Tornado Warning 64, NWS Birmingham, AL

330 
WWUS54 KBMX 300602
SVSBMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1202 AM CST TUE NOV 30 2010

ALC107-300612-
/O.CAN.KBMX.TO.W.0064.000000T0000Z-101130T0630Z/
PICKENS AL-
1202 AM CST TUE NOV 30 2010

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN PICKENS COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED 
AREA.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CALL 1-800-856-0758.

LAT...LON 3367 8826 3379 8817 3376 8795 3354 8795
      3353 8798 3354 8828
TIME...MOT...LOC 0602Z 215DEG 43KT 3358 8813

$$

ALC075-300630-
/O.CON.KBMX.TO.W.0064.000000T0000Z-101130T0630Z/
LAMAR AL-
1202 AM CST TUE NOV 30 2010

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN LAMAR COUNTY
UNTIL 1230 AM CST...

AT MIDNIGHT CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO.  THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MILLPORT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  VERNON...KENNEDY...STAR...HIGHTOGY AND CODY.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CALL 1-800-856-0758.

LAT...LON 3367 8826 3379 8817 3376 8795 3354 8795
      3353 8798 3354 8828
TIME...MOT...LOC 0602Z 215DEG 43KT 3358 8813

$$

17/KLAWS

573 
WWUS54 KBMX 300610
SVSBMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1210 AM CST TUE NOV 30 2010

ALC075-300620-
/O.CAN.KBMX.TO.W.0064.000000T0000Z-101130T0630Z/
LAMAR AL-
1210 AM CST TUE NOV 30 2010

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTHERN LAMAR COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CALL 1-800-856-0758.

LAT...LON 3367 8826 3379 8817 3376 8795 3354 8795
      3353 8798 3354 8828
TIME...MOT...LOC 0610Z 215DEG 43KT 3365 8806

$$

17/KLAWS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
800 PM CST MON NOV 29 2010

.UPDATE...MESOSCALE UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT DIAGNOSIS INDICATES THAT THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
LOCATED FROM NEAR GREENWOOD MS TO JUST SOUTH OF GOLDEN
TRIANGLE...SOUTH TO NORTHERN SUMTER COUNTY...AND EAST TO SEVERAL
MILES SOUTH OF PIKE COUNTY.  THE SENTENCE WOULD SUGGEST A VERY
COMPLEX SURFACE SITUATION THAT IS NOT EASY TO FOLLOW.  JUST AS I
HAVE STRUGGLED WITH THE SURFACE ANALYSIS...SO HAVE MOST OF THE
NUMERICAL 00Z GUIDANCE RUNS...MOST OF WHICH ARE RUNNING AN HOUR OR
MORE BEHIND SCHEDULE WITH THE ACCELERATING DRYLINE/COLD FRONT TO OUR
WEST...AND EVEN THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE WARM FRONT.  NONETHELESS
OVER THE THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...PERHAPS FROM 9 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT
EXPECT TO SEE A RATHER QUIET PERIOD AND A DECELERATION ON THE
DRYLINE AS THE MAIN...STRONGER COLD FRONT BEGINS TO TAKE OVER AS THE
MAIN SOURCE OF LIFT FOR THE DURATION OF THE EVENT.

WHAT THAT MEANS FOR US IS THAT WE CAN EXPECT THE WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OR WHAT I CONSIDER THE 64F+ DEWPOINT LINE...AND VEERED
WINDS TO CONTINUE ON ITS PROGRESSION NORTHWARD...OVER EXTREME
WESTERN ALABAMA INITIALLY. THEN...A LITTLE QUICKER AS IT MARCHES
EAST TOWARDS I65 BY DAYBREAK AND I85 BY LUNCH.  THE FASTER WARM
FRONTAL TRANSITION HAS LEFT ME EVEN MORE CONFIDENT THAT THE JUICY
SET UP WILL BE FIRMLY IN PLACE BY THE TIME THE BEST FORCING AND
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ARRIVES.  CONTINUE TO FEEL AS IF THE REAL SHOW
WILL BEGIN ONCE THE UPPER DYNAMICS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE
DEVELOPING UNSTABLE AIRMASS...WHICH IS STILL A FEW HOURS AWAY.  THIS
WILL HAPPEN INITIALLY UPSTREAM IN CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...TRANSITIONING TOWARDS WESTERN ALABAMA AROUND MIDNIGHT.

I STILL MAINTAIN SOME QUESTIONS AS TO THE LEVEL OF
INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY FURTHER NORTH.  HOWEVER...KEEP IN MIND THAT
ONCE COLD POOLS ARE WELL ESTABLISHED...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH IN THE
WAY OF INSTABILITY TO KEEP THE THREAT MAINTAINED AS IT MOVES INTO A
SEEMINGLY LESS FAVORABLE AIRMASS.  ESPECIALLY FOR A QLCS THREAT AS
WE ARE EXPECTING ONCE THE COLD FRONT TRANSLATES EASTWARD.  THE SHEAR
WILL OBVIOUSLY BE IN PLACE...0 TO 1KM...0 TO 3KM...AND 0 TO 6KM ARE
ALL EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THEIR STRENGTH FOR SOME INITIAL SUPERCELLS.
HOWEVER...ONCE THE SURFACE WINDS VEER SOUTH OR EVEN SOUTHWEST THE
TRANSITION TO QLCS OR A MORE PRONOUNCED SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED.

17/KLAWS

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

IFR/MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH MIDDAY TOMORROW AS DEEP MOISTURE LIFTS
NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF AHEAD OF ADVANCING STRONG STORM SYSTEM.
SOME BREAKS IN THE WEATHER THROUGH 06Z AS INTERMITTENT SHOWERS
PASS THROUGH THE STATE. HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z WITH THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH WESTERN
ALABAMA AROUND 12Z AND PUSH EAST OF MGM/TOI AROUND MID AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM EASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS
WITH STRONG WINDS ALOFT. WIND LULLS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE
SURFACE...PARTICULARLY AROUND TCL AND EET. THESE AREAS COULD SEE
SOME WIND SHEAR VALUES IN EXCEEDANCE OF 30 KTS THROUGH THE
EVENING.

NOTICE...KEET TAF WILL HAVE (AMD LTD TO VIS WIND AND WX) AMENDED
TO THE END OF THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF 2010. THE CEILOMETER
DATA WILL BE GOING THROUGH NUMEROUS TESTS AND MONITORED FOR
ACCURACY.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
845 PM CST MON NOV 29 2010

ALZ011>015-017>050-010245-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
845 PM CST MON NOV 29 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING A THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES
ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT FOR AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 65.
THE STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
IN MISSISSIPPI AND MOVE TOWARD CENTRAL ALABAMA JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
THE MAIN THREAT WINDOW IS A BIT FASTER WITH THIS UPDATE...OR NOW
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WEST OF INTERSTATE
65...WITH RAIN AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. ISOLATED LOCATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE SOME MINOR FLOODING
ESPECIALLY IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 3 PM TUESDAY...
GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM DEMOPOLIS TO TUSCALOOSA TO ARLEY. THE
POTENTIAL EXIST FOR DAMAGING WINDS...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND POSSIBLY
SOME LARGE HAIL. THE THREAT WILL DIMINISH BY AROUND 3 PM AS THE FRONT
PUSHES INTO GEORGIA.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE AREAWIDE. RAIN AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ISOLATED
LOCATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE SOME MINOR FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT WILL BECOME
NECESSARY LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

17/KLAWS