Alert archive / New York / Flood Watches in 2010
Flood Watch 5, NWS Buffalo, NY
NWS Buffalo, NY issued this flood watch at Nov 29, 2010, 2:56 PM EST for 10 counties in New York. It took effect at Dec 1, 2010, 1:00 AM EST. It was in force for 11 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Nov 29, 2010, 2:56 PM EST (19:56 UTC)
- In effect from
- Dec 1, 2010, 1:00 AM EST
- Expired
- Dec 1, 2010, 11:56 AM EST
- In force
- 11 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Buffalo, NY
- Flood severity
- None
Counties Allegany County, NY, Cattaraugus County, NY, Cayuga County, NY, Jefferson County, NY, Lewis County, NY, Livingston County, NY, Monroe County, NY, Ontario County, NY, Oswego County, NY, Wayne County, NY
The radar
The Binghamton radar (KBGM), 130 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:55 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 12:00Z, 7.9 hours before the alert went out and 133 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2343 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 34 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 17 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 41 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
359 WGUS61 KBUF 291956 FFABUF URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 256 PM EST MON NOV 29 2010 ...HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE SOME FLOODING FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES TO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... .A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND SPREAD A STEADY RAIN ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK DURING TUESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM ONE HALF TO ONE INCH BY TUESDAY EVENING. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT OVER VIRGINA AND RACES NORTH TO EASTERN NEW YORK BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD HEAVY RAIN NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE THAN TWO INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAIN WITH THIS FEATURE...WHICH WOULD BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME FLOODING. AREAS WEST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY SHOULD SEE LESS RAIN FROM THIS SECOND SYSTEM. 30 HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES WEST OF THE GENESEE TO 2 TO 2.5 INCHES ACROSS THE GENESEE BASIN TO OVER 3 INCHES EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. NYZ003>008-013-014-020-021-300400- /O.NEW.KBUF.FA.A.0005.101201T0600Z-101202T0600Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-LIVINGSTON- ONTARIO-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCHESTER...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN... OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA...OLEAN... WELLSVILLE 256 PM EST MON NOV 29 2010 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A * FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK... INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...IN CENTRAL NEW YORK... JEFFERSON...LEWIS...NORTHERN CAYUGA AND OSWEGO. IN WESTERN NEW YORK...ALLEGANY...CATTARAUGUS...LIVINGSTON...MONROE...ONTARIO AND WAYNE. * FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT * RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. * RAINFALL WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. EXCESSIVE RUNOFF MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND ALSO IN SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS. LARGER RIVERS SUCH AS THE GENESEE...ALLEGHENY AND BLACK MAY ALSO APPROACH OR REACH FLOOD STAGE LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES && $$ SFM
7 follow-up statements
137 WGUS61 KBUF 300320 FFABUF FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1020 PM EST MON NOV 29 2010 ...HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE SOME FLOODING FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES TO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... .A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND SPREAD A STEADY RAIN ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK DURING TUESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM ONE HALF TO ONE INCH BY TUESDAY EVENING. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT OVER VIRGINIA AND RACES NORTH TO EASTERN NEW YORK BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD HEAVY RAIN NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE THAN TWO INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAIN WITH THIS FEATURE...WHICH WOULD BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME FLOODING. AREAS WEST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY SHOULD SEE LESS RAIN FROM THIS SECOND SYSTEM. 30 HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES WEST OF THE GENESEE TO 2 TO 2.5 INCHES ACROSS THE GENESEE BASIN TO OVER 3 INCHES EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. NYZ003>008-013-014-020-021-301130- /O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0005.101201T0600Z-101202T0600Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-LIVINGSTON- ONTARIO-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCHESTER...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN... OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA...OLEAN... WELLSVILLE 1020 PM EST MON NOV 29 2010 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...JEFFERSON...LEWIS... NORTHERN CAYUGA AND OSWEGO. IN WESTERN NEW YORK...ALLEGANY... CATTARAUGUS...LIVINGSTON...MONROE...ONTARIO AND WAYNE. * FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT * RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. * RAINFALL WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. EXCESSIVE RUNOFF MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND ALSO IN SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS. LARGER RIVERS SUCH AS THE GENESEE... ALLEGHENY AND BLACK MAY ALSO APPROACH OR REACH FLOOD STAGE LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES && $$ RSH
141 WGUS61 KBUF 300846 FFABUF FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 346 AM EST TUE NOV 30 2010 ...HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE SOME FLOODING FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES TO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... .A COLD FRONT MOVING EAST FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A STEADY RAIN ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY TO THE EAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS WILL CAUSE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TO CONTINUE, THE STEADY RAIN WILL THEN TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO EASTERN NEW YORK. AT THIS TIME...IS STILL LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS STRETCHING FROM THE GENESEE BASIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. NYZ003>008-013-014-020-021-301700- /O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0005.101201T0600Z-101202T0600Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-LIVINGSTON- ONTARIO-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCHESTER...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN... OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA...OLEAN... WELLSVILLE 346 AM EST TUE NOV 30 2010 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...JEFFERSON...LEWIS... NORTHERN CAYUGA AND OSWEGO. IN WESTERN NEW YORK...ALLEGANY... CATTARAUGUS...LIVINGSTON...MONROE...ONTARIO AND WAYNE. * FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT * RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. * RAINFALL WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. EXCESSIVE RUNOFF MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND ALSO IN SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS. LARGER RIVERS SUCH AS THE GENESEE... ALLEGHENY AND BLACK MAY ALSO APPROACH OR REACH FLOOD STAGE LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES && $$ TJP
640 WGUS61 KBUF 301552 FFABUF FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1052 AM EST TUE NOV 30 2010 ...HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE FLOODING ACROSS CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .A COLD FRONT MOVING EAST FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A STEADY RAIN ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY TO THE EAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS LIKELY TO FALL BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND MID- MORNING WEDNESDAY...AS A SLUG OF TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS MOST OF NEW YORK. THE HIGHEST RAIN TOTALS WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AND THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF NEW YORK...WITH SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL LIKELY IN THE ALLEGHENY...GENESEE...AND BLACK RIVER BASINS. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING IN THESE BASINS...WITH AN SLIGHT CHANCE OF MODERATE FLOODING IF THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADS ANY FURTHER WEST. THE STEADY RAIN WILL THEN TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO EASTERN NEW YORK. HOWEVER...SLOWER RESPONDING RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. NYZ003>008-013-014-020-021-010000- /O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0005.101201T0600Z-101202T0600Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-LIVINGSTON- ONTARIO-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCHESTER...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN... OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA...OLEAN... WELLSVILLE 1052 AM EST TUE NOV 30 2010 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...JEFFERSON...LEWIS... NORTHERN CAYUGA AND OSWEGO. IN WESTERN NEW YORK...ALLEGANY... CATTARAUGUS...LIVINGSTON...MONROE...ONTARIO AND WAYNE. * FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT * RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. * RAINFALL WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. EXCESSIVE RUNOFF MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND ALSO IN SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS. LARGER RIVERS SUCH AS THE GENESEE... ALLEGHENY AND BLACK MAY ALSO APPROACH OR REACH FLOOD STAGE LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES && $$ APFFEL
181 WGUS61 KBUF 302002 FFABUF FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 302 PM EST TUE NOV 30 2010 ...HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE FLOODING ACROSS CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... .A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS LIKELY TO FALL AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSES... BETWEEN MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND NOON ON WEDNESDAY...AS A SLUG OF MOISTURE STREAMS INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE HIGHEST RAIN TOTALS WILL LIKELY OCCUR JUST TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN IN PENNSYLVANIA AND THE EASTERN HALF NEW YORK STATE. A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS LIKELY IN THE ALLEGHENY...GENESEE...AND BLACK RIVER BASINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING IN THESE BASINS...HOWEVER THE RISK RIVERS WILL EXCEED MODERATE FLOOD STAGE IS ONLY SMALL AT THIS TIME. THE STEADY RAIN WILL THEN TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS INTO NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...IT WILL TAKE TIME FOR RIVERS TO RESPOND...WITH SLOWER RESPONDING RIVERS CRESTING WELL AFTER THE HEAVIEST RAIN ENDS. NYZ003>008-013-014-020-021-010415- /O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0005.101201T0600Z-101202T0600Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-LIVINGSTON- ONTARIO-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCHESTER...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN... OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA...OLEAN... WELLSVILLE 302 PM EST TUE NOV 30 2010 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...JEFFERSON...LEWIS... NORTHERN CAYUGA AND OSWEGO. IN WESTERN NEW YORK...ALLEGANY... CATTARAUGUS...LIVINGSTON...MONROE...ONTARIO AND WAYNE. * FROM 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT * RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. * RAINFALL WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. EXCESSIVE RUNOFF MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND ALSO IN SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS. LARGER RIVERS SUCH AS THE GENESEE... ALLEGHENY AND BLACK MAY ALSO APPROACH OR REACH FLOOD STAGE LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES && $$ APFFEL
906 WGUS61 KBUF 010307 FFABUF FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1007 PM EST TUE NOV 30 2010 ...HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE FLOODING ACROSS CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... .A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS LIKELY TO FALL AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSES... BETWEEN MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND NOON ON WEDNESDAY...AS A SLUG OF MOISTURE STREAMS INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE HIGHEST RAIN TOTALS WILL LIKELY OCCUR JUST TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN IN PENNSYLVANIA AND THE EASTERN HALF NEW YORK STATE. A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS LIKELY IN THE ALLEGHENY... GENESEE...AND BLACK RIVER BASINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING IN THESE BASINS...HOWEVER THE RISK RIVERS WILL EXCEED MODERATE FLOOD STAGE IS ONLY SMALL AT THIS TIME. THE STEADY RAIN WILL THEN TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS INTO NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...IT WILL TAKE TIME FOR RIVERS TO RESPOND...WITH SLOWER RESPONDING RIVERS CRESTING WELL AFTER THE HEAVIEST RAIN ENDS. NYZ003>008-013-014-020-021-011115- /O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0005.101201T0600Z-101202T0600Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-LIVINGSTON- ONTARIO-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCHESTER...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN... OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA...OLEAN... WELLSVILLE 1007 PM EST TUE NOV 30 2010 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...JEFFERSON...LEWIS... NORTHERN CAYUGA AND OSWEGO. IN WESTERN NEW YORK...ALLEGANY... CATTARAUGUS...LIVINGSTON...MONROE...ONTARIO AND WAYNE. * THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT * RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. * RAINFALL WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. EXCESSIVE RUNOFF MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND ALSO IN SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS. LARGER RIVERS SUCH AS THE GENESEE... ALLEGHENY AND BLACK MAY ALSO APPROACH OR REACH FLOOD STAGE LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES && $$ APFFEL
149 WGUS61 KBUF 010935 FFABUF FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 435 AM EST WED DEC 1 2010 ...HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE FLOODING ACROSS CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK TODAY... .A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW YORK TODAY. THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS LIKELY TO FALL THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE FINGER LAKES EASTWARD. THE RAIN WILL DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. NYZ003>008-013-014-020-021-011745- /O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0005.000000T0000Z-101202T0600Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-LIVINGSTON- ONTARIO-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCHESTER...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN... OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA...OLEAN... WELLSVILLE 435 AM EST WED DEC 1 2010 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT... THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...JEFFERSON...LEWIS... NORTHERN CAYUGA AND OSWEGO. IN WESTERN NEW YORK...ALLEGANY... CATTARAUGUS...LIVINGSTON...MONROE...ONTARIO AND WAYNE. * THROUGH LATE TONIGHT * WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED IN THE WATCH AREA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. * RAINFALL WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. EXCESSIVE RUNOFF MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND ALSO IN SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS. LARGER RIVERS SUCH AS THE GENESEE...ALLEGHENY AND BLACK WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE SIGNIFICANT RISES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES && $$ TMA
589 WGUS61 KBUF 011656 FFABUF FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1156 AM EST WED DEC 1 2010 NYZ003>008-013-014-020-021-011800- /O.CAN.KBUF.FA.A.0005.000000T0000Z-101202T0600Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-LIVINGSTON- ONTARIO-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCHESTER...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN... OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA...OLEAN... WELLSVILLE 1156 AM EST WED DEC 1 2010 ...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED... THE FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK HAS BEEN CANCELLED. FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA. WITH NO ADDITIONAL FLOOD WARNINGS ANTICIPATED...THE FLOOD WATCH WILL NO LONGER BE NEEDED. AGAIN...EXISTING WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT. PLEASE REFER TO WARNING AND ADVISORY PRODUCTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION THIS ONGOING EVENT. $$ APFFEL
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this flood watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flood watch went out at Nov 29, 9:47 AM EST, 5 hours 9 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Nov 29, 9:47 AM EST, 5 hours 9 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 947 AM EST MON NOV 29 2010 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL SET UP A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH WILL BRING PLEASANT WEATHER TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES ON TUESDAY WILL SET UP A PERSISTENT AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE GULF STATES. THIS WILL BRING A SOAKING RAINFALL TO THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... ALL SIGNS POINT TO A LATE NOVEMBER GEM FOR TODAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL BRING A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. WITH THE LOWER LAYERS BONE DRY...THE ONLY CLOUDS TODAY WILL BE HIGH CLOUDS...WHICH SHOULD GENERALLY BE THIN AND ALLOW PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TO REACH THE SURFACE. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MID 40S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND LOWER 40S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE TUG HILL AND OTHER AREAS WITH SNOWPACK EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHICH STAY IN THE UPPER 30S. UNFORTUNATELY...OUR WEATHER WILL TAKE A TURN FOR THE WORSE TOWARD MID-WEEK. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TONIGHT WILL STRENGTHEN AND STALL AS IT BECOMES CAPTURED BY AN UPPER LOW. THIS WILL CAUSE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. OUT AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL QUICKLY TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE TOWARD THE REGION. USING A BLEND OF AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE (NAM/GFS/RGEM/SREF)...THERE IS RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING...WITH THE SREF ENSEMBLE THE HEAVIEST WEIGHTED OF THE BUNCH. GIVEN STRONG FOCUS WITH THE LLJ...HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE RAIN THIS FEATURE...WITH THE RAIN SHIELD EXPECTED TO SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT RAIN TO ENTER FAR WESTERN NY A TAD AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH A TARGET START TIME IN BUFFALO JUST SHY OF DAYBREAK...WHILE RAIN WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK FOR ROCHESTER AND LOCATIONS EAST. THE STRONGEST PORTION OF THE LOW LEVEL JET JET WILL REMAIN UPSTREAM THROUGH TONIGHT...HOWEVER NAM/GFS BUFKIT PROFILES BOTH SHOW 40 KTS AT 925 MB IN WESTERN PORTIONS LATE TONIGHT...WITH STRONGER WINDS JUST UPSTREAM. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH BY DAYBREAK. WINDS SHOULD ALSO PICK UP ON THE NIAGARA FRONTIER TOWARD DAYBREAK...WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH THERE. LOWS WILL VARY...WITH TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT THIS EVENING...THEN RISING RATHER MARKEDLY WEST OF ROCHESTER AS SE WINDS ALOFT INCREASE. MOST AREAS WILL NOT DROP BELOW FREEZING...EXCEPT EAST OF ONTARIO...WHERE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS MAY ALLOW SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM LATE. DO NOT SEE ANY POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION...WITH ALL INDICATIONS THAT PRECIPITATION WILL START AS RAIN. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY AND TUESDAY...THEN STALL IN THE VICINITY OF JAMES BAY ON WEDNESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH OF THIS LOW LOW WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH OUR AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY...THEN WILL SLOWLY OOZE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND LIFTS NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS STILL SUGGESTING A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT FROM TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. A BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM AND HPC QPF GUIDANCE INDICATES A POTENTIAL FOR ABOUT 2 TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS OUR CWA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TARGETED ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY. AS A RESULT...HYDRO CONCERNS WILL BECOME A BIG ISSUE AS THIS EVENT UNFOLDS. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS CONCERN IN THE HWO. A 60 TO 70 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET LIFTING NORTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL TRANSPORT VERY MOIST AIR AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF A 130-150+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET WILL ENHANCE LARGE SCALE LIFT. ALL OF THIS WILL ADD UP TO A NEAR CERTAINTY OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. THE STEADIEST RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO EASTERN NEW YORK STATE. COLDER AIR FOLLOWING THE FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THE COLDER AIR DEEPENS DURING THE AFTERNOON...A RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL SPREAD TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AS WELL...EVENTUALLY CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN NEW YORK...WHERE SOME ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE ERIE IS LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS EVEN COLDER AIR ADVECTS ACROSS THE LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DOWNWIND OF BOTH LAKES. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE FAIRLY WELL-ALIGNED FLOW...AND DEEPER MOISTURE/MORE MODERATE WINDS THAN WERE EXPERIENCED WITH OUR PREVIOUS EVENT. AS TO WHERE THE LAKE EFFECT MAY OCCUR...THE NAM AND GFS SUGGESTS THAT A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD STEER SOME OF THE STEADIER LAKE SNOWS NORTH TOWARD BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THESE WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH OUR AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER ON TUESDAY...AND ACROSS THE BLACK RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE EXTENDED TIME PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF BOTH LAKES ON THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND...LIMITING SUNSHINE AND ALLOWING FOR A PASSING SNOW FLURRY OR SNOW SHOWER EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RUN AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. THURSDAY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHALL CONTINUE OFF BOTH LAKES. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE PREDOMINATE SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY LINGER INTO THURSDAY...BEFORE THE WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT...CAUSING LAKE SNOWS TO SHIFT SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN. LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS REMAIN NEAR 10K FEET THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY...WINDS ALIGNED THROUGH 850 HPA AND WITH MOISTURE REMAINING IN THE -12 TO -18C LAYER EXPECT GOOD SNOW CRYSTAL GROWTH DEVELOPMENT. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE LIKELY POPS THURSDAY DOWNWIND OF BOTH LAKES. THE LARGE SCALE FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A LONGWAVE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST US...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TOWARDS BAFFIN ISLAND AND GREENLAND. THIS FLOW IS TYPICAL OF A NEGATIVE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION...WHICH WE ARE CURRENTLY IN. WITH THIS PATTERN WE EXPECT A POOL OF COLD AIR OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...THOUGH PASSING SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DISRUPT ANY LES BANDS...BUT GIVE THE POSSIBILITIES OF A GENERAL SNOW SHOWER EVERYWHERE. WITH THIS HEMISPHERIC FLOW IN MIND EXPECT THESE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT OFF BOTH LAKES AS SFC OMEGA SUPPORTS SOME LIFT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE SNOW CRYSTAL GROWTH AREA REMAINS AND TEMPERATURES 5K ALOFT REMAIN AROUND -8 TO -11C. WINDS UP THROUGH 10K FEET ALSO REMAIN UNDER 30 KNOTS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL RESIDENCE TIME AND INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD THAT THE LAKE SNOW BANDS WILL MAINTAIN THEIR STRUCTURE. 12Z MODELS OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO CUT UNDERNEATH THE COOL DOME OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH THE STORM PASSING FROM THE UPPER PLAINS FRIDAY TO OUR SOUTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WILL ALLOW FOR LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER SATURDAY NIGHT...THOUGH ANY CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE MORE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ITSELF. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL FOR DAY TIME HIGHS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. WITH SKIES REMAINING OVERCAST MUCH OF THE TIME...NIGHT TIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND NORMAL. && .AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. A SIGNIFICANT DRYING IN THE LOW LAYERS PROVIDES GOOD CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME...WITH THE ONLY CLOUD COVER BEING HIGH CLOUDS. A LARGE AREA OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT. BRING THIS IN TOWARD 12Z AT JHW/BUF/IAG/...WITH CONDITIONS QUICKLY TRANSITIONING TO MVFR OR LOWER SHORTLY AFTER ITS ONSET NEAR 12Z. ALSO OF CONCERN WILL BE A LOW LEVEL JET IN THE 40 TO 50 KNOT RANGE TONIGHT. OUTLOOK... TUESDAY...VFR BECOMING MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN DEVELOPING. WEDNESDAY...IFR/MVFR WITH RAIN TAPERING OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS. LOCAL LAKE SNOWS BUF/ART WED NT. THURSDAY...GENERALLY MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND LOCAL LAKE EFFECT EAST OF THE LAKES. FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR. && .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL TODAY...WITH GENERALLY A LIGHT SE FLOW. SE WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT...AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET APPROACHES. LARGELY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE CORE OF THIS WILL NOT MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THIS SAID...WINDS ALOFT WILL BE VERY IMPRESSIVE...WITH 60 TO 70 KTS AT 850 MB. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED STARTING AS EARLY AS LATE TONIGHT ON LAKE ERIE...AND TUESDAY ELSEWHERE. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR GALES IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. JET APPEARS STRONGEST ON EASTERN PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS MAY REQUIRE A WATCH IN THE FUTURE...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS SHY GIVEN QUESTIONS AS TO HOW MUCH WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE IN A FAIRLY STABLE ENVIRONMENT. WINDS WILL BE S OR SE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...WHICH IS GENERALLY NOT FAVORABLE FOR BUILDING WAVES IN OUR WATERS. THE FRONT WILL BE A FAIRLY SLOW MOVER...CROSSING LAKE ERIE AROUND TUESDAY EVENING...AND LAKE ONTARIO TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT W-SW BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH A DECENT FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && SYNOPSIS...APFFEL NEAR TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK SHORT TERM...JJR/TJP LONG TERM...THOMAS/TJP AVIATION...APFFEL MARINE...APFFEL
Hazardous weather outlook, Nov 29, 5:20 AM EST, 9 hours 36 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 520 AM EST MON NOV 29 2010 NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-301030- NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS- NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA- CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE- 520 AM EST MON NOV 29 2010 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON TUESDAY AND BECOME MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES WHILE CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL FOR 2.0 TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN WOULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA CREEKS AND RIVERS...WITH WATER LEVELS APPROACHING BANKFULL STAGE IN SOME CASES. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF LEZ020-040-041-LOZ042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-301030- UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR- LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK- LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER- LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH- LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY- LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY- LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER- SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG- SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS- 520 AM EST MON NOV 29 2010 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE ONTARIO AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF
The office that day
Everything else NWS Buffalo, NY issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 29, 3:17 PM EST | Gale Warning | BUF | 24 hr | |
| Nov 29, 3:17 PM EST | Small Craft Advisory | BUF | 3 days | |
| Nov 29, 3:29 PM EST | High Wind Warning | BUF | Chautauqua, Erie | 23 hr |
| Nov 29, 3:29 PM EST | Wind Advisory | BUF | Cattaraugus, Wyoming | 23 hr |
Nearby
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.