Tornado Warning 2, NWS Burlington, VT

997 
WWUS51 KBTV 211715
SVSBTV

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
115 PM EDT WED JUL 21 2010

NYC019-033-211730-
/O.CON.KBTV.TO.W.0002.000000T0000Z-100721T1730Z/
FRANKLIN NY-CLINTON NY-
115 PM EDT WED JUL 21 2010

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 130 PM EDT FOR WEST
CENTRAL CLINTON AND NORTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NORTHERN NEW
YORK...

AT 111 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO.  THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BANGOR...
MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...
  WHIPPLEVILLE...CHASM FALLS...OWLS HEAD...

TRAINED STORM SPOTTERS REPORTED WIND DAMAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS 
STORM IN MORIAH AND BANGOR. LARGE HAIL HAS BEEN REPORTED IN NORTH 
BANGOR. 

WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY...PLEASE REPORT HAIL...OR DAMAGING WINDS TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1 800 8 6 3 4 2 7
9...OR BY SUBMITTING A STORM REPORT AT WEATHER.GOV/BURLINGTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANS
THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY
ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU
ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE
LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO
NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT.

&&

LAT...LON 4497 7402 4468 7396 4464 7453 4491 7456
TIME...MOT...LOC 1714Z 264DEG 22KT 4480 7432

$$

MBH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1142 AM EDT WED JUL 21 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL BRING STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS...
ALONG WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND HAIL. SOME SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1138 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...CONFIDENCE CONTINUES THAT WE WILL
SEE STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE REGION.

JUST A QUICK NOTE REGARDING THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH JUST
ISSUED AND WILL BE IN EFFECT UNTIL 8PM. NO CHANGE THE THE FORECAST,
BUT REISSUED TEXT PRODUCTS TO INCLUDE WATCH HEADLINE.

SOME CONVECTION STARTING TO SHOW UP ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING CU GETTING QUITE BUBBLY AND WITH NO REAL
CAP IN PLACE TO SPEAK OF, THINGS SHOULD BE FIRING UP HERE BY 1PM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

HAVE DONE A MINOR UPDATE TO FORECAST TO ADD IN POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. ALSO A FEW TWEAKS TO WEATHER
GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.

INTIAL 12Z NAM GUIDANCE NOT SHOWING ANY MAJOR CHANGES. STILL
LOOKING LIKE A NUMBER OF THINGS ARE COMING TOGETHER TO PAVE THE
WAY FOR A SOLID SEVERE WEATHER EVENT ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION IS ALREADY SPARKING SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
ONTARIO EVEN AT THIS EARLY HOUR. ON THE BOTTOMSIDE OF THAT
SHORTWAVE WE'VE GOT A STRENGTHENING MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET THAT
WILL BE NOSING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP
INCREASE THE 0-6KM SHEAR INTO THE 40-50KT RANGE WHICH IS THE SWEET
SPOT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHING THE
LOWER TO MID 80S AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S, WE
SHOULD EASILY SEE CAPES UP AROUND 2000J/KG. THUS WE SHOULD SEE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION START TO GO HERE BY 1PM.

AFTER REVIEW OF 4KM/12KM WRF AND HRRR MODELS, THINK INITIAL
CONVECTION WILL FIRE ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE DACKS AND
MOVE INTO VERMONT AND INTENSIFY AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.
SHORTLY THERE AFTER, ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL MOVE FROM ONTARIO
INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND PROVIDE A SECOND ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO VERMONT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

WIND FIELDS SUGGEST STRONG LOW LEVEL TURNING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
THIS MAY ALLOW MORE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS TO FORM AND THUS WE CAN'T
RULE OUT A TORNADO AS WELL. LAST SPC OUTLOOK DID HIGHLIGHT THAT
AREA AS WELL FOR SLIGHLY BIGGER TORNADO RISK.

LATEST SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION INDICATES THAT THE REGION WILL BE
UPGRADED TO A MODERATE RISK AND IT'S QUITE LIKELY WE'LL HAVE
SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES IN EFFECT IN THE NEAR FUTURE. HANG ON, IT'S
GOING TO BE A BUMPY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 433 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...BEFORE DIMINISHING BY MIDNIGHT.
EXPECTING AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...AS THERE WILL BE A CLOSE SPREAD BETWEEN THE TEMPERATURE
AND THE DEW POINT IN THE 60S TONIGHT. EXPECTING MAINLY FAIR
WEATHER ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...BTV 4KM MODEL ALONG WITH THE GFS
AND NAM HINT AT SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
OVER THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN AND NORTHEAST VERMONT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT... WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
FRIDAY WILL BE A MAINLY DRY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE OVER THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION LATE IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY. HAVE GONE WITH JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 433 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...WARM FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA
ON SATURDAY...AND FINALLY CROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL FOLLOW ON SUNDAY. HAVE MENTIONED CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD. THEN HAVE A
DRY FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PORTION AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MPV IS STILL SOCKED IN WITH FG THIS
MORNING...THOUGH IT SHOULD LIFT BY ABOUT 13Z. OTHER SITES ARE ALL
VFR BY NOW. FOR THIS AFTERNOON ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS LIKELY...BUT PROBABLY NOT UNTIL AFTER 18Z WITH
CONDS REMAINING VFR THRU THE MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED THE MENTION OF
VCSH AND CB AFTER 13Z STARTING AT KMSS AND PROGRESSING EWD THRU
16Z...BUT LEFT THE EXACT TIMING OF MAIN AREA OF PRECIP OUT FOR
NOW...HOWEVER IFR CONDS ARE LIKELY IN HVY SHRA/TSRA. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE AFTER PRECIP IS THROUGH THE AREA...BY ABOUT 00Z.
THERE MAY BE SOME BR AND FG OVERNIGHT IN AREAS THAT HAVE RAIN
TODAY...THOUGH DID NOT INCLUDE IT AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...12Z THU THRU 00Z SAT...VFR
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
THURS AFTN. 00Z SAT THRU 18Z SAT...MVFR RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION... 18Z SAT THRU
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR THOUGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS UPPER TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
345 AM EDT WED JUL 21 2010

NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001>012-016>019-220745-
NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CLINTON-
SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-WESTERN CLINTON-
WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE-GRAND ISLE-
WESTERN FRANKLIN-ORLEANS-ESSEX-WESTERN CHITTENDEN-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-
WASHINGTON-WESTERN ADDISON-ORANGE-WESTERN RUTLAND-WINDSOR-
EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN RUTLAND-
345 AM EDT WED JUL 21 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK...CENTRAL
VERMONT...NORTHEAST VERMONT...NORTHWEST VERMONT AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE STRONG AND
POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

WGH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1055 AM EDT WED JUL 21 2010

NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001>012-016>019-211700-
NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CLINTON-
SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-WESTERN CLINTON-
WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE-GRAND ISLE-
WESTERN FRANKLIN-ORLEANS-ESSEX-WESTERN CHITTENDEN-LAMOILLE-
CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-WESTERN ADDISON-ORANGE-WESTERN RUTLAND-
WINDSOR-EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-
EASTERN RUTLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MASSENA...MALONE...PLATTSBURGH...
STAR LAKE...SARANAC LAKE...TUPPER LAKE...DANNEMORA...
LAKE PLACID...PORT HENRY...TICONDEROGA...OGDENSBURG...POTSDAM...
GOUVERNEUR...ALBURGH...SOUTH HERO...ST. ALBANS...NEWPORT...
ISLAND POND...BURLINGTON...JOHNSON...STOWE...ST. JOHNSBURY...
MONTPELIER...MIDDLEBURY...VERGENNES...BRADFORD...RANDOLPH...
RUTLAND...SPRINGFIELD...WHITE RIVER JUNCTION...ENOSBURG FALLS...
RICHFORD...UNDERHILL...BRISTOL...RIPTON...EAST WALLINGFORD...
KILLINGTON
1055 AM EDT WED JUL 21 2010

...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE, AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY ALL
THUNDERSTORMS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END DURING THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK, BUT MAY CONTINUE INTO THE MID-EVENING IN
VERMONT.

PERSONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY SHOULD PAY CLOSE ATTENTION FOR
RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER
WARNINGS. MOVE INDOORS AT THE FIRST SIGN OF THREATENING WEATHER.
IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER, YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

NASH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1233 PM EDT WED JUL 21 2010

NYZ026-027-029-030-087-211730-
NORTHERN FRANKLIN NY-NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE NY-
SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE NY-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN NY-
SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE NY-
1233 PM EDT WED JUL 21 2010

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT FRANKLIN AND ST. LAWRENCE
COUNTIES IN NORTHERN NEW YORK...

AT 1224 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR STOCKHOLM
CENTER IN SAINT LAWRENCE COUNTY...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR MOIRA AROUND 1245 PM...BRUSHTON AROUND 100
PM...CONSTABLE AROUND 115 PM AND BURKE CENTER AROUND 130 PM.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT.

LAT...LON 4500 7476 4499 7469 4501 7464 4499 7441
      4500 7403 4481 7401 4465 7485 4498 7489
      4499 7487 4499 7483 4501 7478

MBH