Severe Thunderstorm Warning 97, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
648 PM CDT THU MAY 20 2010

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THIS AFTERNOON A NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED BETWEEN
FAYETTE AND MONTGOMERY.  THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE
UNSTABLE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES WITH SBCAPES PUSHING INTO THE
1000 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE. THE CUMULUS FIELD CONTINUES TO DEVELOP IN
THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA.  MEANWHILE A DYNAMIC SYSTEM IS APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WITH A SURFACE LOW AND UPPER-LEVEL JET STRUCTURE.
BANDS OF ONGOING CONVECTION ARE PUSHING INTO WESTERN ALABAMA THIS
AFTERNOON.  LOOK FOR THE WARM FRONT TO CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD.

THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS WILL BE QUITE ACTIVE AS WE WILL SEE SEVERAL
MCS DEVELOP AND SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA. TRYING TO PINPOINT THE
TIMING IN REGARDS TO THE HWO IS VERY TROUBLESOME. AS MENTIONED OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS EVERYTHING DEPENDS ON THE DEVELOPMENT IN THE
WEST IN THE MORE MOIST AIRMASS.

THIS INITIAL LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST...AS CORFIDI
VECTORS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THIS FLOW OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. BY
FRIDAY MORNING THE FLOW BECOMES MORE EASTERLY AND EVENTUALLY
SOUTHEASTERLY. THIS WILL HELP TO KICK MUCH OF THE PRECIP OUT BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM A STRONG RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE PLAINS AND
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MODELS CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY THIS RIDGE ALL
THE WAY THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THIS IS DUE TO THE DEEPENING OF THE
TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS SCENARIO TYPICALLY ALLOWS FOR AN
EASTERLY FLOW AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO WORK IN UNDERNEATH
THE RIDGE. MODELS ARE ALSO HINTING AT AN EASTERLY WAVE WORKING INTO
THE SOUTHEAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...SETTING UP A REX-BLOCK IN
THE EASTERN CONUS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. ENSEMBLES ARE FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH THIS PATTERN. THIS WOULD KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE TIME. CONFIDENCE IS GROWING ON THE EVOLUTION OF
THE PATTERN. SOME DIFFERENCES ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW IN
THE SOUTHEAST...SO WILL STICK WITH  MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES AT THE
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MARCH EASTWARD INTO
CENTRAL AL.  AIR MASS HAS STABILIZED CONSIDERABLY BEHIND THIS
MCS...BACK OVER NORTH MS...AND NOW PLAN TO ONLY INCLUDE TSRA FOR
THIS WAVE OF PRECIPITATION.  COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS
BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z DUE TO WET SOIL AND WARM...MOIST AIR MASS.

NOTICE...KEET TAF WILL HAVE (AMD LTD TO VIS WIND AND WX) AMENDED TO
THE END OF THE FORECAST UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE WHILE CEILOMETER DATA
IS BEING MONITORED FOR ACCURACY.

03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     66  82  66  90  65 /  70  60  30  20  10
ANNISTON    65  83  65  90  64 /  60  60  30  20  10
BIRMINGHAM  65  83  66  90  65 /  70  60  20  20  10
TUSCALOOSA  67  87  66  93  65 /  70  40  20  10  10
CALERA      66  85  66  91  66 /  60  50  20  20  10
AUBURN      65  85  64  89  64 /  40  50  30  20  10
MONTGOMERY  68  88  68  92  68 /  30  30  20  20  10
TROY        66  88  66  92  66 /  30  30  20  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

16/03

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
115 PM CDT THU MAY 20 2010

ALZ011>015-017>050-211745-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
115 PM CDT THU MAY 20 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THIS SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE THE OPPORTUNITY FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO CENTRAL ALABAMA IN SEVERAL WAVES.

THE INITIAL THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS
WESTERN ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON...AS SEVERAL BANDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA. THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WEST OF A CARROLLTON TO JASPER
LINE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.

AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST.
STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR...MAINLY BETWEEN 4 PM AND MIDNIGHT.  THE MAIN
THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

A SECOND WAVE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHEAST BY 5 PM
AND PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

A THIRD WAVE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AND SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. DEPENDING ON THE ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON...A FEW
STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 7 AM. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW ON THIS THIRD WAVE AND MAY NEED TO BE REVISED AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM TRIES TO
CLEAR THE AREA. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20.

OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BE NEEDED
ACROSS WESTERN ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

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