Tornado Warning 70, NWS Birmingham, AL

798 
WWUS54 KBMX 301006
SVSBMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
406 AM CST TUE NOV 30 2010

ALC127-133-301015-
/O.CON.KBMX.TO.W.0070.000000T0000Z-101130T1015Z/
WALKER AL-WINSTON AL-
406 AM CST TUE NOV 30 2010

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN WINSTON AND
NORTH CENTRAL WALKER COUNTIES UNTIL 415 AM CST...

AT 404 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO.  THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CURRY...OR 7 MILES NORTH OF JASPER...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  ARLEY...LAKE SHORE...FALLS CITY...HELICON...NESMITH AND WILSON
  BEND.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CALL 1-800-856-0758.

LAT...LON 3393 8710 3393 8713 3392 8714 3391 8717
      3391 8721 3391 8729 3394 8733 3397 8735
      3401 8735 3419 8711 3394 8710 3392 8708
TIME...MOT...LOC 1006Z 228DEG 42KT 3396 8721

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
319 AM CST TUE NOV 30 2010

.UPDATE...MESOSCALE UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AS OF 830Z...THE SEVERE WEATHER SETUP REMAINS IN PLACE FOR MOST OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS MORNING...AS WE ARE CONTINUING TO SEE CYCLES
FROM QLCS LINES TO DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ACROSS WESTERN ALABAMA.
SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT A SECONDARY WARM FRONT WITH
DEWPOINTS APPROACHING 70 DEGREES RUNS FROM MERIDIAN MS EASTWARD TO
DEMOPOLIS...SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE WARM
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AREAS BEHIND THE
WARM FRONT FOR MORE INDIVIDUAL SUPERCELLS TO FORM. LOOKING AT THE
SPECIAL 6Z SOUNDING...CAPE VALUES ARE LOW...BUT SHEAR VALUES
REMAIN HIGH...WITH 0-3 KM SRH VALUES OVER 500...AND 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES WELL OVER 50 KNOTS. THE LIFTING FROM THE FRONT ALONE
AND THE STRONG SHEAR WILL BE ENOUGH TO MAXIMIZE EVEN THE LOW CAPE
ENVIRONMENT THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA...AND THE
THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE STATE INTO THE MORNING
HOURS...CONTINUING TO THE EAST DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
MAIN THREATS AT THIS TIME CONTINUE TO BE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS UP
TO 70 MPH AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
STATE...WITH A HIGHER CHANCE OF TORNADOES ACROSS THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST IN THE MOST UNSTABLE REGION BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. THE
THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST FOR TRAINING SUPERCELLS TO MOVE OVER THE
SAME GENERAL LOCATIONS MORE THAN ONCE ACROSS THOSE AREAS.

ONCE THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA TODAY...WE WILL EXPECT COLDER
TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT NOTHING TOO UNSEASONABLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR HIGHS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS COMING INTO THE
PICTURE FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.

56/GOGGINS

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

IFR/MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH TOMORROW AS DEEP MOISTURE LIFTS NORTHWARD
FROM THE GULF AHEAD OF ADVANCING STRONG STORM SYSTEM. SOME
INTERMITTENT SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS THEN HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ENTER INTO WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA AND
APPROACH TCL. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH WESTERN ALABAMA
AROUND 11Z AND PUSH EAST OF MGM/TOI AROUND MID AFTERNOON. SOME 00Z
GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS LINGERING HEAVY RAINFALL NEAR TOI THROUGH
ROUGHLY 03Z.

WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AT 10 TO 12 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS OF 20 KTS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT. WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST AT 10 KTS AFTER FROPA.

NOTICE...KEET TAF WILL HAVE (AMD LTD TO VIS WIND AND WX) AMENDED
TO THE END OF THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF 2010. THE CEILOMETER
DATA WILL BE GOING THROUGH NUMEROUS TESTS AND MONITORED FOR
ACCURACY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     64  30  46  23  54 / 100  30   0   0  10
ANNISTON    64  31  46  27  54 / 100  40   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  64  30  49  30  55 / 100  20   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  67  32  53  28  57 /  80  20   0   0   0
CALERA      66  31  50  30  55 / 100  20   0   0   0
AUBURN      64  30  49  25  55 / 100  60   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  67  32  52  30  58 / 100  40   0   0   0
TROY        68  32  51  25  58 / 100  60   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

56

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1235 AM CST TUE NOV 30 2010

ALZ011>015-017>050-010245-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
1235 PM CST TUE NOV 30 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING A THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES
ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT FOR AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 59.
THE STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
IN MISSISSIPPI AND MOVE TOWARD CENTRAL ALABAMA.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WEST OF INTERSTATE
65...WITH RAIN AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. ISOLATED LOCATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE SOME MINOR FLOODING
ESPECIALLY IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 3 PM TUESDAY...
GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM DEMOPOLIS TO TUSCALOOSA TO ARLEY. THE
POTENTIAL EXIST FOR DAMAGING WINDS...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND POSSIBLY
SOME LARGE HAIL. THE THREAT WILL DIMINISH BY AROUND 3 PM AS THE FRONT
PUSHES INTO GEORGIA.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE AREAWIDE. RAIN AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ISOLATED
LOCATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE SOME MINOR FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT WILL BECOME
NECESSARY LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
217 AM CST TUE NOV 30 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0143 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 WSW MILLPORT          33.56N 88.09W
11/30/2010                   LAMAR              AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN ALONG WELCH
            ST...POSSIBLE TORNADO.

&&

GOLDEN