Severe Thunderstorm Warning 45, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1150 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2010

..DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...

.UPDATE...OVERNIGHT FORECAST AND AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THESE
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE TONIGHT...JUST PLENTY OF
LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

TWEAKED THE FORECAST MAINLY TO ADJUST OVERNIGHT LOWS BY A FEW
DEGREES. NOT EXPECTING FOR ANY OF THE SEVERE CONVECTION TO OCCUR
UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING.

UPDATED FORECAST HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED.

10/ARM

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ON AND OFF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT MOST OF THE TAF
SITES THE REST OF TONIGHT. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
RAPIDLY SATURDAY MORNING AND BECOME EVEN MORE NUMEROUS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

IN ADDITION TO THESE STORMS...IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EARLY EVENING. CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE MUCH DURING THE DAY TOMORROW OTHER THAN SOME BRIEF
PERIODS OF SUNSHINE WHICH WOULD LEAD TO MORE THUNDERSTORMS.

CONDITIONS MAY RETURN TO VFR AFTER 06Z TOMORROW WHICH IS OUT OF
THE SCOPE OF THIS FORECAST.

10/ARM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 722 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2010/

UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

DISCUSSION...

I WISH I HAD BETTER NEWS...IN THE WAY THAT THINGS DON'T LOOK SO
PERILOUS FOR SATURDAY...BUT I DON'T.  IN FACT...THE 12Z GFS HAS
INCREASED FORECAST CONFIDENCE EVEN MORE SO...SO LET'S RUN THINGS
DOWN.

THE BIG PICTURE RIGHT NOW HAS THIS WELL ADVERTISED UPPER LEVEL LOW
CONTINUING TO DIG AND DEEPEN OUT OVER THE CENTER PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY. A STRONG SFC LOW OVER WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON IS THE
CULPRIT IN CREATING THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND THE TORNADO
WATCH...JUST TO OUR EAST.  THIS EVENING...THESE STORMS THAT WE ARE
WATCHING ARE LIKELY TO SLIDE INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AND COULD
CARRY WITH THEM THE TYPICAL SEVERE WEATHER...STRONG WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL.  THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THESE STORMS SHOULD OUTRUN THE DYNAMICS
THAT WOULD ALLOW THEM TO MAINTAIN THEIR SEVERITY THIS EVENING.
SO...THEY SHOULD BE DYING DOWN AFTER SUNSET...WITH THE POTENTIAL
THAT SOME OF THEM COULD BE STRONG...45 MPH WINDS AND SMALL HAIL...
THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...WE SHOULD SEE A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY UNTIL
SUNRISE.  THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS BUT AS I SAID...THE
DYNAMICS SHOULD SUBSIDE...FOR A SHORT TIME.  BY SUNRISE THOUGH...
THINGS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN.  THE INITIAL SFC LOW AND
ASSOCIATED PRIMARY WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...
LIKELY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...WHICH MEANS DEW POINTS ALREADY IN THE
LOW TO MIDDLE 60S.  A SECONDARY LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY
MORNING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND WITH IT...DRIVE
ANOTHER WARM FRONT NORTHWARD...BRINGING MORE MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL
ALABAMA.  ITS LIKELY THAT PORTIONS OF OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WILL
SEE DEW POINTS AROUND 70 BY 9 AM SATURDAY MORNING.  THIS MEANS
PLENTY OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH.  THE OTHER THING
THAT WILL COME ALONG WITH THIS SECONDARY LOW IS A VERY POTENT LOW
LEVEL JET...ON THE ORDER OF 50-65 KTS.  THIS WILL BE ENTERING THE
WEST SIDE OF THE STATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW...AND WILL
LIKELY BE THE MAIN THING THAT BEGINS CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY THAT
EARLY IN THE MORNING.  THIS THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER...WHICH
INCLUDES LONG TRACK TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FLOODING...WILL TRANSLATE TOWARDS THE INTERSTATE 65 CORRIDOR
BY LATE MORNING AND THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL ALABAMA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.  THIS MEANS THAT ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL CARRY THIS
THREAT OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS THROUGH MINIMALLY 10 PM TOMORROW
EVENING.  IT'S LIKELY THAT EXTREME EASTERN COUNTIES IN CENTRAL
ALABAMA COULD SEE THIS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THROUGH THE MIDNIGHT
HOUR.

I MENTIONED EARLIER THE 12Z GFS...OBVIOUSLY THIS IS THE MODEL THAT I
AM BASING MOST OF THE FORECAST ON...MAINLY BECAUSE THE INTENSITY OF
THE NAM IS CONSIDERABLY LOWER AND IN MY OPINION...NOT REALISTIC.
ONE OF THE THINGS THAT HAS ME CONCERNED IN THIS LATEST MODEL RUN IS
THE PLACEMENT OF A 100-110KT UPPER LEVEL JET...DIRECTLY OVER CENTRAL
ALABAMA.  THIS MEANS MORE LIFT FOR THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO WORK
WITH.  THE BOTTOM LINE...EVERYTHING IN THE MODELS IS COMING TOGETHER
TO CAUSE SATURDAY TO BE A VERY LONG DAY.

WITH MANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES PLANNED ON SATURDAY...TAKE THE TIME
THIS EVENING TO ANALYZE WHETHER OR NOT YOUR PLANS CAN BE PUT OFF
UNTIL SUNDAY.  THIS PROMISES TO BE A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.  STAY
TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OUR WEBSITE...OR YOUR FAVORITE NEW
OUTLET FOR THE LATEST ON THIS POTENTIAL MAJOR OUTBREAK.

AVIATION...00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THE FIRST BATCH OF WHAT WILL BE MANY MORE STORMS TO COME WILL PUSH
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THESE STORMS ARE MOVING
INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT AND THUS THEY ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE NIGHT. STILL EXPECTING FOR SOME OF THESE
STORMS TO EITHER AFFECT OR APPROACH ALL TAF SITES. ALTHOUGH
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE...THEY
WILL STILL LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT.

AS FOR TOMORROW...FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT ALL SITES WILL SEE SOME
SORT OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. PEAK CONVECTION SHOULD START AFTER
15Z AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WELL AFTER 00Z. IT WON'T BE A
CONSTANT THUNDERSTORM FOR 6 STRAIGHT HOURS. IT WILL BE MORE OF AN ON
AND OFF TYPE OF ACTIVITY.

10/ARM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     62  74  58  76  51 /  80 100  80  10  10
ANNISTON    62  74  62  80  52 /  80 100  90  20  10
BIRMINGHAM  63  74  59  79  52 /  80 100  70  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  66  74  60  80  52 /  70 100  50  10  10
CALERA      63  75  62  79  54 /  70 100  70  10  10
AUBURN      64  74  60  78  55 /  60 100  80  20  10
MONTGOMERY  63  77  63  83  54 /  60 100  70  20  10
TROY        62  79  63  81  52 /  60 100  60  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

07/07/07

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
814 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2010

ALZ011>015-017>050-250115-
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-
CHEROKEE-CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-
TALLADEGA-CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-
COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-
MONTGOMERY-MACON-BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
814 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2010

...MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES ON SATURDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALLER HAIL ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MIDNIGHT...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM
WHITE HALL...ALEXANDER CITY AND ROANOKE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT....ALL MODES OF SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE...INCLUDING TORNADOES...DAMAGING WIND...
LARGE HAIL...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING IN WESTERN ALABAMA...THE
GREATEST RISK APPEARS TO BE LATE SATURDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY
EVENING ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE THREAT SHOULD END BY
MIDNIGHT FOR OUR EASTERN COUNTIES.

THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A MAJOR TORNADO OUTBREAK WITH LONG-
TRACK TORNADOES ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THERE WILL BE THE
THREAT OF ANY TORNADO THAT FORMS TO BE RAIN-WRAPPED...WHICH MEANS IT
COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT TO SEE...EVEN CLOSE UP. ALL INTERESTS IN
CENTRAL ALABAMA SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST CONCERNING THIS
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER SYSTEM.

BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT SATURDAY AND
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE BETWEEN 10 AND
20 MPH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT WILL BE LIKELY
ON SATURDAY. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A TORNADO WATCH SOMETIME
SATURDAY.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
147 AM CDT SAT APR 24 2010

ALZ045-046-048-240730-
BULLOCK-MACON-RUSSELL-
147 AM CDT SAT APR 24 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR BULLOCK...MACON AND RUSSELL COUNTIES
UNTIL 230 AM CDT...

AT 143 AM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR SHOPTON...OR 12 MILES WEST OF UNION SPRINGS...
MOVING EAST AT 65 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  SIMSVILLE.
  FRANKLIN FIELD.
  FORT DAVIS.
  DAVISVILLE.
  WARRIORSTAND.
  CREEK STAND.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

17/KLAWS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
211 AM CDT SAT APR 24 2010

ALZ017-018-024-026-240800-
BLOUNT-ETOWAH-JEFFERSON-ST. CLAIR-
211 AM CDT SAT APR 24 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR BLOUNT...ETOWAH...JEFFERSON AND ST.
CLAIR COUNTIES UNTIL 300 AM CDT...

AT 208 AM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS TRACKING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM SUSAN MOORE TO PINSON...OR
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF ONEONTA TO 6 MILES
EAST OF GARDENDALE...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  PALMERDALE.
  WALNUT GROVE.
  SPRINGVILLE.
  HORSE PENS FORTY.
  HOWELTON.
  RIDGEVILLE.

THE GUSTY WINDS WILL BE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES...TREE
LIMBS...AND POWERLINES. SEEK SAFE SHELTER UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

17/KLAWS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
322 AM CDT SAT APR 24 2010

ALZ012-022-240845-
LAMAR-PICKENS-
322 AM CDT SAT APR 24 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR LAMAR AND PICKENS COUNTIES UNTIL 345
AM CDT...

AT 320 AM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR NEW HOPE...OR 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF COLUMBUS...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  FOREST.
  MELBORNE.
  MILLPORT.
  KENNEDY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

17/KLAWS