Severe Thunderstorm Warning 170, NWS Cleveland, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
852 PM EDT WED AUG 4 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE AREA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING RAPIDLY OVER CENTRAL INDIANA WITH THE DAY
TDWR SHOWING 55KT WINDS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF STORMS APPROACHING
OHIO. CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ARE COOLING RAPIDLY WITH LIGHTNING
STRIKE COUNTS RAPIDLY RISING. THE CONVECTION IS MOVING ABOUT DUE
EAST AND WILL REACH THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
10 PM. THE AREA FROM FDY TO MFD TO KNOX COUNTY IS MOST A RISK FOR
STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT. THIS
EXTRAPOLATION OF MOTION AGREES FAIRLY WELL THE 21Z RUN OF THE HRRR
MODEL WHICH SHOWS THE CONVECTION MOVING EAST AND SLOWLY WEAKENING
WITH REDEVELOPMENT OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH THIS MIND...WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO
LIKELY POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH
DEWPOINTS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES ELEVATED SO WE WILL RISE
TEMPERATURES A TAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY.  BOTH THE GFS
AND NAM MOVE THE FRONT SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION.  MODEL RH REMAIN
HIGH EARLY IN THE DAY AND BOTH MODELS PRINT OUT PCPN OVER THE
REGION.  IT IS REASONABLE TO KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EVERYWHERE
THURSDAY PARTICULARLY IN THE AM HOURS.  IN THE AFTERNOON HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD AND PCPN SHOULD BEGIN TO END FROM WEST
TO EAST.  A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN NE OHIO AND NW PA THU EVENING
BUT I WILL MOST LIKELY END THE PCPN ALL AREAS THU NIGHT.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD ON FRIDAY.  THE GFS SHOWS A FAST MOVING
BACKDOOR FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.  THIS FEATURE IS VERY SUBTLE.
THE GFS DOES PRINT SOME PCPN OUT ON FRIDAY BUT I DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
FROM THIS FEATURE.  WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE LAKE IT IS
POSSIBLE TO SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS BUT I WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.  SAT AND SUN LOOK PLEASANT AS DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION. GUIDANCE TEMPS ARE CLUSTERED SO I DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH DEVIATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST. RIDGING ALOFT WILL
ATTEMPT TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY. HOWEVER...THE GFS AND
ECMWF TRYING TO SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE
AREA TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. GOING INTO NEXT WEEK MENTIONED
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY AROUND
THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEBRIS CLOUDS IN THE WAKE OF AN EARLIER MCS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE EVENING. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION SO ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. OF MOST CONCERN IS THE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS TAKING
SHAPE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. OUTFLOW FROM THIS COMPLEX WILL
LIKELY CAUSE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO STARTING NEAR KFDY
AROUND 02Z THEN PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE
STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR AND SOUTH OF A KFDY TO
KYNG LINE. MENTIONED GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS IN THE TAFS NEAR AND SOUTH
OF THIS LINE. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THERE SHOULD BE A RETURN
OF FOG. SOME LOCATIONS COULD ONCE AGAIN DIP TO IFR LEVELS TOWARD
SUNRISE. CEILINGS WILL ALSO DIP BUT BELIEVE THEY WILL REMAIN 1500
FEET OR HIGHER.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT PASSES.

.OUTLOOK...MVFR FOG POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING FOR INLAND SITES. VFR
CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST OF THE LAKE WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODELS
SHOWING THE FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY WITH A
REINFORCING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE LAKE EARLY
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE LAKE DURING THE WEEKEND
ALLOWING FOR LIGHTER WINDS AND WAVES. WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW...BUT
WITH WESTERLY WINDS INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR BETWEEN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND LATE FRIDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...GARNET
NEAR TERM...REL
SHORT TERM...GARNET
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...ABE

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
510 PM EDT WED AUG 04 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 ESE NAVARRE           40.69N 81.43W
08/04/2010                   STARK              OH   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN IN A CAMPING AREA NEAR HAUT AND
            SHREMAN CHURCH ROADS. NO INJURIES.

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
935 PM EDT WED AUG 4 2010

OHZ017-027-050245-
HANCOCK-WYANDOT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FINDLAY...UPPER SANDUSKY...CAREY
935 PM EDT WED AUG 4 2010

...LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING HANCOCK AND WYANDOT COUNTIES...

AT 932 PM...THERE WAS A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED FROM
DEFIANCE TO LIMA. THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE
EAST AT AROUND 40 MPH. WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
AS IT TRACKS ACROSS BENTON RIDGE...RAWSON...ARLINGTON AND FINDLAY.
THESE STRONGER WINDS MAY MOVE INTO WYANDOT COUNTY NEAR OR SHORTLY
AFTER 10 PM.

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