Severe Thunderstorm Warning 119, NWS Cleveland, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
419 PM EDT SUN JUN 27 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WI WILL MOVE INTO ONTARIO CANADA TONIGHT AND
TAKE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TOWARD MORNING. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING THIS EVENING AND THEN ANOTHER
ROUND MAY AFFECT THE AREA OVERNIGHT. MUCH COOLER AND LESS HUMID
AIR WILL BE USHERED IN BY THIS FRONT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING THIS EVENING FROM
REMNANT MCV AND WARM SECTOR DESTABILIZATION. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
TO THE WEST WHERE ATMOSPHERE IS RECOVERING AHEAD OF PREFRONTAL
TROUGH. FURTHER WEST YET IS THE COLD FRONT ITSELF. SEVERE THREAT
CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH ENOUGH SHEAR/CAPE TO
SUPPORT SUBSTANTIAL UPDRAFTS. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT
WITH THE FRONT. BETTER DYNAMICS WITH THE SHORTWAVE. BROUGHT
CATEGORICAL POPS BACK INTO THE FORECAST. STILL MILD AND MUGGY.

POSSIBLE ONGOING SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO START OF THE
MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH SECONDARY TROUGH PASSAGE. TEMPS STILL TO REACH LOW
80S MOST PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COOLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND MONDAYS SECONDARY
TROUGH...SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER. HIGHS TUE AND WED ONLY UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S. SOME MODERATION BY THURSDAY AS AIRMASS MODIFIES AND
UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVERHEAD. THE ONLY NEGATIVE TO THIS
EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL RESIDE FOR SEVERAL DAYS IS THE
COLDER AIR ALOFT. SOME LAKE CLOUDS POSSIBLE. MODELS INDICATE THAT
BETTER MOISTURE BEGINS TO MOVE OUT TOWARDS THURSDAY. RELATIVELY
COOL NIGHTS...GENERALLY AROUND 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BUILD SOUTH
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...ANCHORED BETWEEN AN UNSEASONABLY LARGE
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST AND A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS
STATES. THIS WILL LEAD TO SEASONABLE DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS. BY THE
END OF THE WEEK...THE RIDGE WILL LIKELY BUILD AND SPREAD EASTWARD
AND TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK ABOVE NORMAL ALTHOUGH IT MAY TAKE A
COUPLE OF DAYS FOR THE DEWPOINTS TO RISE MUCH. IT IS TOO EARLY TO
TRY AND PIN DOWN ANY MOVEMENT OR STRENGTH ON THE GULF COAST SYSTEM
AND WILL NOT INCORPORATE IT INTO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. THESE
SYSTEMS OFTEN DRIFT FARTHER WEST AND ARE SLOWER THAN THE MODELS
THINK AND THE GFS IS ONE OF THE FEW LONG RANGE MODELS TRYING TO
BRING THE SYSTEM NORTH TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME SHOWERS/STORMS AT ANY PARTICULAR TAF
SITE BUT ALL SITES SHOULD SEE SHOWERS/STORMS AT OR IN THE VICINITY
BETWEEN 18Z AND 01Z EXCEPT PERHAPS KERI WHICH WILL BE PROTECTED BY
THE LAKE SHADOW FOR A WHILE. STRONGER STORMS MOVING ACROSS INDIANA
WILL REACH KTOL 19Z-20Z AND KFDY SOON AFTER AND THEN MOVE EAST.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH THE
STORMS AND BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP TONIGHT. IT WILL TAKE UNTIL MONDAY MORNING FOR
THE FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA AT WHICH TIME THE AIR WILL BEGIN TO
STABILIZE. SOME MVFR CEILINGS/VSBY LIKELY WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
MONDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...VFR DEVELOPING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND LIKELY CONTINUING THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD INCREASE DRAMATICALLY ON THE LAKE THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES AND THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES NORTH OF THE LAKE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
BE ISSUED FROM AVON POINT EASTWARD. SOME PROTECTED AREAS ALONG THE
SOUTH SHORE...ESPECIALLY WEST OF AVON POINT...MAY NOT HAVE WAVE
ISSUES. COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE LAKE ON MONDAY BUT IT WILL
LIKELY TAKE A WHILE FOR THE FLOW TO VEER TOWARD THE NORTHWEST... IN
FACT... IT WILL PROBABLY TAKE UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT WHEN A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE AND THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPS. IN ANY CASE...THE WIND WILL REMAIN RATHER BRISK AND
SUBJECT TO RATHER QUICK INCREASES DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING OF
THE PASSAGE OF THE SECONDARY FRONT AND ANY ASSOCIATED TROUGHS OF LOW
PRESSURE. MARINERS SHOULD BE A BIT CAUTIOUS THE ENTIRE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...MORE LIKE A
COOL SEASON PATTERN. BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...THINGS SHOULD
CALM DOWN AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR LEZ146>149.

&&

SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK/OUDEMAN
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
425 PM EDT SUN JUN 27 2010

LEZ142>144-162>164-OHZ003-006>009-017>019-027-028-036-281100-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH-RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION-LUCAS-WOOD-
OTTAWA-SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-WYANDOT-CRAWFORD-MARION-
425 PM EDT SUN JUN 27 2010

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 423 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE...NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO AND NORTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

LEZ061-145>149-165>169-OHZ010>014-020>023-029>033-037-038-047-089-
PAZ001>003-281100-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO BUFFALO NY-
VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH-AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH-
WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OH-GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH-
CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM VERMILION TO AVON POINT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-
LAKE-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-RICHLAND-
ASHLAND-WAYNE-STARK-MAHONING-MORROW-HOLMES-KNOX-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-
NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-CRAWFORD PA-
425 PM EDT SUN JUN 27 2010

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 424 IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE...NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
536 PM EDT SUN JUN 27 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0423 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 S SANDUSKY            41.40N 82.72W
06/27/2010                   ERIE               OH   PUBLIC

            TREES DOWN. PENNY HAIL.

0445 PM     TSTM WND DMG     NEW LONDON              41.08N 82.41W
06/27/2010                   HURON              OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES DOWN. PEA HAIL.

0500 PM     TSTM WND GST     LAGRANGE                41.24N 82.12W
06/27/2010  E60.00 MPH       LORAIN             OH   NWS EMPLOYEE

0500 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CAMBRIDGE SPRINGS       41.80N 80.06W
06/27/2010                   CRAWFORD           PA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN.

&&

OUDEMAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
603 PM EDT SUN JUN 27 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 PM     TSTM WND DMG     NORTH RIDGEVILLE        41.39N 82.02W
06/27/2010                   LORAIN             OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES DOWN ACROSS THE ROAD.

&&

OUDEMAN