Severe Thunderstorm Warning 108, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
358 AM CDT FRI MAY 21 2010

.DISCUSSION...

WELL THE FIRST ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS ALMOST EXITED THE AREA TO
THE EAST...AND WE HAVE ONE MORE ROUND TO GO. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING TO THE WEST IN NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI...AND THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND SLIDE
EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA LATER THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. DO NOT EXPECT THIS SECOND WAVE TO BE AS SEVERE AS THE
FIRST. THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL PULL AWAY TO THE NORTH
ALONG WITH THE LOW...SO SPC HAS THEIR SLIGHT RISK EXTENDED ONLY AS
FAR SOUTH AS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE
SUFFICIENT SBCAPE AND LIFTED INDICES TO GET SOME STRONG STORMS
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. WITH THAT SAID...WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH
STRONG WORDING IN THE HWO FOR THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR AREAS
ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL
HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

THE SYSTEM FINALLY MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND RAIN CHANCES COME
TO AN END ACROSS THE CWA LATER TONIGHT. SAT THRU MON WILL BE DRY AND
HOT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE REGION. UNDERCUT
MOS HIGH TEMPS BY A COUPLE DEGREES OVER THE WEEKEND. JUST DON'T
THINK WE WILL GET INTO THE MID 90S THAT QUICK WITH THE HIGH SOIL
MOISTURE WE WILL HAVE AFTER ALL OF THE RAIN WE HAVE SEEN AND WILL
SEE LATER TODAY...SO WENT WITH LOW 90S FOR NOW. LOWS SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE 60S.

MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS THE SAME WITH RESPECT TO THE OVERALL PATTERN
NEXT WEEK. THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION SLIDES
EASTWARD AND FORCES THE UPPER LOW SOUTHWARD. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE
GFS AND EURO KEEP THE LOW JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WITH SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE TUE THRU THUR TIME FRAME AS
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

19

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MODELS REALLY CAN'T BE TRUSTED TOO MUCH IN THE NEAR TERM...SINCE
THEY HAVE FAILED TO CAPTURE ONGOING CONVECTION. THEREFORE...06Z TAFS
WILL BE BASED ON NOWCASTING THE ACTIVE BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER THAT...LACK OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION FURTHER
UPSTREAM LEADS ME TO TREND THE LATER HOURS OF THE FORECAST IN A MORE
OPTIMISTIC DIRECTION.

NOTICE...KEET TAF WILL HAVE (AMD LTD TO VIS WIND AND WX) AMENDED TO
THE END OF THE FORECAST UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE WHILE CEILOMETER DATA
IS BEING MONITORED FOR ACCURACY.

61

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     82  64  90  64  91 /  70  20  10  10  10
ANNISTON    82  64  89  63  91 /  60  20  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  83  64  91  65  91 /  60  20  10  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  86  65  91  66  93 /  50  10  10  10  10
CALERA      83  65  90  66  92 /  50  20  10  10  10
AUBURN      84  64  90  64  90 /  50  20  10  10  10
MONTGOMERY  87  67  91  67  93 /  30  20  10  10  10
TROY        88  66  92  67  93 /  30  20  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

19/61

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
845 AM CDT FRI MAY 21 2010

ALZ011>015-017>050-221600-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
845 AM CDT FRI MAY 21 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AS WELL AS
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

08

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
640 AM CDT FRI MAY 21 2010

ALZ011>013-211245-
FAYETTE-LAMAR-MARION-
640 AM CDT FRI MAY 21 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR FAYETTE...LAMAR AND MARION COUNTIES
UNTIL 745 AM CDT...

AT 636 AM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTH OF HAMILTON...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  PIKEVILLE.
  HAMILTON.
  WESTON.
  BRINN.
  SHOTSVILLE.
  HACKLEBURG.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE FROM THE THUNDERSTORM.
THIS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF RUNOFF PROBLEMS AND PONDING OF WATER ON
AREA ROADWAYS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

12/SIRMON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
813 AM CDT FRI MAY 21 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 AM     FLASH FLOOD      HALEYVILLE              34.24N 87.62W
05/21/2010                   WINSTON            AL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WATER SEVERAL INCHES DEEP OVER HIGHWAY 13 IN NORTH SIDE
            OF CITY.

0730 AM     LIGHTNING        HALEYVILLE              34.24N 87.62W
05/21/2010                   WINSTON            AL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LIGHTNING STRIKE SET FIRE TO A WAREHOUSE IN DOWNTOWN
            HALEYVILLE...BUILDING IS A TOTAL LOSS.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
851 AM CDT FRI MAY 21 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0705 AM     TSTM WND DMG     4 N HALEYVILLE          34.30N 87.62W
05/21/2010                   WINSTON            AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN AND BLOCKING WAKEFIELD ROAD IN MIDWAY
            ...JUST OFF AL HWY 13.

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
852 AM CDT FRI MAY 21 2010

ALZ012-013-211500-
FAYETTE-LAMAR-
852 AM CDT FRI MAY 21 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR FAYETTE AND LAMAR COUNTIES UNTIL
1000 AM CDT...

AT 848 AM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CALEDONIA...OR 11 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF VERNON...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  MELBORNE.
  STAR.
  HIGHTOGY.
  BLOOMING GROVE.
  BELK.
  FAYETTE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
858 AM CDT FRI MAY 21 2010

ALZ023-211500-
TUSCALOOSA-
858 AM CDT FRI MAY 21 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR TUSCALOOSA COUNTY UNTIL 1000 AM
CDT...

AT 900 AM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES WEST OF BANKHEAD LOCK AND DAM...OR 16 MILES
NORTH OF HOLT...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  WINDHAM SPRINGS.
  WILEY.
  BANKHEAD LOCK AND DAM.
  BULL CITY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.