Alert archive / New York / Flood Watches in 2010

Flood Watch 5, NWS Buffalo, NY

November 29, 201010 counties in New York

NWS Buffalo, NY issued this flood watch at Nov 29, 2010, 2:56 PM EST for 10 counties in New York. It took effect at Dec 1, 2010, 1:00 AM EST. It was in force for 11 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Nov 29, 2010, 2:56 PM EST (19:56 UTC)
In effect from
Dec 1, 2010, 1:00 AM EST
Expired
Dec 1, 2010, 11:56 AM EST
In force
11 hr
Issued by
NWS Buffalo, NY
Flood severity
None

Counties Allegany County, NY, Cattaraugus County, NY, Cayuga County, NY, Jefferson County, NY, Lewis County, NY, Livingston County, NY, Monroe County, NY, Ontario County, NY, Oswego County, NY, Wayne County, NY

The radar

The Binghamton radar (KBGM), 130 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:55 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 12:00Z, 7.9 hours before the alert went out and 133 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 12:00Z on 2010-11-29Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 12:00Z on 2010-11-29The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 17 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
2343 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
34 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
17 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
41 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

359 
WGUS61 KBUF 291956
FFABUF

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
256 PM EST MON NOV 29 2010

...HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE SOME FLOODING FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY
AND FINGER LAKES TO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY...

.A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND SPREAD
A STEADY RAIN ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK DURING TUESDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM ONE HALF TO ONE INCH BY TUESDAY
EVENING. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK TUESDAY
NIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT OVER VIRGINA AND
RACES NORTH TO EASTERN NEW YORK BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
SPREAD HEAVY RAIN NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE THAN
TWO INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAIN WITH THIS FEATURE...WHICH WOULD BE ENOUGH
TO CAUSE SOME FLOODING. AREAS WEST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY SHOULD
SEE LESS RAIN FROM THIS SECOND SYSTEM. 30 HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS
WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES WEST OF THE GENESEE TO 2 TO 2.5 INCHES
ACROSS THE GENESEE BASIN TO OVER 3 INCHES EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.


NYZ003>008-013-014-020-021-300400-
/O.NEW.KBUF.FA.A.0005.101201T0600Z-101202T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-LIVINGSTON-
ONTARIO-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCHESTER...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...
OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA...OLEAN...
WELLSVILLE
256 PM EST MON NOV 29 2010

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK...
  INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...
  JEFFERSON...LEWIS...NORTHERN CAYUGA AND OSWEGO. IN WESTERN NEW 
  YORK...ALLEGANY...CATTARAUGUS...LIVINGSTON...MONROE...ONTARIO 
  AND WAYNE.

* FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT

* RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM TUESDAY
  AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS EAST OF
  LAKE ONTARIO.

* RAINFALL WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. EXCESSIVE RUNOFF MAY PRODUCE
  LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND ALSO IN SMALL STREAMS
  AND CREEKS. LARGER RIVERS SUCH AS THE GENESEE...ALLEGHENY AND
  BLACK MAY ALSO APPROACH OR REACH FLOOD STAGE LATER WEDNESDAY AND
  WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES

&&

$$

SFM
7 follow-up statements
137 
WGUS61 KBUF 300320
FFABUF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1020 PM EST MON NOV 29 2010

...HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE SOME FLOODING FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY
AND FINGER LAKES TO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY...

.A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND SPREAD
A STEADY RAIN ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK DURING TUESDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM ONE HALF TO ONE INCH BY TUESDAY
EVENING. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK TUESDAY
NIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT OVER VIRGINIA
AND RACES NORTH TO EASTERN NEW YORK BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL SPREAD HEAVY RAIN NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE THAN TWO INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAIN WITH THIS FEATURE...WHICH
WOULD BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME FLOODING. AREAS WEST OF THE GENESEE
VALLEY SHOULD SEE LESS RAIN FROM THIS SECOND SYSTEM. 30 HOUR
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES WEST OF THE GENESEE
TO 2 TO 2.5 INCHES ACROSS THE GENESEE BASIN TO OVER 3 INCHES EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO.

NYZ003>008-013-014-020-021-301130-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0005.101201T0600Z-101202T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-LIVINGSTON-
ONTARIO-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCHESTER...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...
OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA...OLEAN...
WELLSVILLE
1020 PM EST MON NOV 29 2010

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE 
 FOLLOWING COUNTIES...IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...JEFFERSON...LEWIS...
 NORTHERN CAYUGA AND OSWEGO. IN WESTERN NEW YORK...ALLEGANY...
 CATTARAUGUS...LIVINGSTON...MONROE...ONTARIO AND WAYNE.

* FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT

* RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM TUESDAY 
 AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS EAST 
 OF LAKE ONTARIO. 

* RAINFALL WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. EXCESSIVE RUNOFF MAY PRODUCE 
 LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND ALSO IN SMALL 
 STREAMS AND CREEKS. LARGER RIVERS SUCH AS THE GENESEE...
 ALLEGHENY AND BLACK MAY ALSO APPROACH OR REACH FLOOD STAGE 
 LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES

&&

$$

RSH
141 
WGUS61 KBUF 300846
FFABUF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
346 AM EST TUE NOV 30 2010

...HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE SOME FLOODING FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY
AND FINGER LAKES TO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...

.A COLD FRONT MOVING EAST FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
A STEADY RAIN ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY. THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY TO THE EAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WHILE 
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS WILL
CAUSE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TO CONTINUE, THE STEADY RAIN WILL
THEN TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO EASTERN NEW YORK. AT THIS TIME...IS STILL LOOKS LIKE
THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS STRETCHING FROM THE
GENESEE BASIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY.


NYZ003>008-013-014-020-021-301700-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0005.101201T0600Z-101202T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-LIVINGSTON-
ONTARIO-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCHESTER...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...
OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA...OLEAN...
WELLSVILLE
346 AM EST TUE NOV 30 2010

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE 
  FOLLOWING COUNTIES...IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...JEFFERSON...LEWIS...
  NORTHERN CAYUGA AND OSWEGO. IN WESTERN NEW YORK...ALLEGANY...
  CATTARAUGUS...LIVINGSTON...MONROE...ONTARIO AND WAYNE.

* FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT

* RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM THIS
  AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED EAST
  OF LAKE ONTARIO.

* RAINFALL WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. EXCESSIVE RUNOFF MAY PRODUCE
  LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND ALSO IN SMALL STREAMS
  AND CREEKS. LARGER RIVERS SUCH AS THE GENESEE... ALLEGHENY AND
  BLACK MAY ALSO APPROACH OR REACH FLOOD STAGE LATER WEDNESDAY AND
  WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES

&&

$$

TJP
640 
WGUS61 KBUF 301552
FFABUF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1052 AM EST TUE NOV 30 2010

...HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE FLOODING ACROSS CENTRAL AND PORTIONS
OF WESTERN NEW YORK LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.A COLD FRONT MOVING EAST FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
A STEADY RAIN ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY TO THE EAST TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. 

THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS LIKELY TO FALL BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND MID-
MORNING WEDNESDAY...AS A SLUG OF TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS
MOST OF NEW YORK. THE HIGHEST RAIN TOTALS WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA AND THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF NEW YORK...WITH SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL LIKELY IN THE ALLEGHENY...GENESEE...AND BLACK RIVER
BASINS. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING IN THESE BASINS...WITH
AN SLIGHT CHANCE OF MODERATE FLOODING IF THE AXIS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL SPREADS ANY FURTHER WEST. 

THE STEADY RAIN WILL THEN TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO EASTERN NEW YORK. HOWEVER...SLOWER
RESPONDING RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.


NYZ003>008-013-014-020-021-010000-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0005.101201T0600Z-101202T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-LIVINGSTON-
ONTARIO-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCHESTER...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...
OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA...OLEAN...
WELLSVILLE
1052 AM EST TUE NOV 30 2010

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE
  FOLLOWING COUNTIES...IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...JEFFERSON...LEWIS...
  NORTHERN CAYUGA AND OSWEGO. IN WESTERN NEW YORK...ALLEGANY...
  CATTARAUGUS...LIVINGSTON...MONROE...ONTARIO AND WAYNE.

* FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT

* RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH HIGHEST
  AMOUNTS EXPECTED EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

* RAINFALL WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. EXCESSIVE RUNOFF MAY PRODUCE
  LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND ALSO IN SMALL STREAMS
  AND CREEKS. LARGER RIVERS SUCH AS THE GENESEE... ALLEGHENY AND
  BLACK MAY ALSO APPROACH OR REACH FLOOD STAGE LATE WEDNESDAY AND
  WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES

&&

$$

APFFEL
181 
WGUS61 KBUF 302002
FFABUF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
302 PM EST TUE NOV 30 2010

...HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE FLOODING ACROSS CENTRAL AND PORTIONS
OF WESTERN NEW YORK LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS LIKELY TO FALL AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSES...
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND NOON ON WEDNESDAY...AS A SLUG OF
MOISTURE STREAMS INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE
HIGHEST RAIN TOTALS WILL LIKELY OCCUR JUST TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN IN PENNSYLVANIA AND THE EASTERN HALF NEW YORK
STATE. A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS LIKELY IN THE
ALLEGHENY...GENESEE...AND BLACK RIVER BASINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING IN THESE BASINS...HOWEVER THE RISK
RIVERS WILL EXCEED MODERATE FLOOD STAGE IS ONLY SMALL AT THIS TIME.

THE STEADY RAIN WILL THEN TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS INTO NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...IT WILL TAKE
TIME FOR RIVERS TO RESPOND...WITH SLOWER RESPONDING RIVERS
CRESTING WELL AFTER THE HEAVIEST RAIN ENDS.

NYZ003>008-013-014-020-021-010415-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0005.101201T0600Z-101202T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-LIVINGSTON-
ONTARIO-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCHESTER...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...
OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA...OLEAN...
WELLSVILLE
302 PM EST TUE NOV 30 2010

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE 
 FOLLOWING COUNTIES...IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...JEFFERSON...LEWIS...
 NORTHERN CAYUGA AND OSWEGO. IN WESTERN NEW YORK...ALLEGANY...
 CATTARAUGUS...LIVINGSTON...MONROE...ONTARIO AND WAYNE.

* FROM 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT

* RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH HIGHEST 
 AMOUNTS EXPECTED EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. 

* RAINFALL WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. EXCESSIVE RUNOFF MAY PRODUCE 
 LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND ALSO IN SMALL 
 STREAMS AND CREEKS. LARGER RIVERS SUCH AS THE GENESEE... 
 ALLEGHENY AND BLACK MAY ALSO APPROACH OR REACH FLOOD STAGE 
 LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES

&&

$$

APFFEL
906 
WGUS61 KBUF 010307
FFABUF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1007 PM EST TUE NOV 30 2010

...HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE FLOODING ACROSS CENTRAL AND PORTIONS
OF WESTERN NEW YORK LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS LIKELY TO FALL AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CROSSES... BETWEEN MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND NOON ON WEDNESDAY...AS A
SLUG OF MOISTURE STREAMS INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THE HIGHEST RAIN TOTALS WILL LIKELY OCCUR JUST TO OUR SOUTH
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN IN PENNSYLVANIA AND THE EASTERN HALF NEW
YORK STATE. A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS LIKELY IN THE ALLEGHENY...
GENESEE...AND BLACK RIVER BASINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING IN THESE BASINS...HOWEVER THE RISK RIVERS
WILL EXCEED MODERATE FLOOD STAGE IS ONLY SMALL AT THIS TIME.

THE STEADY RAIN WILL THEN TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS INTO NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...IT WILL TAKE
TIME FOR RIVERS TO RESPOND...WITH SLOWER RESPONDING RIVERS
CRESTING WELL AFTER THE HEAVIEST RAIN ENDS.

NYZ003>008-013-014-020-021-011115-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0005.101201T0600Z-101202T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-LIVINGSTON-
ONTARIO-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCHESTER...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...
OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA...OLEAN...
WELLSVILLE
1007 PM EST TUE NOV 30 2010

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE 
 FOLLOWING COUNTIES...IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...JEFFERSON...LEWIS...
 NORTHERN CAYUGA AND OSWEGO. IN WESTERN NEW YORK...ALLEGANY...
 CATTARAUGUS...LIVINGSTON...MONROE...ONTARIO AND WAYNE.

* THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT

* RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH HIGHEST 
 AMOUNTS EXPECTED EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. 

* RAINFALL WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. EXCESSIVE RUNOFF MAY PRODUCE 
 LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND ALSO IN SMALL 
 STREAMS AND CREEKS. LARGER RIVERS SUCH AS THE GENESEE... 
 ALLEGHENY AND BLACK MAY ALSO APPROACH OR REACH FLOOD STAGE 
 LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES

&&

$$

APFFEL
149 
WGUS61 KBUF 010935
FFABUF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
435 AM EST WED DEC 1 2010

...HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE FLOODING ACROSS CENTRAL AND PORTIONS
OF WESTERN NEW YORK TODAY...

.A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW YORK
TODAY. THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS LIKELY TO FALL THIS MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSES. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE FINGER
LAKES EASTWARD.

THE RAIN WILL DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

NYZ003>008-013-014-020-021-011745-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0005.000000T0000Z-101202T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-LIVINGSTON-
ONTARIO-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCHESTER...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...
OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA...OLEAN...
WELLSVILLE
435 AM EST WED DEC 1 2010

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE 
  FOLLOWING COUNTIES...IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...JEFFERSON...LEWIS...
  NORTHERN CAYUGA AND OSWEGO. IN WESTERN NEW YORK...ALLEGANY...
  CATTARAUGUS...LIVINGSTON...MONROE...ONTARIO AND WAYNE.

* THROUGH LATE TONIGHT

* WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES HAVE ALREADY
  OCCURRED IN THE WATCH AREA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO
  2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED EAST OF LAKE
  ONTARIO.

* RAINFALL WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. EXCESSIVE RUNOFF MAY PRODUCE
  LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND ALSO IN SMALL STREAMS
  AND CREEKS. LARGER RIVERS SUCH AS THE GENESEE...ALLEGHENY AND
  BLACK WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE SIGNIFICANT RISES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES

&&

$$

TMA
589 
WGUS61 KBUF 011656
FFABUF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1156 AM EST WED DEC 1 2010

NYZ003>008-013-014-020-021-011800-
/O.CAN.KBUF.FA.A.0005.000000T0000Z-101202T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-LIVINGSTON-
ONTARIO-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCHESTER...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...
OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA...OLEAN...
WELLSVILLE
1156 AM EST WED DEC 1 2010

...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK HAS
BEEN CANCELLED. 

FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATCH
AREA. WITH NO ADDITIONAL FLOOD WARNINGS ANTICIPATED...THE FLOOD
WATCH WILL NO LONGER BE NEEDED. AGAIN...EXISTING WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT.

PLEASE REFER TO WARNING AND ADVISORY PRODUCTS FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION THIS ONGOING EVENT.

$$

APFFEL

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flood watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flood watch went out at Nov 29, 9:47 AM EST, 5 hours 9 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Nov 29, 9:47 AM EST, 5 hours 9 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
947 AM EST MON NOV 29 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL SET UP A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW
WHICH WILL BRING PLEASANT WEATHER TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK
TODAY. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES ON TUESDAY WILL
SET UP A PERSISTENT AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE GULF STATES.
THIS WILL BRING A SOAKING RAINFALL TO THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ALL SIGNS POINT TO A LATE NOVEMBER GEM FOR TODAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE
TO OUR EAST WILL BRING A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. WITH THE LOWER LAYERS BONE DRY...THE ONLY CLOUDS TODAY
WILL BE HIGH CLOUDS...WHICH SHOULD GENERALLY BE THIN AND ALLOW
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TO REACH THE SURFACE. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MID 40S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND LOWER 40S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE TUG HILL AND OTHER AREAS WITH SNOWPACK
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHICH STAY IN THE UPPER 30S.

UNFORTUNATELY...OUR WEATHER WILL TAKE A TURN FOR THE WORSE TOWARD
MID-WEEK. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TONIGHT
WILL STRENGTHEN AND STALL AS IT BECOMES CAPTURED BY AN UPPER LOW.
THIS WILL CAUSE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT. OUT AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
JET WILL QUICKLY TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE TOWARD THE REGION.

USING A BLEND OF AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE
(NAM/GFS/RGEM/SREF)...THERE IS RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
TIMING...WITH THE SREF ENSEMBLE THE HEAVIEST WEIGHTED OF THE BUNCH.
GIVEN STRONG FOCUS WITH THE LLJ...HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE
RAIN THIS FEATURE...WITH THE RAIN SHIELD EXPECTED TO SPREAD FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT RAIN TO ENTER FAR
WESTERN NY A TAD AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH A TARGET START TIME IN
BUFFALO JUST SHY OF DAYBREAK...WHILE RAIN WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER DAYBREAK FOR ROCHESTER AND LOCATIONS EAST.

THE STRONGEST PORTION OF THE LOW LEVEL JET JET WILL REMAIN UPSTREAM
THROUGH TONIGHT...HOWEVER NAM/GFS BUFKIT PROFILES BOTH SHOW 40 KTS
AT 925 MB IN WESTERN PORTIONS LATE TONIGHT...WITH STRONGER WINDS
JUST UPSTREAM. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA
RIDGE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH BY DAYBREAK.
WINDS SHOULD ALSO PICK UP ON THE NIAGARA FRONTIER TOWARD
DAYBREAK...WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH THERE.

LOWS WILL VARY...WITH TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT THIS EVENING...THEN
RISING RATHER MARKEDLY WEST OF ROCHESTER AS SE WINDS ALOFT INCREASE.
MOST AREAS WILL NOT DROP BELOW FREEZING...EXCEPT EAST OF
ONTARIO...WHERE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS MAY ALLOW SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM LATE.  DO NOT SEE ANY
POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION...WITH ALL INDICATIONS THAT
PRECIPITATION WILL START AS RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY AND TUESDAY...THEN STALL IN
THE VICINITY OF JAMES BAY ON WEDNESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT TRAILING
SOUTH OF THIS LOW LOW WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH OUR AREA FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY...THEN WILL SLOWLY OOZE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND
LIFTS NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS
STILL SUGGESTING A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. A BLEND OF THE
GFS/NAM AND HPC QPF GUIDANCE INDICATES A POTENTIAL FOR ABOUT 2 TO
2.5 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS OUR CWA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL TARGETED ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY.
AS A RESULT...HYDRO CONCERNS WILL BECOME A BIG ISSUE AS THIS EVENT
UNFOLDS. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS CONCERN IN THE HWO.

A 60 TO 70 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET LIFTING NORTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL TRANSPORT VERY MOIST AIR AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT.
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF A 130-150+
KT UPPER LEVEL JET WILL ENHANCE LARGE SCALE LIFT. ALL OF THIS WILL
ADD UP TO A NEAR CERTAINTY OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE STEADIEST RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO EASTERN NEW YORK STATE. COLDER AIR FOLLOWING
THE FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THE
COLDER AIR DEEPENS DURING THE AFTERNOON...A RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL
SPREAD TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AS WELL...EVENTUALLY CHANGING OVER TO
ALL SNOW ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN NEW YORK...WHERE SOME ENHANCEMENT
OFF LAKE ERIE IS LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

AS EVEN COLDER AIR ADVECTS ACROSS THE LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WILL BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DOWNWIND OF BOTH LAKES.
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE FAIRLY WELL-ALIGNED
FLOW...AND DEEPER MOISTURE/MORE MODERATE WINDS THAN WERE EXPERIENCED
WITH OUR PREVIOUS EVENT. AS TO WHERE THE LAKE EFFECT MAY OCCUR...THE
NAM AND GFS SUGGESTS THAT A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD STEER SOME OF THE STEADIER LAKE SNOWS
NORTH TOWARD BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THESE WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH OUR AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW
IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL WEDNESDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT.

INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER ON TUESDAY...AND
ACROSS THE BLACK RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED TIME PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF BOTH LAKES ON THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND...LIMITING SUNSHINE AND
ALLOWING FOR A PASSING SNOW FLURRY OR SNOW SHOWER EACH DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RUN AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THIS TIME
PERIOD.

THURSDAY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHALL CONTINUE OFF BOTH LAKES. THE
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE PREDOMINATE SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY
LINGER INTO THURSDAY...BEFORE THE WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE WEST
THURSDAY NIGHT...CAUSING LAKE SNOWS TO SHIFT SOUTH OF
BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN. LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS REMAIN NEAR
10K FEET THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY...WINDS ALIGNED THROUGH 850 HPA
AND WITH MOISTURE REMAINING IN THE -12 TO -18C LAYER EXPECT GOOD
SNOW CRYSTAL GROWTH DEVELOPMENT. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE LIKELY POPS
THURSDAY DOWNWIND OF BOTH LAKES.

THE LARGE SCALE FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A LONGWAVE
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST
US...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TOWARDS BAFFIN ISLAND AND GREENLAND.
THIS FLOW IS TYPICAL OF A NEGATIVE NORTH ATLANTIC
OSCILLATION...WHICH WE ARE CURRENTLY IN. WITH THIS PATTERN WE EXPECT
A POOL OF COLD AIR OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...THOUGH
PASSING SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DISRUPT
ANY LES BANDS...BUT GIVE THE POSSIBILITIES OF A GENERAL SNOW SHOWER
EVERYWHERE.

WITH THIS HEMISPHERIC FLOW IN MIND EXPECT THESE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT OFF BOTH LAKES AS
SFC OMEGA SUPPORTS SOME LIFT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE SNOW
CRYSTAL GROWTH AREA REMAINS AND TEMPERATURES 5K ALOFT REMAIN AROUND
-8 TO -11C. WINDS UP THROUGH 10K FEET ALSO REMAIN UNDER 30 KNOTS
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL
RESIDENCE TIME AND INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD THAT THE LAKE SNOW BANDS
WILL MAINTAIN THEIR STRUCTURE.

12Z MODELS OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO
CUT UNDERNEATH THE COOL DOME OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH THE STORM
PASSING FROM THE UPPER PLAINS FRIDAY TO OUR SOUTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. WILL ALLOW FOR LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
SATURDAY NIGHT...THOUGH ANY CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE MORE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ITSELF.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL FOR DAY TIME HIGHS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. WITH SKIES REMAINING OVERCAST MUCH OF THE
TIME...NIGHT TIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS OVER
THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. A SIGNIFICANT DRYING IN THE LOW
LAYERS PROVIDES GOOD CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS DURING THIS
TIME...WITH THE ONLY CLOUD COVER BEING HIGH CLOUDS.

A LARGE AREA OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT. BRING THIS IN TOWARD 12Z
AT JHW/BUF/IAG/...WITH CONDITIONS QUICKLY TRANSITIONING TO MVFR OR
LOWER SHORTLY AFTER ITS ONSET NEAR 12Z.

ALSO OF CONCERN WILL BE A LOW LEVEL JET IN THE 40 TO 50 KNOT RANGE
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR BECOMING MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN DEVELOPING.
WEDNESDAY...IFR/MVFR WITH RAIN TAPERING OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS. LOCAL
LAKE SNOWS BUF/ART WED NT.
THURSDAY...GENERALLY MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND LOCAL
LAKE EFFECT EAST OF THE LAKES.
FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL TODAY...WITH GENERALLY A LIGHT
SE FLOW. SE WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT...AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
APPROACHES. LARGELY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE CORE OF THIS
WILL NOT MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THIS SAID...WINDS ALOFT WILL BE
VERY IMPRESSIVE...WITH 60 TO 70 KTS AT 850 MB. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED STARTING AS EARLY AS LATE TONIGHT
ON LAKE ERIE...AND TUESDAY ELSEWHERE. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR GALES
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. JET APPEARS STRONGEST ON
EASTERN PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS MAY REQUIRE A WATCH IN THE
FUTURE...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS SHY GIVEN QUESTIONS AS TO HOW
MUCH WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE IN A FAIRLY STABLE ENVIRONMENT.

WINDS WILL BE S OR SE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...WHICH IS GENERALLY NOT
FAVORABLE FOR BUILDING WAVES IN OUR WATERS. THE FRONT WILL BE A
FAIRLY SLOW MOVER...CROSSING LAKE ERIE AROUND TUESDAY EVENING...AND
LAKE ONTARIO TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT W-SW BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH A DECENT FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...JJR/TJP
LONG TERM...THOMAS/TJP
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL
Hazardous weather outlook, Nov 29, 5:20 AM EST, 9 hours 36 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
520 AM EST MON NOV 29 2010

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-301030-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
520 AM EST MON NOV 29 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON TUESDAY AND BECOME MODERATE TO
HEAVY AT TIMES WHILE CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL FOR 2.0 TO 2.5
INCHES OF RAIN DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN WOULD
CAUSE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA CREEKS AND RIVERS...WITH WATER
LEVELS APPROACHING BANKFULL STAGE IN SOME CASES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-301030-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
520 AM EST MON NOV 29 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE
ONTARIO AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

The office that day

Everything else NWS Buffalo, NY issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Nov 29, 3:17 PM ESTGale WarningBUF24 hr
Nov 29, 3:17 PM ESTSmall Craft AdvisoryBUF3 days
Nov 29, 3:29 PM ESTHigh Wind WarningBUFChautauqua, Erie23 hr
Nov 29, 3:29 PM ESTWind AdvisoryBUFCattaraugus, Wyoming23 hr

Nearby

Flood Watches in New York, 2010Every flood watch in 2010

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.