Severe Thunderstorm Warning 109, NWS Cleveland, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
136 PM EDT SUN JUN 27 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN LAKES THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO THIS EVENING. AS THIS AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE PROGRESSES FURTHER TO THE EAST IT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A SECONDARY SURGE OF COOLER AIR WILL
ARRIVE BY MONDAY EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES INTO THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA BY THURSDAY AND PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ABLE TO PUT A FEW MORE DETAILS INTO THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.
OVER THE SHORT TERM FOCUS WILL BE ON SOUTHERN MI/NORTHERN IN.
OUTFLOW FROM MI STORMS TO INTERACT WITH CONVECTION MOVING OUT OF
IL ALONG E/W WARM FRONT. WILL STEADILY INCREASE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FOR TOL VICINITY THROUGH REST OF THE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS PRESENT FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

WARM AND HUMID...MORE SO THAN YESTERDAY. SEVERAL LOCATIONS WILL
TOUCH 90 FOR HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BY THIS EVENING ANY ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS COULD BEGIN TO DECREASE
IN COVERAGE. HOWEVER ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST.
THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AN MCS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE TOWARD THE
AREA FROM THE WEST...SWEEPING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR
THE OVERNIGHT BUT INFLUENCE OF THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION COULD
BECOME A FACTOR.

NOT A HUGE CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT THAT WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGHS
ON MONDAY TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 80S. STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN AHEAD OF A SECONDARY SURGE OF COOLER AIR THAT WILL ARRIVE
MONDAY EVENING TO KEEP AT LEAST A MENTION OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S. COOLEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA WHERE SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WARM BACK INTO THE 80S BY THE WEEKEND...BUT DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME SHOWERS/STORMS AT ANY PARTICULAR TAF
SITE BUT ALL SITES SHOULD SEE SHOWERS/STORMS AT OR IN THE VICINITY
BETWEEN 18Z AND 01Z EXCEPT PERHAPS KERI WHICH WILL BE PROTECTED BY
THE LAKE SHADOW FOR A WHILE. STRONGER STORMS MOVING ACROSS INDIANA
WILL REACH KTOL 19Z-20Z AND KFDY SOON AFTER AND THEN MOVE EAST.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH THE
STORMS AND BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP TONIGHT. IT WILL TAKE UNTIL MONDAY MORNING FOR
THE FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA AT WHICH TIME THE AIR WILL BEGIN TO
STABILIZE. SOME MVFR CEILINGS/VSBY LIKELY WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
MONDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...VFR DEVELOPING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND LIKELY CONTINUING THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SW FLOW
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  CONDITIONS WILL APPROACH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA EAST OF CLEVELAND AS WINDS APPROACH 10
TO 20 KNOTS.  CHOPPY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS FRONT
FINALLY PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE.  WINDS DIMINISH WEDNESDAY AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE LAKES...BUT A NW-NE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...DJB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1155 AM EDT SUN JUN 27 2010

LEZ142>144-162>164-OHZ003-006>009-017>019-027-028-036-281100-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH-RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION-LUCAS-WOOD-
OTTAWA-SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-WYANDOT-CRAWFORD-MARION-
1155 AM EDT SUN JUN 27 2010

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 423 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE...NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO AND NORTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

LEZ061-145>149-165>169-OHZ010>014-020>023-029>033-037-038-047-089-
PAZ001>003-281100-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO BUFFALO NY-
VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH-AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH-
WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OH-GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH-
CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM VERMILION TO AVON POINT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-
LAKE-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-RICHLAND-
ASHLAND-WAYNE-STARK-MAHONING-MORROW-HOLMES-KNOX-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-
NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-CRAWFORD PA-
1155 AM EDT SUN JUN 27 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE...NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER HAIL
APPROACHING THE SIZE OF QUARTERS COULD OCCUR.

A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST WILL ALSO ASSIST IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT.
STRONG DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH THIS ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS
AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

OUDEMAN