Flood Watch 1, NWS Buffalo, NY

932 
WGUS61 KBUF 240253
FFABUF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
953 PM EST SAT JAN 23 2010

...RAIN AND SNOWMELT MAY PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTH COUNTRY...

.A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING ACROSS THE MID SECTION
OF THE NATION WILL LIFT INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL DELIVER AMPLE MOISTURE AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY.

THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK...
WITH THE WESTERN EDGE OF HEAVIER RAINFALL POSSIBLY IMPACTING
LEWIS COUNTY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE.
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RESULT IN INCREASED SNOWMELT LATER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM RAIN AND SNOWMELT MAY RESULT IN MINOR
FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. SIGNIFICANT
RISES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE MAIN STEM OF THE BLACK RIVER...
ALTHOUGH THIS IS A SLOW RESPONDING RIVER SO THE HIGHER WATER
LEVELS WOULD NOT OCCUR UNTIL SEVERAL DAYS AFTER THE RAINFALL
ENDS.

NYZ008-241100-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.100125T0200Z-100126T0000Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...LOWVILLE
953 PM EST SAT JAN 23 2010

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF CENTRAL NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
 COUNTY...LEWIS.

* FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING

* MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL COMBINED WITH SNOWMELT MAY RESULT 
 IN EXCESSIVE RUNOFF. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION 
 LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF 
 MONDAY. UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE. 

* EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM RAIN AND SNOWMELT MAY RESULT IN MINOR 
 FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT 
 THROUGH MONDAY. SIGNIFICANT RISES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE 
 MAIN STEM OF THE BLACK RIVER...ALTHOUGH THIS IS A SLOW 
 RESPONDING RIVER WITH THE HIGHEST WATER LEVELS NOT OCCURRING 
 UNTIL SEVERAL DAYS AFTER THE HEAVY RAIN ENDS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES

&&

$$

TMA

566 
WGUS61 KBUF 240832
FFABUF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
332 AM EST SUN JAN 24 2010

...RAIN AND SNOWMELT MAY PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTH COUNTRY...

.A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING ACROSS THE MID SECTION
OF THE NATION WILL LIFT INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL DELIVER AMPLE MOISTURE AND UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF MONDAY.

THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK...
WITH THE WESTERN EDGE OF HEAVIER RAINFALL POSSIBLY IMPACTING
LEWIS COUNTY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR A BIT MORE ARE POSSIBLE.
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RESULT IN INCREASED SNOWMELT LATER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM RAIN AND SNOWMELT MAY RESULT IN MINOR
FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. SIGNIFICANT
RISES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE MAIN STEM OF THE BLACK RIVER...
ALTHOUGH THIS IS A SLOW RESPONDING RIVER SO THE HIGHER WATER
LEVELS WOULD NOT OCCUR UNTIL SEVERAL DAYS AFTER THE RAINFALL
ENDS.

NYZ008-241645-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.100125T0200Z-100126T0000Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...LOWVILLE
332 AM EST SUN JAN 24 2010

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF CENTRAL NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
 COUNTY...LEWIS.

* FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING

* MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL COMBINED WITH SNOWMELT MAY RESULT IN
  EXCESSIVE RUNOFF. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
  EARLY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
  MONDAY. ONE TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES OF INCH OF RAIN IS
  POSSIBLE.

* EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM RAIN AND SNOWMELT MAY RESULT IN MINOR 
  FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT 
  THROUGH MONDAY. SIGNIFICANT RISES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE 
  MAIN STEM OF THE BLACK RIVER...ALTHOUGH THIS IS A SLOW 
  RESPONDING RIVER WITH THE HIGHEST WATER LEVELS NOT OCCURRING 
  UNTIL SEVERAL DAYS AFTER THE HEAVY RAIN ENDS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES

&&

$$

SFM

144 
WGUS61 KBUF 241502
FFABUF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1002 AM EST SUN JAN 24 2010

...RAIN AND SNOWMELT MAY PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTH COUNTRY...

.A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING ACROSS THE MID SECTION
OF THE NATION WILL LIFT INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL DELIVER AMPLE MOISTURE AND UNSEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF MONDAY.

THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK...
WITH THE WESTERN EDGE OF HEAVIER RAINFALL POSSIBLY IMPACTING
LEWIS COUNTY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR A BIT MORE ARE
POSSIBLE. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RESULT IN INCREASED
SNOWMELT LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM RAIN AND SNOWMELT MAY RESULT IN MINOR
FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. SIGNIFICANT
RISES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE MAIN STEM OF THE BLACK RIVER...
ALTHOUGH THIS IS A SLOW RESPONDING RIVER SO THE HIGHER WATER
LEVELS WOULD NOT OCCUR UNTIL SEVERAL DAYS AFTER THE RAINFALL
ENDS.

NYZ008-242315-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.100125T0200Z-100126T0000Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...LOWVILLE
1002 AM EST SUN JAN 24 2010

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM EST THIS EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF CENTRAL NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
 COUNTY...LEWIS.

* FROM 9 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING

* MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL COMBINED WITH SNOWMELT MAY RESULT 
  IN EXCESSIVE RUNOFF. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION 
  EARLY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF 
  MONDAY. ONE TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES OF INCH OF RAIN IS 
  POSSIBLE. 

* EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM RAIN AND SNOWMELT MAY RESULT IN MINOR 
  FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT 
  THROUGH MONDAY. SIGNIFICANT RISES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE 
  MAIN STEM OF THE BLACK RIVER...ALTHOUGH THIS IS A SLOW 
  RESPONDING RIVER WITH THE HIGHEST WATER LEVELS NOT OCCURRING 
  UNTIL SEVERAL DAYS AFTER THE HEAVY RAIN ENDS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES

&&

$$

HITCHCOCK

135 
WGUS61 KBUF 242018
FFABUF

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
318 PM EST SUN JAN 24 2010

...RAIN AND SNOW MELT MAY PRODUCE FLOODING ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK...

.A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DRAG A
FRONT TOWARDS THE WESTERN NEW YORK THIS EVENING. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...SLOWING THE
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
EASTWARD...BRINGING A SOAKING RAIN TO THE REGION. MEANWHILE...
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE IN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF RUNOFF FROM THE RAIN AND SNOW MELT WILL
CAUSE MANY CREEKS AND RIVERS TO RISE NEAR OR ABOVE BANKFULL. 

WHILE IT IS TOO EARLY TO PIN DOWN EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE FLOODING
WILL OCCUR...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING IN THE WATCH
AREA. AT THIS TIME...FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE
MINOR...THOUGH ISOLATED MORE SIGNIFICANT ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE. 

NYZ005>007-250500-
/O.EXB.KBUF.FA.A.0001.100125T0600Z-100126T0600Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FAIR HAVEN...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN
318 PM EST SUN JAN 24 2010

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM EST MONDAY THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS EXPANDED THE

* FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE A PORTION OF CENTRAL NEW YORK...
 INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...JEFFERSON...NORTHERN CAYUGA 
 AND OSWEGO.

* FROM 1 AM EST MONDAY THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT

* MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL COMBINED WITH SNOW MELT MAY RESULT IN
  EXCESSIVE RUNOFF. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS
  EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY. ONE TO
  ONE AND A HALF INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE.

* EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM RAIN AND SNOW MELT MAY RESULT IN MINOR
  FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS LATE TONIGHT
  AND MONDAY. SIGNIFICANT RISES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE MAINSTEM
  OF THE BLACK RIVER...ALTHOUGH THIS IS A SLOW RESPONDING RIVER
  WITH THE HIGHEST WATER LEVELS NOT OCCURRING UNTIL SEVERAL DAYS
  AFTER THE HEAVY RAIN ENDS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES

&&

$$

NYZ001>004-010>014-019>021-085-250500-
/O.EXA.KBUF.FA.A.0001.100125T0200Z-100126T0000Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-
LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER...
NEWARK...BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA...
JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
318 PM EST SUN JAN 24 2010

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS EXPANDED THE

* FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...
 INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...ALLEGANY...CATTARAUGUS...
 CHAUTAUQUA...GENESEE...LIVINGSTON...MONROE...NIAGARA...
 NORTHERN ERIE...ONTARIO...ORLEANS...SOUTHERN ERIE...WAYNE AND 
 WYOMING.

* FROM 9 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING

* MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL COMBINED WITH SNOW MELT MAY RESULT IN
  EXCESSIVE RUNOFF. RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
  MONDAY MORNING. ONE TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES OF INCH OF RAIN IS
  POSSIBLE. 

* EXPECT THE COMBINATION OF RUNOFF AND SNOW MELT TO CAUSE THE
  FASTER RESPONDING CREEKS TO RISE TONIGHT SHORTLY AFTER THE
  HEAVIEST RAINFALL. MANY OF THE CREEKS IN THE BUFFALO REGION WILL
  APPROACH BANKFULL BY MONDAY MORNING...POTENTIALLY IMPACTED THE
  MORNING COMMUTE. ALSO EXPECT PONDING OF WATER ON AREA
  ROADWAYS...AND SMALL STREAMS TO RUN HIGH AS WELL.

* RIVERS WILL RESPOND A BIT MORE SLOWLY...WITH POTENTIAL IMPACT
  FROM THESE DURING THE DAY MONDAY OR MONDAY EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES

&&

$$

NYZ008-250500-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FA.A.0001.100125T0600Z-100126T0600Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...LOWVILLE
318 PM EST SUN JAN 24 2010

...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM EST MONDAY THROUGH LATE
MONDAY NIGHT...

THE FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR

* A PORTION OF CENTRAL NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREA...
 LEWIS.

* FROM 1 AM EST MONDAY THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT

* MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL COMBINED WITH SNOW MELT MAY RESULT IN
  EXCESSIVE RUNOFF. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS
  EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. ONE TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES
  OF INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE.

* EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM RAIN AND SNOW MELT MAY RESULT IN MINOR
  FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS TONIGHT THROUGH
  MONDAY. SIGNIFICANT RISES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE MAIN STEM
  OF THE BLACK RIVER...ALTHOUGH THIS IS A SLOW RESPONDING RIVER
  WITH THE HIGHEST WATER LEVELS NOT OCCURRING UNTIL SEVERAL DAYS
  AFTER THE HEAVY RAIN ENDS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES

&&

$$

APFFEL

580 
WGUS61 KBUF 250317
FFABUF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1017 PM EST SUN JAN 24 2010

...RAIN AND SNOW MELT MAY PRODUCE FLOODING ACROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK...

.STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
TOWARDS THE WESTERN NEW YORK OVERNIGHT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...SLOWING THE PROGRESSION OF THE
FRONT. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH
AND EASTWARD...BRINGING A SOAKING RAIN TO THE REGION. AT THE SAME
TIME...UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE IN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF RUNOFF FROM THE RAIN AND SNOW MELT WILL
CAUSE MANY CREEKS AND RIVERS TO RISE NEAR OR ABOVE BANKFULL.

WHILE IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO PIN DOWN EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE
FLOODING WILL OCCUR...THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING CONTINUES WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA. AT THIS TIME...FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE
MINOR...THOUGH ISOLATED MORE SIGNIFICANT ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE.

NYZ001>004-010>014-019>021-085-251100-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-100126T0000Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-
LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER...
NEWARK...BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA...
JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
1017 PM EST SUN JAN 24 2010

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  COUNTIES...ALLEGANY...CATTARAUGUS...CHAUTAUQUA...GENESEE...
  LIVINGSTON...MONROE...NIAGARA...NORTHERN ERIE...ONTARIO...
  ORLEANS...SOUTHERN ERIE...WAYNE AND WYOMING.

* THROUGH MONDAY EVENING

* 
* EXPECT THE COMBINATION OF RUNOFF AND SNOW MELT TO CAUSE THE
  FASTER RESPONDING CREEKS TO RISE TONIGHT SHORTLY AFTER THE
  HEAVIEST RAINFALL. MANY OF THE CREEKS IN THE BUFFALO REGION WILL
  APPROACH BANKFULL BY MONDAY MORNING. ALSO EXPECT PONDING OF
  WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS...AND SMALL STREAMS TO RUN HIGH AS WELL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES

&&

$$

NYZ005>008-251100-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.100125T0600Z-100126T0600Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FAIR HAVEN...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...
LOWVILLE
1017 PM EST SUN JAN 24 2010

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF CENTRAL NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  COUNTIES...JEFFERSON...LEWIS...NORTHERN CAYUGA AND OSWEGO.

* THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT

* MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL COMBINED WITH SNOW MELT MAY RESULT IN
  EXCESSIVE RUNOFF. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND
  MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE TAPERING OFF MONDAY AFTERNOON. A TOTAL OF
  ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE.

* EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM RAIN AND SNOW MELT MAY RESULT IN MINOR
  FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS LATE TONIGHT
  AND MONDAY. SIGNIFICANT RISES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE
  MAINSTEM OF THE BLACK RIVER...ALTHOUGH THIS IS A SLOW RESPONDING
  RIVER WITH THE HIGHEST WATER LEVELS USUALLY NOT OCCURRING UNTIL
  SEVERAL DAYS AFTER THE HEAVY RAIN ENDS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES

&&

$$

JJR

444 
WGUS61 KBUF 250816
FFABUF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
316 AM EST MON JAN 25 2010

...RAIN AND SNOW MELT MAY PRODUCE FLOODING ACROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK...

.LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
INTO EASTERN NEW YORK WITH SOAKING RAIN GRADUALLY ENDING FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE DAY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES WILL
BE COMMON BY THE TIME THE RAIN ENDS...AND THIS WILL COMBINE WITH
RUNOFF FROM SNOWMELT TO CAUSE MANY CREEKS AND RIVERS TO RISE NEAR
OR ABOVE BANKFULL. PONDING ON AREA ROADWAYS WILL ALSO BE
COMMON...ESPECIALLY FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.


NYZ001>004-010>014-019>021-085-251630-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-100126T0000Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-
LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER...
NEWARK...BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA...
JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
316 AM EST MON JAN 25 2010

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
 COUNTIES...ALLEGANY...CATTARAUGUS...CHAUTAUQUA...GENESEE...
 LIVINGSTON...MONROE...NIAGARA...NORTHERN ERIE...ONTARIO...
 ORLEANS...SOUTHERN ERIE...WAYNE AND WYOMING.

* THROUGH THIS EVENING

* STEADY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL SLOWLY END FROM WEST TO EAST
  THIS MORNING...BUT NOT AFTER RAINFALL TOTALS OF ONE TO TWO
  INCHES. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH SNOWMELT RUNOFF TO CAUSE THE
  FASTER RESPONDING CREEKS TO RISE TO NEAR BANKFUL TODAY...AND A
  FEW MAY REACH FLOOD STAGE. ALSO EXPECT PONDING OF WATER ON AREA
  ROADWAYS...AND SMALL STREAMS TO RUN HIGH AS WELL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&

$$

NYZ005>008-251630-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-100126T0600Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FAIR HAVEN...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...
LOWVILLE
316 AM EST MON JAN 25 2010

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF CENTRAL NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
 COUNTIES...JEFFERSON...LEWIS...NORTHERN CAYUGA AND OSWEGO.

* THROUGH LATE TONIGHT

* MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL COMBINED WITH SNOW MELT MAY RESULT IN
  EXCESSIVE RUNOFF. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AND TAPER
  OFF THIS AFTERNOON...BUT TOTALS WILL REACH ONE TO TWO INCHES. 

* EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM RAIN AND SNOW MELT MAY RESULT IN MINOR
  FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS TODAY. SIGNIFICANT
  RISES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE MAINSTEM OF THE BLACK
  RIVER...ALTHOUGH THIS IS A SLOW RESPONDING RIVER WITH THE
  HIGHEST WATER LEVELS USUALLY NOT OCCURRING UNTIL SEVERAL DAYS
  AFTER THE HEAVY RAIN ENDS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&

$$

SFM

081 
WGUS61 KBUF 251513
FFABUF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1013 AM EST MON JAN 25 2010

...POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK...

.A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSING WESTERN NEW YORK THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE IT SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION. RAIN HAS ALREADY TAPERED
OFF TO SHOWERS IN WESTERN NEW YORK...WITH STEADY RAIN EXPECTED TO
TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS LATE AFTERNOON IN EASTERN SECTIONS. 

IN WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE...GENERALLY ONE TO TWO INCHES OF
RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THIS EVENT. WHILE PRECIPITATION HAS TAPERED OFF TO
SHOWERS...MANY RIVERS AND CREEKS ARE STILL RISING...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING TO OCCUR. 

SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS STILL EXPECTED EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. RISES IN CREEKS AND STREAMS CAN BE
EXPECTED. THE BLACK RIVER WILL BE MONITORED...THOUGH GIVEN ITS
SLOWER RESPONSE TIME IT WILL NOT CREST UNTIL LATER.


NYZ001>004-010>014-019>021-085-260000-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-100126T0000Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-
LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER...
NEWARK...BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA...
JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
1013 AM EST MON JAN 25 2010

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
 COUNTIES...ALLEGANY...CATTARAUGUS...CHAUTAUQUA...GENESEE...
 LIVINGSTON...MONROE...NIAGARA...NORTHERN ERIE...ONTARIO...
 ORLEANS...SOUTHERN ERIE...WAYNE AND WYOMING.

* UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING

* STEADY RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
  STATE...WITH MOST LOCATIONS RECEIVING BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES
  OF RAIN. WHILE THE RAIN HAS ENDED...SOME SLOWER RESPONDING
  CREEKS AND RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE TODAY. ADDITIONAL FLOOD
  WARNINGS ARE POSSIBLE.

* WATER WILL CONTINUE TO POND ON AREA ROADWAYS TODAY...HINDERING
  TRAVEL. REFER TO FLOOD STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS FOR THE LATEST ON
  INFORMATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&

$$

NYZ005>008-260000-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-100126T0600Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FAIR HAVEN...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...
LOWVILLE
1013 AM EST MON JAN 25 2010

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF CENTRAL NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
 COUNTIES...JEFFERSON...LEWIS...NORTHERN CAYUGA AND OSWEGO.

* THROUGH LATE TONIGHT

* MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL COMBINED WITH SNOW MELT MAY RESULT 
 IN EXCESSIVE RUNOFF. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AND 
 TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON...BUT TOTALS WILL REACH ONE TO TWO 
 INCHES. 

*EXPECT RAIN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AREA CREEKS AND
 RIVERS WILL RISE TODAY...MANY APPROACHING BANK FULL. SIGNIFICANT
 RISES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE MAINSTEM OF THE BLACK
 RIVER...ALTHOUGH THIS IS A SLOW RESPONDING RIVER WITH THE HIGHEST
 WATER LEVELS USUALLY NOT OCCURRING UNTIL SEVERAL DAYS AFTER THE
 HEAVY RAIN ENDS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&

$$

APFFEL

164 
WGUS61 KBUF 251947
FFABUF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
247 PM EST MON JAN 25 2010


NYZ005>008-252100-
/O.CAN.KBUF.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-100126T0600Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FAIR HAVEN...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...
LOWVILLE
247 PM EST MON JAN 25 2010

...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELED...

THE FLOOD WATCH FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK HAS BEEN
CANCELED. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ALONG WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT IN SOME LOCATIONS CAUSED MINOR FLOODING ALONG
SOME ROADWAYS ALONG WITH SOME BASEMENT FLOODING. MORE LOCALIZED
RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES HOWEVER. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FLOOD
WARNING STATEMENTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR THE
LATEST INFORMATION.

$$

NYZ001>004-010>014-019>021-085-252100-
/O.CAN.KBUF.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-100126T0000Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-
LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER...
NEWARK...BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA...
JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
247 PM EST MON JAN 25 2010

...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELED...

THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION HAS BEEN
CANCELED. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ALONG WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT IN SOME LOCATIONS CAUSED MINOR FLOODING ALONG
SOME ROADWAYS ALONG WITH SOME BASEMENT FLOODING.

$$

ZAFF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1253 PM EST SAT JAN 23 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE
SOUTH TODAY...THEN DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SUNDAY.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM
WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY ACCOMPANIED BY WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK BELOW AVERAGE BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1000 AM UPDATE...VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS
THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR CLOUDS ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO...AND IN THE
FINGER LAKES REGION. CLOUDS ARE RESULTING FROM LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT ACROSS THE LAKE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS...LINGERING A BIT LONGER ON THE LAKE.
OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE SUNNY...UNTIL HIGH CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM
THE SOUTHWEST MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER LATE AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE
OF UPDATING THE CLOUD WORDING...ONLY VERY MINOR CHANGES MADE ON
THE UPDATE. DID NOTE THE 12Z BUF SOUNDING FORECAST A MAX OF 42...A
TAD HIGHER THAN THE GOING FORECAST. DID TWEAK UP GRIDS A DEGREE OR
TWO...WHICH HAS MINIMAL IMPACT ON ZFP WORDING.

850 MB TEMPS RISE TO ZERO OR SO IN WEST BUT AN EASTERLY SFC FLOW
WILL HOLD SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN CHECK...MOSTLY U30S WITH A FEW
L40S IN VALLEYS OF SRN TIER...BUT THIS IS STILL A GOOD 5-10 DEG
ABOVE NORMAL IN THIS COLDEST PERIOD OF THE YEAR. ALL IN ALL...A
BEAUTIFUL DAY FOR LATE JANUARY.

SKIES WILL REMAIN FAIR INTO TONIGHT WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUD AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. TEMPS WILL DROP THIS EVENING BUT THEN
BEGIN RISING IN WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A S-SE DOWNSLOPE WIND BEGINS.
WILL SHOW THESE TRENDS IN THE GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC WHILE AN
INTENSIFYING LOW HEADS NORTH TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL TRANSPORT INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO OUR CWA...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON WHEN A 50 TO
60 KNOT LEVEL JET TRACKS EAST ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. ADDITIONAL
LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL BE AVAILABLE IN THE LFQ OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK THAT IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
GIVEN THE QUALITY OF FORCING AND INCREASING MOISTURE...WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE WEST TO EAST TRANSITION TO CATEGORICAL POPS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BECAUSE THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL LIKELY HOLD
OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON...SOME LIMITED SUNSHINE IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY.

TEMPERATURE WISE...THE INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST DOWNSLOPE FLOW
COMBINED WITH 850MB TEMPS SOARING TO ABOUT +8C SHOULD RESULT IN
HIGHS BREAKING INTO THE LOWER 50S IN DOWNSLOPE AREAS WITH MID 40S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. WILL CONTINUE TO GO
ABOVE MODEL GUIDANCE TEMPS BASED ON PATTERN RECOGNITION. THE WARMEST
TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO GET CUT OFF BEFORE MAKING IT INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY...BUT STILL EXPECT LOW TO MID 40S THERE BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL STALL NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
WHILE THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK
AND THE GENESEE VALLEY. STEADY RAIN WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT...BUT THE HEAVIEST PCPN IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT
EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND AS THE POTENT LOW LEVEL JET SLIDES
EAST ACROSS THIS AREA. SEE THE HYDRO DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
ANTICIPATED RAINFALL TOTALS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA MONDAY MORNING
BEFORE SETTLING OVER NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT
PERIODS OF STEADY RAIN TO LINGER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE
MORNING...BUT A WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT FOLLOWING THE DEPARTING COLD
FRONT MAY RESULT IN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FARTHER TO THE WEST.
STILL EXPECT FAIRLY MILD TEMPERATURES MONDAY MORNING WITH READINGS
HOVERING IN THE LOWER 40S. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT (850MB
TEMPS COOLING TO ABOUT -8C IN THE WEST) WILL CAUSE THEN TEMPERATURES
TO FALL INTO THE 30S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE COLDER AIR WILL DEEPEN MONDAY NIGHT AND THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE. THIS ALLOW SNOW SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS
THE NIGHT WEARS ON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLDER AIR WILL GRADUALLY FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION ONCE AGAIN WITH A RIDGE BUILDING ALONG
THE WEST COAST. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ON TUESDAY A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE LOWER
LAKES WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS. LATEST 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS MOVED
UP THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AND WOULD SUGGEST THE MOST LIKELY TIME
FRAME FOR SNOW SHOWERS WOULD BE FROM LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. FOR NOW WILL JUST KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY IN ORDER TO
MAINTAIN FORECAST CONTINUITY. BY WEDNESDAY THE COLD WILL BE FULLY
ENTRENCHED WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE -14C TO -18C RANGE
DEPENDING ON MODEL OF CHOICE. MOST OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A WESTERLY FLOW DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WHICH
MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF THE LAKES. STILL MUCH
TOO EARLY TO DIAGNOSE ANY SPECIFICS ON STRENGTH OR EXACT LOCATION
HOWEVER.

BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES. THE LATEST
12Z/22 GFS HAS BROKEN CONTINUITY AND NOW BRINGS A SOUTHERN STREAM
LOW TOWARDS THE LOWER LAKES. THIS SOLUTION HAS ABSOLUTELY NO SUPPORT
FROM OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE OR THE 00Z/22 GEFS ENSEMBLE SUITE WITH ALL
THE OTHER GUIDANCE NOT BRINGING THIS LOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST UNTIL
NEXT WEEKEND. FOR NOW WILL IGNORE THE 12Z/22 GFS AND JUST KEEP
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS IN GENERAL WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW.

TAKING A LOOK AT THE HEMISPHERIC PATTERN...THE PATTERN CHANGE HAS
BEHAVED MORE OR LESS AS EXPECTED OVER THE PAST WEEK. AN INTENSE
EASTWARD EXTENSION OF THE EAST-ASIAN JET HAS RESULTED IN MAJOR
STORMS IMPACTING THE WEST COAST. MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY AND MODEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE EAST-ASIAN JET BREAKING DOWN ALREADY OVER THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC AS THE LONGWAVE PATTERN AMPLIFIES IN THAT REGION.
THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION /AO/ HAS TRENDED BACK NEGATIVE AGAIN AFTER
BRIEFLY BECOMING NEUTRAL LAST WEEK. LATEST GEFS ENSEMBLES FORECAST
THE AO INDEX TO REMAIN NEGATIVE OVER THE NEXT FEW WEEKS...ALTHOUGH
NOT WITH THE SAME AMPLITUDE AS WE SAW IN THE SECOND HALF OF DECEMBER
AND EARLY JANUARY.

LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING A
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NOAM WITH RIDGING BUILDING
BACK ALONG THE WEST COAST FROM THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK INTO WEEK TWO
OF THE FORECAST. THERE ARE THE EXPECTED DIFFERENCES IN AMPLITUDE AND
TIMING...BUT THE GENERAL TREND SHOULD BE FOR TEMPERATURES TO RETURN
TO BELOW AVERAGE FROM THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE FIRST
WEEK IN FEBRUARY. THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH
RESPECT TO THE MAGNITUDE OF COLD HOWEVER. THE MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES...
WITH A FEW INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE AND OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS SUGGESTING
THE POSSIBILITY FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC OUTBREAK DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF FEBRUARY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BUF/IAG/ROC...NO ISSUES WITH VSBY/CIGS THROUGH MID-MORNING
SUNDAY...WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT NE WINDS TO LINGER A BIT
LONGER THIS EVENING THAN MOST GUIDANCE DUE TO THE TOPOGRAPHIC
BLOCKING OF A SE FLOW. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 35 KTS AT
2000 FT SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. THIS WILL LIKELY FALL SHORT OF LLWS
CRITERIA...BUT DOES BEAR WATCHING WITH THE 00Z BUF SOUNDING
EXPECTED TO HELP OUT IN THIS REGARD. PREFER FASTER GFS TIMING
WITH OTHER MODEL SUPPORT...LOWERING CIGS/VSBY QUICKLY TO MVFR
LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST.

JHW...GENERALLY VFR THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...THOUGH THERE IS A
CHANCE MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT UNDERNEATH A DEVELOPING
INVERSION. WINDS INCREASE TO 40 KTS AT 1500 FT AFTER
00Z...MARGINAL TO LLWS CRITERIA. LEAVE OUT FOR NOW...BUT WILL BE
CLOSE. CIGS/VSBY LOWER TO MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR WITH RAIN MOVING IN
SUNDAY MORNING. GUSTY WINDS ALSO...WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS EXPECTED
AHEAD OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT.

ART...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF FOG BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z TONIGHT...BUT WELL BELOW
CONFIDENCE THRESHOLD TO MENTION IN TAF OR TEMPO.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...IFR/MVFR WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 KTS EARLY.
MONDAY...MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EXCEPT IFR EAST OF
THE LAKES IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE TO BRISK EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TODAY WITH WAVES EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW THE CRITERIA NEEDED
FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON BOTH LAKES.

EASTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
THEN VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MUCH
COLDER AIR FOLLOWING A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT RAIN SINCE CHRISTMAS IS EXPECTED LATER SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. 00Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN PRODUCING UP TO 0.5
INCH WEST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY
EVENING AND UP TO 0.75 INCH TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LEAST
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NIAGARA FRONTIER. TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE
40S SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WILL CAUSE SUBSTANTIAL RUNOFF FROM
EXISTING SNOWPACK. CONDITIONS ARE SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR MIDWINTER
THOUGH AS THE SLOW THAW OF THE LAST WEEK HAS REDUCED THE SNOW
COVER AND WATER EQUIVALENTS TO BELOW NORMAL FOR MIDWINTER AND ICE
IN CREEKS AND RIVERS IS LIMITED. STILL...THE SITUATION WILL BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

&&

EQUIPMENT... THE BUFFALO WSR-88D RADAR IS DOWN...TECHNICIANS ARE
ADDRESSING A COMMS ISSUE. NO ESTIMATE ON ITS RETURN...HOWEVER
EVERY EFFORT WILL BE MADE TO RESTORE SERVICE AS SOON AS POSSIBLE
GIVEN THE PENDING HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TJP
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/SFM
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK/TJP
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/SFM/TJP
HYDROLOGY...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
502 AM EST SAT JAN 23 2010

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-241015-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
502 AM EST SAT JAN 23 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A COLD FRONT MOVING EAST FROM THE PLAINS STATES WILL CROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF WARMER
AND INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND A POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO
ONE HALF INCH. THE COMBINATION OF RAIN AND SNOW MELT MAY CAUSE
RIVERS AND STREAMS TO APPROACH BANKFULL ALONG WITH A LOW RISK OF
ICE JAMS ON LOCAL CREEKS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-241015-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
502 AM EST SAT JAN 23 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE
ONTARIO AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF