Severe Thunderstorm Warning 33, NWS Burlington, VT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
256 PM EDT WED JUL 21 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION INTO
THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE THE WEATHER QUIETS DOWN OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING GENERALLY DRY ALTHOUGH BREEZY CONDITIONS ON
THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE
REGION FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 231 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...AS EXPECTED, IT GOT BUSY PRETTY
QUICKLY HERE OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. STORMS THUS FAR HAVE TENDED
TO REMAIN MORE SUPERCELL TYPE THAN LINES OR BOWS. RADAR WAS
SHOWING SOME SIGNIFICANT ROTATION IN ONE STORM WHILE IT WAS OVER
NORTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTY. WE DID GET SOME REPORTS OF DAMAGE IN
THAT AREA, SO WE WILL PROBABLY DO A STORM SURVEY UP THERE
TOMORROW. CELLS ARE NOW COMING INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
LIKING THE JUICY AIR WE HAVE. EXPECT CELLS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE
IN INTENSITY, SO MANY MORE WARNINGS ARE ANTICIPATED.

THERE ARE STILL MORE STORMS BACK TO OUR WEST OVER ONTARIO AND THAT
MEANS WE WILL LIKELY SEE ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF STORMS, SOME BEING
SEVERE, AS WE ARE STILL ON THE UPSWING WITH REGARD TO THE DYNAMICS
AND SHEAR COMING INTO THE REGION.

WITH ALL THE WEATHER, REALLY NO BIG CHANGES IN THE FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT. MAINTAINED CHANCE OF T-STORMS THROUGH LATE EVENING THEN
IT SHOULD QUIET DOWN. EXPECT PATCHY FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 231 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...TOMORROW LOOKING FAIRLY BENIGN,
ESPECIALLY WHEN COMPARED TO TODAY. STILL A LITTLE BIT OF LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY AND WHEN COMBINED WITH NORTHWEST WINDS ALLOWING FOR
UPSLOPE FLOW, THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE DACKS AND NORTHERN GREENS. SHOULD BE PRETTY DECENT
MIXING OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND SO WE SHOULD SEE SOME WINDS GUST INTO
THE 20-25 MPH RANGE. DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE DROPPING INTO THE 50S, SO
IT WILL FEEL REFRESHINGLY DRY.

QUIET THURSDAY NIGHT. STUCK CLOSE TO MOS FOR TEMPERATURES.

FRIDAY SHOULD START OUT FINE, BUT A WARM FRONT SHOULD BE
APPROACHING THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY. NOT VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
DETAILS BETWEEN NAM AND GFS. NAM IS MUCH STRONGER WITH THAT WARM
FRONT AND RESULTING PRECIP AND LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS. STUCK A
LITTLE CLOSER TO THE GFS. TEMPERATURES MAY BE A BIT TRICKY, AND
WENT CLOSER TO WARMER GFS (LOW-MID 70S), AS IT WILL BE DEPENDENT
UPON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION THAT BREAKS OUT.

FRIDAY NIGHT, JUST BLANKETED REGION WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR A
THUNDERSTORM AS WARM FRONT MOVES BY. STUCK CLOSE TO A MELD OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 231 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LITTLE TIME TO SPEND ON THIS PART OF
THE FORECAST. PRETTY MUCH STRAIGHT GMOS POPULATION.

FROM A QUICK LOOK AT THE MODELS, THERE ARE DIFFERENCES FOR THE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TIMEFRAME, BUT BEYOND THAT THERE IS BETTER
EVIDENCE FOR A SLIGHT PATTERN CHANGE WHICH WILL BRING IN DRIER AND
SEASONABLY COOLER AIR FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

GFS SEEMS TO REALLY CRANK UP A SURFACE LOW, PERHAPS TOO MUCH. AREA
WOULD BE IN WARM SECTOR ON SATURDAY, SO POTENIALLY SOME SEVERE
WEATHER. COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH AFTER THAT SO IMPROVING WEATHER
FOR SUNDAY. THEN HIGH PRESSURE AFTER THAT FOR MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY
TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER EVENT WITH
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL TO BE SCATTERED
ACROSS FORECAST AREA THROUGH 00Z. STORMS SHOULD GENERALLY SUBSIDE
AFTER 00-02Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS. TOWARD MORNING KMPV/KSLK
FORECAST IFR TO LIFR AS FOG DEVELOPS. ALSO INTRODUCED SCT012 AT
KBTV. WITH RECENT RAINFALL AND WINDS TURNING WEST THROUGH
NORTHWEST...EXPECT STRATUS DECK TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT TOWARD
MORNING.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...18Z THU THRU 00Z SAT...VFR
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
00Z SAT THRU SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...HANSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
345 AM EDT WED JUL 21 2010

NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001>012-016>019-220745-
NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CLINTON-
SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-WESTERN CLINTON-
WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE-GRAND ISLE-
WESTERN FRANKLIN-ORLEANS-ESSEX-WESTERN CHITTENDEN-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-
WASHINGTON-WESTERN ADDISON-ORANGE-WESTERN RUTLAND-WINDSOR-
EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN RUTLAND-
345 AM EDT WED JUL 21 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK...CENTRAL
VERMONT...NORTHEAST VERMONT...NORTHWEST VERMONT AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE STRONG AND
POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

WGH

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