO GRANDE. WILL SHOW CHANCE POPS OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY FOR
MONDAY NIGHT FOR POSSIBLE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM TO EMANATE
FROM NORTHEAST MEXICO INTO THE AREA. MODELS SHOW THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS ON TUESDAY AND WENT WITH CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE AREA.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO MOVE INTO CALIFORNIA TUESDAY WILL
DEVELOP INTO A DEEP LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN FOR WEDNESDAY. LEE
SIDE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY
INCREASING OVER SOUTH TEXAS IN RESPONSE. COULD SEE STREAMER
CONVECTION DEVELOP BY THURSDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING. MODELS
ARE IN DISAGREEMENT WHEN THIS SYSTEM WILL KICK OUT INTO THE PLAINS
WITH THE ECMWF A BIT FASTER THAN THE GFS. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL PROVIDE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION FOR
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY WARM INTO THE 80S BY THU/FRI.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE
THIS EVENING AND RELAX LATE TONIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR SEAS BETWEEN 6 TO
8 FEET. ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS...HAVE EXTENDED THE ADVISORY
UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY MORNING FOR SEAS BETWEEN 7 TO 9 FEET. THE HIGH
SEAS ARE DUE TO A SUSTAINED LONG EASTERLY FETCH ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    70  77  65  77  62  /  60  60  60  40  20
VICTORIA          67  77  61  74  57  /  60  60  50  40  20
LAREDO            69  81  66  81  64  /  30  50  40  30  10
ALICE             68  76  64  79  60  /  70  60  60  30  10
ROCKPORT          70  77  64  75  64  /  50  60  40  40  20
COTULLA           65  77  61  77  59  /  50  50  40  20  10
KINGSVILLE        70  79  65  78  61  /  60  60  60  30  20
NAVY CORPUS       70  76  67  76  65  /  50  60  50  40  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEE...DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...LIVE
     OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

&&

RG/82...SHORT TERM
TMT/89...LONG TERM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1053 AM CDT FRI APR 16 2010

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-171600-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O'CONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM-WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
1053 AM CDT FRI APR 16 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 16 TO ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 77.

NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TODAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 16. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE.
SOME STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL. A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS
MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF
WATERS DUE TO SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FEET WITH A LONG FETCH OF EASTERLY
FLOW. THERE IS ALSO A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY FOR THE
BEACH FROM MALAQUITE BEACH TO PORT ARANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH NEARLY ALL OF THE
PERIOD...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ON SATURDAY...TUESDAY AND THURSDAY.
WHILE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...THERE WILL BE THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG STORMS EACH DAY MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 77. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40
MPH AND SMALL HAIL. HOWEVER THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE CONTINUED RAIN
OVER PROGRESSIVELY WETTER GROUND...WHICH COULD PRODUCE FLOODING
WHICH COULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WITH TIME. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OVER 8 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

RG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
446 PM CDT FRI APR 16 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0429 PM     FLASH FLOOD      ORANGE GROVE            27.96N 97.94W
04/16/2010                   JIM WELLS          TX   NWS EMPLOYEE

            FM 624 NEAR ORANGE GROVE IS CLOSED DUE TO AT LEAST 12
            INCHES OF MOVING WATER.

&&

GRANTHAM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
451 PM CDT FRI APR 16 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0429 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 NW TYNAN              28.18N 97.77W
04/16/2010                   BEE                TX   PUBLIC

            WATER FLOWING OVER FM 796 JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF TYNAN.

&&

GRANTHAM

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