Severe Thunderstorm Warning 52, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
638 AM CDT SAT APR 24 2010

.UPDATE...12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

..DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK EXPECTED TODAY...

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA...WITH ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING
AND LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. ALMOST ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
IS IN A MODERATE RISK TODAY...WITH A LARGE PORTION OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN LOCATIONS IN A HIGH RISK.

A SURFACE LOW WILL RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN TO OUR WEST TODAY AS IT MOVES
NORTHEAST OUT OF TEXAS TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS
WILL PUT CENTRAL ALABAMA IN A PRIME LOCATION FOR LONG LIVED
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY BY MIDDAY AS THE
AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE. IN
ADDITION...AS THE LOW STRENGTHENS...WINDS WILL BE RATHER GUSTY FROM
THE SOUTH TODAY AND A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE NECESSARY FOR ALL
COUNTIES BEGINNING AT 9 AM.

A MESOSCALE DISCUSSION WITH DETAILS ON TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE OUT
SOON. CONTINUE TO CHECK OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND SHORT
TERM PRODUCTS /GRAPHICASTS/ FOR UPDATES THROUGH THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

CLOSED LOW WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY MONDAY AS IT
SLOWLY WEAKENS. WEAK ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW WILL
INCREASE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTH MONDAY. COULD BRING SOME LIGHT
RAIN AS WELL...BUT FOR NOW WILL NOT MENTION ANY WX. CLOSED
LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND BE ABSORBED BY LONGWAVE
TROUGH. A SHORT WAVE WILL WORK ITS WAY SOUTHEASTWARD ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE TROUGH TUESDAY. WILL CARRY AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER...BUT FEATURE SHOULD NOT HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE WITH IT TO
WARRANT POPS.

RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. RIGHT NOW...THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
AFFECT THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.

SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S. NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS RETURN FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK.

14

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THE FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS ALREADY MOVED
THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING.  SOME STORMS ARE LINGERING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...BUT ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOULD AFFECT ALL TAF SITES
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. CIGS ARE HOVERING BETWEEN MVFR AND
IFR AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH LATE
MORNING...WITH MVFR CIGS PREVAILING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS BEGINNING TO TAKE
SHAPE ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL PUSH EASTWARD
DURING THE DAY...AND WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY MID
AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE.

SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTS REACHING UPWARDS OF 25
KNOTS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AND BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY ONCE THE COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT.

NOTICE...KEET TAF WILL HAVE (AMD LTD TO VIS WIND AND WX) AMENDED TO
THE END OF THE FORECAST UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE WHILE CEILOMETER DATA
IS BEING MONITORED FOR ACCURACY.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     73  58  76  55  70 / 100  90  10  10  10
ANNISTON    74  62  79  57  73 / 100  90  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  75  59  79  57  73 / 100  80  10  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  77  60  80  55  75 / 100  60  10  10  10
CALERA      75  62  79  57  74 / 100  80  10  10  10
AUBURN      74  60  78  55  72 / 100  80  20  10  10
MONTGOMERY  79  63  81  57  77 / 100  80  10  10  10
TROY        78  63  81  55  77 / 100  80  20  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: AUTAUGA...BARBOUR...BIBB...BLOUNT...
BULLOCK...CALHOUN...CHAMBERS...CHEROKEE...CHILTON...CLAY...
CLEBURNE...COOSA...DALLAS...ELMORE...ETOWAH...FAYETTE...GREENE...
HALE...JEFFERSON...LAMAR...LEE...LOWNDES...MACON...MARENGO...
MARION...MONTGOMERY...PERRY...PICKENS...PIKE...RANDOLPH...
RUSSELL...SHELBY...ST. CLAIR...SUMTER...TALLADEGA...TALLAPOOSA...
TUSCALOOSA...WALKER...WINSTON.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
631 AM CDT SAT APR 24 2010

ALZ011>015-017>050-251200-
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-
CHEROKEE-CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-
TALLADEGA-CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-
COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-
MONTGOMERY-MACON-BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
631 AM CDT SAT APR 24 2010

...HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES TODAY AND
TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...INCLUDING TORNADOES...DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL...AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING. ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE  MORNING HOURS...THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
WILL INCREASE BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS SHOULD ENTER THE SOUTHWEST BY
12PM...NEAR THE INTERSTATE 65 CORRIDOR BY 2PM...AND FAR EASTERN
LOCATIONS BY 4 PM. THIS THREAT WILL END AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA...ENDING THE STORM THREAT AROUND 2AM IN THE WEST AND 6AM IN THE
EAST.

THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A MAJOR TORNADO OUTBREAK WITH
LONG-TRACK TORNADOES ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. ALL INTERESTS
ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST CONCERNING THIS
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER SYSTEM.

BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY...WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 17 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. A WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA BEGINNING AT 9AM
THIS MORNING THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT WILL BE
NECESSARY TODAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
403 AM CDT SAT APR 24 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0308 AM     HAIL             ODENVILLE               33.69N 86.40W
04/24/2010  M0.88 INCH       ST. CLAIR          AL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

KLAWS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
521 AM CDT SAT APR 24 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0444 AM     HAIL             BARTLETTS FERRY DAM     32.66N 85.09W
04/24/2010  E0.88 INCH       LEE                AL   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

KLAWS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
639 AM CDT SAT APR 24 2010

ALZ017-024-241230-
BLOUNT-JEFFERSON-
639 AM CDT SAT APR 24 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR BLOUNT AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES UNTIL
730 AM CDT...

AT 636 AM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR WARRIOR...OR 9 MILES NORTH OF GARDENDALE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  WARRIOR.
  TRAFFORD.
  DALLAS.
  LOCUST FORK.
  FAIRVIEW.
  ALLGOOD.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
713 AM CDT SAT APR 24 2010

ALZ012-013-022-241300-
FAYETTE-LAMAR-PICKENS-
713 AM CDT SAT APR 24 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR FAYETTE...LAMAR AND PICKENS COUNTIES
UNTIL 800 AM CDT...

AT 707 AM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NEW HOPE...OR 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF
PICKENSVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 30 MPH...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  ETHELSVILLE.
  FOREST.
  SHAW.
  MILLPORT.
  BELK.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

14

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
735 AM CDT SAT APR 24 2010

ALZ022-030-031-241315-
GREENE-PICKENS-SUMTER-
735 AM CDT SAT APR 24 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR GREENE...PICKENS AND SUMTER COUNTIES
UNTIL 815 AM CDT...

AT 730 AM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 14 MILES NORTHWEST OF EMELLE...OR 25 MILES NORTHWEST OF
LIVINGSTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 30 MPH...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  GEIGER.
  PANOLA.
  WARSAW.
  ALICEVILLE.
  LEWISTON.
  BENEVOLA.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

14

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