Wind Advisory 4, NWS Buffalo, NY

326 
WWUS71 KBUF 161220
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
720 AM EST TUE NOV 16 2010

NYZ007-008-162030-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0004.101117T0300Z-101117T1100Z/
JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
720 AM EST TUE NOV 16 2010

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
6 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM
EST WEDNESDAY. 

* LOCATION: THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE BLACK RIVER
  VALLEY NORTH TO AREAS FROM FORT DRUM TO HARRISVILLE.

* TIMING: WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING WITH THE 
  STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. WINDS WILL 
  QUICKLY DIMINISH BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. 

* WINDS: EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE WITH
  GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. 

* IMPACTS: STRONG WINDS MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES AND A
  FEW DOWNED TREE LIMBS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
31 TO 39 MPH OR GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 46 AND 57 MPH. WINDS OF
THESE MAGNITUDES MAY CAUSE MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE WITHOUT EXTRA
PRECAUTIONS. MOTORISTS IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES SHOULD USE
CAUTION UNTIL THE WINDS SUBSIDE. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&

$$

HITCHCOCK

331 
WWUS71 KBUF 162018
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
318 PM EST TUE NOV 16 2010

NYZ001-002-010>012-019-020-085-170430-
/O.NEW.KBUF.WI.Y.0005.101117T1800Z-101118T0000Z/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...BUFFALO...
BATAVIA...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
318 PM EST TUE NOV 16 2010

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY. 

* LOCATION: ALL OF WESTERN NEW YORK ESPECIALLY AREAS DOWNWIND OF
  LAKE ERIE.  

* TIMING: THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED FROM MID AFTERNOON
  INTO THE EVENING.

* WINDS: WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 MPH AND
  OCCASIONALLY GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. 

* IMPACTS: STRONG WINDS MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES AND A
  FEW DOWNED TREE LIMBS.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
31 TO 39 MPH OR GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 46 AND 57 MPH. WINDS OF
THESE MAGNITUDES MAY CAUSE MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE WITHOUT EXTRA
PRECAUTIONS. MOTORISTS IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES SHOULD USE
CAUTION UNTIL THE WINDS SUBSIDE. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&

$$

NYZ003>006-013-014-021-170430-
/O.NEW.KBUF.WI.Y.0005.101117T2100Z-101118T0300Z/
MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-ALLEGANY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCHESTER...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...
OSWEGO...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA...WELLSVILLE
318 PM EST TUE NOV 16 2010

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY. 

* LOCATION: THE HIGHEST WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG
  THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORE. 

* TIMING: THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED FROM LATE
  AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. 

* WINDS:WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE 25 TO 40 MPH AND OCCASIONALLY
  GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. 

* IMPACTS: STRONG WINDS MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES AND A
  FEW DOWNED TREE LIMBS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
31 TO 39 MPH OR GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 46 AND 57 MPH. WINDS OF
THESE MAGNITUDES MAY CAUSE MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE WITHOUT EXTRA
PRECAUTIONS. MOTORISTS IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES SHOULD USE
CAUTION UNTIL THE WINDS SUBSIDE. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&

$$

NYZ007-008-170430-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0004.101117T0300Z-101117T1100Z/
JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
318 PM EST TUE NOV 16 2010

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
6 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM
EST WEDNESDAY. 

* LOCATION: THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE BLACK RIVER 
  VALLEY NORTH TO AREAS FROM FORT DRUM TO HARRISVILLE. 

* TIMING: WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING WITH THE 
  STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. WINDS WILL 
  QUICKLY DIMINISH BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. 

* WINDS: EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE WITH 
  GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. 

* IMPACTS: STRONG WINDS MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES AND 
  A FEW DOWNED TREE LIMBS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
31 TO 39 MPH OR GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 46 AND 57 MPH. WINDS OF
THESE MAGNITUDES MAY CAUSE MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE WITHOUT EXTRA
PRECAUTIONS. MOTORISTS IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES SHOULD USE
CAUTION UNTIL THE WINDS SUBSIDE. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&

$$

TJP

619 
WWUS71 KBUF 170243
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
943 PM EST TUE NOV 16 2010

NYZ007-008-171045-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0004.101117T0300Z-101117T1100Z/
JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
943 PM EST TUE NOV 16 2010

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY. 

* LOCATION: THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE BLACK RIVER 
  VALLEY NORTH TO AREAS FROM FORT DRUM TO HARRISVILLE. 

* TIMING: WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING WITH THE 
  STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. WINDS WILL 
  QUICKLY DIMINISH BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. 

* WINDS: EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE WITH 
  GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. 

* IMPACTS: STRONG WINDS MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES AND 
  A FEW DOWNED TREE LIMBS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
31 TO 39 MPH OR GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 46 AND 57 MPH. WINDS OF
THESE MAGNITUDES MAY CAUSE MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE WITHOUT EXTRA
PRECAUTIONS. MOTORISTS IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES SHOULD USE
CAUTION UNTIL THE WINDS SUBSIDE. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&

$$

NYZ001-002-010>012-019-020-085-171045-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0005.101117T1800Z-101118T0000Z/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...BUFFALO...
BATAVIA...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
943 PM EST TUE NOV 16 2010

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM EST
WEDNESDAY. 

* LOCATION: ALL OF WESTERN NEW YORK ESPECIALLY AREAS DOWNWIND OF 
  LAKE ERIE. 

* TIMING: THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED FROM MID 
  AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. 

* WINDS: WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 MPH AND 
  OCCASIONALLY GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. 

* IMPACTS: STRONG WINDS MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES AND 
  A FEW DOWNED TREE LIMBS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
31 TO 39 MPH OR GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 46 AND 57 MPH. WINDS OF
THESE MAGNITUDES MAY CAUSE MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE WITHOUT EXTRA
PRECAUTIONS. MOTORISTS IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES SHOULD USE
CAUTION UNTIL THE WINDS SUBSIDE. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&

$$

NYZ003>006-013-014-021-171045-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0005.101117T2100Z-101118T0300Z/
MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-ALLEGANY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCHESTER...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...
OSWEGO...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA...WELLSVILLE
943 PM EST TUE NOV 16 2010

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM TO 10 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM TO 10 PM EST
WEDNESDAY. 

* LOCATION: THE HIGHEST WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG 
  THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORE. 

* TIMING: THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED FROM LATE 
  AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. 

* WINDS:WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE 25 TO 40 MPH AND 
  OCCASIONALLY GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. 

* IMPACTS: STRONG WINDS MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES AND 
  A FEW DOWNED TREE LIMBS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
31 TO 39 MPH OR GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 46 AND 57 MPH. WINDS OF
THESE MAGNITUDES MAY CAUSE MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE WITHOUT EXTRA
PRECAUTIONS. MOTORISTS IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES SHOULD USE
CAUTION UNTIL THE WINDS SUBSIDE. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&

$$

585 
WWUS71 KBUF 170931
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
431 AM EST WED NOV 17 2010

NYZ007-008-171745-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WI.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-101117T1100Z/
/O.EXB.KBUF.WI.Y.0005.101117T2100Z-101118T0500Z/
JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
431 AM EST WED NOV 17 2010

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT
EST TONIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT. 

* LOCATION: THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE LAKE ONTARIO
  SHORE AND OVER THE TUG HILL PLATEAU.

* TIMING: WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONGEST
  BETWEEN 4 PM AND 10 PM.

* WINDS: THE DIRECTION WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH SUSTAINED
  SPEEDS IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE. GUSTS OVER 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
  ESPECIALLY EARLY TONIGHT.

* IMPACTS: THE STRONG WINDS MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES
  AND A FEW DOWNED TREE LIMBS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
31 TO 39 MPH OR GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 46 AND 57 MPH. WINDS OF
THESE MAGNITUDES MAY CAUSE MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE WITHOUT EXTRA
PRECAUTIONS. MOTORISTS IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES SHOULD USE
CAUTION UNTIL THE WINDS SUBSIDE. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&

$$

NYZ001-002-010>012-019-020-085-171745-
/O.EXT.KBUF.WI.Y.0005.101117T1400Z-101118T0200Z/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...BUFFALO...
BATAVIA...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
431 AM EST WED NOV 17 2010

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM EST
THIS EVENING...

THE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM
EST THIS EVENING. 

* LOCATION: ALL OF WESTERN NEW YORK ESPECIALLY AREAS DOWNWIND OF 
  LAKE ERIE. 

* TIMING: THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED FROM MIDDAY INTO
  THE EVENING.

* WINDS: WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 MPH WITH
  OCCASIONAL GUSTS FROM 45 TO 50 MPH.

* IMPACTS: THE STRONG WINDS MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES
  AND A FEW DOWNED TREE LIMBS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
31 TO 39 MPH OR GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 46 AND 57 MPH. WINDS OF
THESE MAGNITUDES MAY CAUSE MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE WITHOUT EXTRA
PRECAUTIONS. MOTORISTS IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES SHOULD USE
CAUTION UNTIL THE WINDS SUBSIDE. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&

$$

NYZ003>005-013-014-021-171745-
/O.EXT.KBUF.WI.Y.0005.101117T1800Z-101118T0300Z/
MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-ALLEGANY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCHESTER...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...
GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA...WELLSVILLE
431 AM EST WED NOV 17 2010

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM
EST THIS EVENING...

THE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
10 PM EST THIS EVENING. 

* LOCATION: THE HIGHEST WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG THE
  LAKE ONTARIO SHORE AND OVER HIGHER INLAND ELEVATIONS SOUTH OF
  THE THRUWAY.

* TIMING: THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED THIS 
  AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. 

* WINDS:WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE 25 TO 35 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
  GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 MPH.

* IMPACTS: THE STRONG WINDS MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES
  AND A FEW DOWNED TREE LIMBS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
31 TO 39 MPH OR GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 46 AND 57 MPH. WINDS OF
THESE MAGNITUDES MAY CAUSE MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE WITHOUT EXTRA
PRECAUTIONS. MOTORISTS IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES SHOULD USE
CAUTION UNTIL THE WINDS SUBSIDE. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&

$$

NYZ006-171745-
/O.EXT.KBUF.WI.Y.0005.101117T2100Z-101118T0500Z/
OSWEGO-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...OSWEGO
431 AM EST WED NOV 17 2010

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...

THE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT. 

* LOCATION: THE HIGHEST WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG 
  THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORE. 

* TIMING: THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED FROM MID AFTERNOON
  INTO THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT.

* WINDS:WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE 25 TO 40 MPH AND 
  OCCASIONALLY GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. 

* IMPACTS: THE STRONG WINDS MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES
  AND A FEW DOWNED TREE LIMBS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
31 TO 39 MPH OR GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 46 AND 57 MPH. WINDS OF
THESE MAGNITUDES MAY CAUSE MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE WITHOUT EXTRA
PRECAUTIONS. MOTORISTS IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES SHOULD USE
CAUTION UNTIL THE WINDS SUBSIDE. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&

$$

SAGE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
401 AM EST TUE NOV 16 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL
MOVE NORTH INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
TO THE REGION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY AND IT WILL TURN QUITE WINDY AS WELL AS THE LOW PASSES BY
JUST TO OUR NORTH. COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL THEN RULE
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN ACTIVE PERIOD IN STORE AS A SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
COAST. MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN
INTENSE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE CENTRAL CONUS
LONGWAVE TROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING NEAR THE ARKLATEX. AS THIS
FEATURE APPROACHES AND CAPTURES THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW...RAPID
INTENSIFICATION WILL ENSUE.

MODEL GUIDANCE NOW IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC
EVOLUTION WITH THE NAM FINALLY COMING AROUND TOWARD THE GFS/GEM
SOLUTIONS. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE NOW TRACKS THE SURFACE LOW TO CENTRAL
KENTUCKY BY THIS AFTERNOON THEN ACROSS LAKE ERIE TO A POSITION JUST
WEST OF KBUF AT 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE ORIGIN OF THIS SYSTEM IN THE DEEP
SOUTH WILL ALLOW A DEEP PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE TO BE CAPTURED AND
ADVECTED NORTHWARD WITH PWAT EXCEEDING 1 INCH TONIGHT...SOME 2-3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MID NOVEMBER. AS THE SURFACE
LOW INTENSIFIES LATER TODAY...A WING OF STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF IT AND SPREAD QUICKLY NORTH TOWARDS THE LOWER LAKES
REGION. IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS WILL COME TOGETHER WITH A WELL DEFINED
JET COUPLET DEVELOPING ALOFT SUPPORTED BY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF AN EAST/WEST ORIENTED JET OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA...AND THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF A SSW/NNE ORIENTED JET MOVING UP ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. THE JET COUPLET WILL COMBINE WITH STRONGLY DIFFLUENT MID
AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO PRODUCE STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT. AT THE SAME
TIME...A VERY STRONG 60-70 KNOT SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL
DEVELOP ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE DEEPENING CYCLONE PRODUCING STRONG
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND ENHANCED ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ACROSS THE
DEVELOPING WARM FRONTAL ZONE. ALL OF THIS FORCING APPEARS TO LINE UP
IN TIME AND SPACE TO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF STRONG DEEP LAYER ASCENT
ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION TONIGHT.

GIVEN THE QUALITY OF THE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS COMING TOGETHER...
EXPECT A WIDESPREAD MODERATE QPF EVENT WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A
HALF INCH TO AN INCH ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH SOME LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN SOME UPSLOPE AREAS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
NEAR THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. THE SHORT DURATION WILL LIMIT
EXCESSIVE QPF POTENTIAL...WITH MOST OF THE RAIN FALLING IN A 6-8
HOUR PERIOD. THE AREA HAS BEEN VERY DRY FOR THE PAST FEW WEEKS... SO
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE FORESEEN OTHER THAN SOME PONDING IN POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. AS FAR AS TIMING GOES...EXPECT RAIN TO OVERSPREAD
THE SOUTHERN TIER DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON THEN REACH THE
SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO BY LATE AFTERNOON...FINALLY REACHING THE
NORTH COUNTRY EARLY THIS EVENING. SHOWALTER INDEX APPROACHES ZERO OR
EVEN GOES SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TONIGHT...SO MAY SEE A FEW ISOLATED
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL TONIGHT.

OVERNIGHT THE PRIMARY AREA OF WARM ADVECTION AND FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET AND UPPER LEVEL JET COUPLET WILL SHIFT NORTH
AND EAST INTO CANADA AND NORTHERN NY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE STEADY
RAIN TO TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TEMPORARILY ACROSS WESTERN NY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH SOME SUGGESTION OF A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT NOTED
IN BOTH THE NAM/GFS GUIDANCE. BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE WILL ALREADY BE MOVING BACK INTO WESTERN NY...WITH STRONG
MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND FORCING ALONG A SURGING COLD FRONTAL ZONE
SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN.

OTHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS WIND POTENTIAL EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
THE STRONG 60-70 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE ORIENTED FROM SOUTHEAST
TO NORTHWEST...WHICH IS A FAVORABLE ORIENTATION FOR DOWNSLOPE WINDS
AND CHANNELING IN THE BLACK RIVER VALLEY AND FORT DRUM AREA. NAM
POINT SOUNDINGS IN LEWIS COUNTY SHOW AN INVERSION NEAR THE
ADIRONDACK RIDGE TOPS AT 2-3 THOUSAND FEET...AND 60+ KNOT WINDS
EXTENDING DOWN TO JUST ABOVE THE RIDGES. THE STABLE LOW LEVELS
SHOULD PROVIDE A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR A DOWNSLOPE
WIND EVENT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ON THE LEE SLOPES OF THE
ADIRONDACKS. WITH THIS IN MIND AND GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET...WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT FOR JEFFERSON AND
LEWIS COUNTIES. THIS IS MAINLY FOR THE BLACK RIVER VALLEY AND FORT
DRUM/HARRISVILLE AREAS. FARTHER WEST THE LAKE ERIE SHORE IS ALSO
SUSCEPTIBLE TO DOWNSLOPE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS...HOWEVER THE CORE OF
THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL PASS TO THE EAST OF THIS REGION SO THIS
SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THIS CYCLE FOR THE
WEDNESDAY'S DEEPENING LOW TRACK. EVEN THE RECENT OUTLIER NAM IS ON
BOARD TO TRACK THE DEEPENING LOW JUST WEST OF BUFFALO AROUND 12Z
WEDNESDAY. THIS TRACK COUPLED WITH A STRONG ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT
WILL LEAD TO FAIR STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE WINDS WILL
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY OR WARNING CRITERIA BUT IT BEARS KEEPING AN
EYE ON IF THE STORM DEEPENS EVEN MORE THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE NON DIURNAL. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE MORNING BEFORE COLDER AIR WRAPS AROUND THE LOW AS IT TRACKS
TOWARD THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONLY LIKELY
PROBABILITIES LEFT FOR THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION BY THE END OF
THE DAY.

THERE WILL BE A FURTHER DECREASE IN ACTIVITY FOR AWHILE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BUT AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD AROUND THE
DEPARTING LOW LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 30S. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
MARGINAL BUT SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN
SHOWERS. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THURSDAY WILL BE A CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S BUT THAT'S NEAR
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR ANYWAY. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. SCATTERED MIXED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT IN UPSLOPE AREAS
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOW 30S
TO UPPER 20S THERE MAY BE SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATION. WE WILL KEEP
AN EYE ON THAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS OUT OF THE AREA ALLOWING FOR
SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT RISES. SURFACE RIDGE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED
QUICKLY ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL END ANY LINGERING LAKE INDUCED
PRECIPITATION. SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTING QUICKLY THROUGH THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AS WEAK CLIPPER TYPE LOW
MOVES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR INTO QUEBEC FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. LIMITED ASSOCIATED MOISTURE GIVEN THE SOURCE REGION AND
RAPID MOVEMENT...AND WITH THE PRIMARY WARM FRONTAL ZONE LINING UP
NORTH OF THE AREA...WOULD EXPECT THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH CAN SEE SOME
PRECIPITATION SNEAKING INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY AND SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY. TEMPERATURES MARGINAL FRIDAY NIGHT SO COULD SEE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX...BUT CERTAINLY NOT A SIGNIFICANT EVENT EXPECTED.

FOR THE MOST PART...THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. SOME
LINGERING COLD AIR IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW COULD BRING SOME LAKE
RESPONSE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO SATURDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE
RIDGING BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER
ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

WARM FRONTAL ZONE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY AND LIFTING SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TRANQUIL VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL SLOWLY LOSE ITS GRIP ON
OUR REGION.

CONDITIONS WILL THEN DETERIORATE AS A STORM SYSTEM WILL ORGANIZE
OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND LIFT NORTH. CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL LOWER AND THICKEN DURING THE COURSE OF TUESDAY...WITH
RAIN BECOMING WIDESPREAD BY MID AFTERNOON. WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE IN PLACE FOR THE BULK OF THE DAY...MVFR CIGS WILL PROGRESS FROM
THE WRN SOUTHERN TIER (KJHW, KELZ) AT MIDDAY TO MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL THEN FURTHER
LOWER TO IFR LEVELS TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AS STEADIER RAIN MOVES
THROUGH.

WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CIGS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS A
WELL ORGANIZED STORM SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...IFR IN WIDESPREAD RAIN AND FOG. GUSTY WINDS DURING THE
MIDDAY AND PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE DEEP SOUTH THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
NORTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TODAY THEN REACH A POINT JUST
WEST OF BUFFALO BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING DOWN THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. EASTERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY ON LAKE ONTARIO
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO THE WEST HALF OF THE LAKE.

AS THE SURFACE LOW PASSES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WINDS WILL SWING
AROUND TO THE WEST AND RAPIDLY INCREASE. MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL SUPPORT DOWNWARD MOMENTUM OF STRONGER WINDS FROM ALOFT...AND
STRONG PRESSURE RISES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL ALSO
SUPPORT SAME. WE WILL ISSUE GALE WATCHES FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR NYZ007-008.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
         FOR LEZ020-040-041.
         GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
         EVENING FOR LOZ042>045-062>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
         WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...JJP
SHORT TERM...SAGE
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...HITCHCOCK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
348 PM EST MON NOV 15 2010

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-162100-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
348 PM EST MON NOV 15 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER LAKES REGION
ON WEDNESDAY. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF THIS LOW. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH TO AN
INCH ARE LIKELY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ON THE TUG HILL. THE
AREA HAS BEEN DRY RECENTLY...SO STREAMS AND CREEKS WILL BE ABLE TO
HANDLE THE RAINFALL.

AS THE LOW MOVES BY WINDS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. WEST WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG
THE LAKE ERIE SHORE INLAND ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NEW YORK AND
ALSO NEAR LAKE ONTARIO.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-162100-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
348 PM EST MON NOV 15 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE
ONTARIO AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER LAKES REGION
ON WEDNESDAY. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW AND
MAY PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING ON
LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF