Severe Thunderstorm Warning 4, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
521 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2010

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

DECENT SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS HAVE ENTERED WESTERN ALABAMA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS WAS BEING PRODUCED BY A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVING
NORTHWARD UP THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. COUPLED WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE EAST...THERE WAS A RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. SOUTHEASTERLY WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
35 MPH RANGE JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. MORE
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR OF AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY
ACTUALLY INCREASE THESE WIND GUSTS JUST A BIT. HIGHER ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 1000 FT WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE HIGHER GUSTS. THE WIND ADVISORY
WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI STATE LINE AT 12Z...
EXTENDED TO 16Z FOR AREAS ALONG AND NEAR INTERSTATE 59...AND EXTENDED
UNTIL 20Z FOR EAST AND SOUTHEAST AREAS.

07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A RATHER COMPLEX SURFACE PATTERN. A COLD
FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR ST. LOUIS, MO TO NEAR LAKE CHARLES, LA
WITH A WARM FRONT FROM NEAR PINE BLUFF, AR TO NEAR MOB, AL. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH
SEVERAL OTHER WEAKER SURFACE TROUGHS EVIDENT. ROBUST SHORT WAVE
TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS
MISSOURI WILL ALLOW THE THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY PRESENT TO SLOW DOWN A
BIT TODAY BEFORE PUSHING EASTWARD AS ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVES MORE WEST TO EAST OVERHEAD. SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM THE SURFACE TO
5000 FT WERE TOPPING OUT AROUND 60 KTS OR SO AND THIS WILL ALLOW A
NARROW WARM SECTOR TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA. SHORT TERM
MODELS IN FAIR GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 60+ SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL
PUSH INTO THE AREA. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE NAM SOLUTION AND KEEP MUCH
THESE DEW POINTS ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA. SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED BUT MAY APPROACH THE -1 TO -2 RANGE WITH
CAPES GENERALLY 500 OR LESS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT THAT
IMPRESSIVE...EVEN WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING ALOFT. THEREFORE...WE
END UP WITH TYPICAL WINTER SCENARIO OF A LOW CAPE/HIGH SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. THE BROKEN LINE OF STORMS SHOULD GAIN SOME INTENSITY
AFTER THE SUN RISES. WILL KEEP MENTION OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE GENERALLY THE SOUTH HALF...WITH A FEW STRONG STORMS
MENTIONED FARTHER NORTH. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND
POSSIBLY SOME HAIL.

MOST AREAS WILL RECEIVE RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM. THE HIGHER RAIN
AMOUNTS WILL BE EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 WHILE A DECREASING TREND WILL
BE EXPERIENCED WEST OF INTERSTATE 65 THROUGH NOON. HELD ON TO SOME
SMALL EARLY THIS EVENING NORTHWEST AND CHANCE POPS EAST OF I-65 AS
THE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS THE SENSIBLE WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES APPEAR DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS AS A
SLUG OF COOLER AIR BRIEFLY AFFECTS THE AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP NEAR FREEZING.

THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN FLIP FLOPPING ON TIMING/PLACEMENT AND
OVERALL AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM...NOW PROGGED
DURING THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME FRAME. BUT THERE ARE SOME
SIMILARITIES. BOTH MODELS ARE ADVERTISING A MORE NORTHERN INFLUENCE
WHERE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE SHUNTED SOUTHWARD. THEREFORE...REMOVED
THE STORM STORM WORDING. BOT MODELS ARE ALSO HINTING AT SOME
BORDERLINE COLD AIR AS THE MOISTURE EXITS THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM. AT
THIS TIME...WILL LEAVE MENTION OF RAIN/SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT. BUT I DID
SPREAD OUT THE POPS AND PUT NOTHING OVER CHANCE AT THE PRESENT TIME
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. THIS WILL CERTAINLY BE A PERIOD TO WATCH.

75/LINHARES

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT ISSUANCE ARE DRAPED ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE.  THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...
GIVING EACH TAF SITE PREVAILING TSRA.  BHM/EET SHOULD BEGIN BY
12/13Z RESPECTIVELY...AND THEN ANB/MGM/TOI AROUND THE NOON HOUR CST.

THIS SHOULD BE AN IFR KIND OF DAY...WHETHER CIGS WITH THE TSRA...OR
VIS AFTER THE BULK OF THE TSRA MOVES THROUGH EACH SITE.  LIGHT RAIN
OR DRIZZLE WILL BE PREVALENT AFTER THE TSRA.  FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL
LIKELY REMAIN IFR THROUGHOUT THIS TAF PERIOD.

WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY TODAY...STARTING OUT SELY...AND THEN
SWINGING SWLY AFTER THE TSRA...AND THEN WESTERLY LATE TONIGHT AS A
SECONDARY FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE.

27

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     62  38  54  29  49 /  90  30  10   0  10
ANNISTON    64  41  55  33  51 / 100  30  10  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  65  40  54  34  53 /  90  20  10   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  66  39  57  35  54 /  50  20  10   0   0
CALERA      64  42  56  35  53 /  90  20  10   0   0
AUBURN      65  45  56  35  54 / 100  30  10  10   0
MONTGOMERY  64  44  60  35  58 / 100  30  10  10   0
TROY        67  44  60  34  58 / 100  30  10   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WIND ADVISORY
CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-CLEBURNE-TALLADEGA-CLAY-RANDOLPH-COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-CH
AMBERS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-MONTGOMERY-MACON-BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PI
KE-BARBOUR UNTIL 2 PM

WIND ADVISORY WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST.
CLAIR-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-MARENGO-DALLAS UNTIL 10 AM

WIND ADVISORY MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-PICKENS-SUMTER-GREENE
UNTIL 6 AM.

&&

75/27

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
739 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2010

ALZ011>015-017>050-251230-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
739 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY. A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM SELMA TO
CLANTON. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH...
AN ISOLATED TORNADO AND LARGE HAIL. THE THREAT WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
AROUND 4 PM. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AREA WIDE AS
SOME LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE RAIN FROM MORE THAN ONE SHOWER OR STORM.
ALL OTHER AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH WIND GUSTS UP
TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE. THE THREAT WILL DECREASE ACROSS WESTERN ALABAMA
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY.
SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE BETWEEN 10 AND 20 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS OF 35 MPH OR HIGHER OUTSIDE THE RAIN AREAS. THESE WIND GUSTS
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE WEST THIS MORNING...AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON.

MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE UPPER TOMBIGBEE RIVER AS IT
RISES TO FLOOD STAGE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 10 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE UPPER TOMBIGBEE RIVER THROUGH
MONDAY. PLEASE REVIEW THE LATEST RIVER STATEMENTS FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BECOME
NECESSARY TODAY SOUTH AND EAST.

75

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
207 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2010

ALZ024-025-240830-
JEFFERSON-SHELBY-
207 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR JEFFERSON AND SHELBY COUNTIES UNTIL
230 AM CST...

AT 206 AM CST...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR MAYLENE...OR NEAR MONTEVALLO...MOVING NORTH AT 50
MPH.

WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

THIS THUNDERSTORM COULD INTENSIFY QUICKLY...SO BE READY TO ACT IF A
WARNING IS ISSUED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

27

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
317 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2010

ALZ022-023-031-240945-
GREENE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-
317 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR GREENE...PICKENS AND TUSCALOOSA
COUNTIES UNTIL 345 AM CST...

AT 315 AM CST...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES WEST OF MANTUA...OR 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
ALICEVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 70 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  LEWISTON.
  BENEVOLA.
  PIONEER.
  ROMULUS.
  ECHOLA.
  BROWNVILLE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

27

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
453 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 AM     HAIL             7 N JASPER              33.95N 87.27W
01/24/2010  E1.00 INCH       WALKER             AL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            REPORTED ALONG HWY 5 IN THE CROSSROADS COMMUNITY. SEVERAL
            OTHER REPORTS OF AT LEAST QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND MAYBE
            LARGER REPORTED IN THE SAME VICINITY.

&&

GOLDEN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
559 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2010

ALZ030>032-039-241245-
GREENE-HALE-MARENGO-SUMTER-
559 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR GREENE...HALE...MARENGO AND SUMTER
COUNTIES UNTIL 645 AM CST...

AT 559 AM CST...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR COATOPA...OR 12 MILES EAST OF YORK...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  BELLAMY.
  DUG HILL.
  DEMOPOLIS MUNICIPAL AIRPORT.
  BELMONT.
  TISHABEE.
  FORKLAND.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

75

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
613 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2010

ALZ013-015-023-241300-
FAYETTE-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-
613 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR FAYETTE...TUSCALOOSA AND WALKER
COUNTIES UNTIL 700 AM CST...

AT 614 AM CST...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF COKER...OR 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
NORTHPORT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  ROMULUS.
  COKER.
  FLATWOODS.
  LAKE TUSCALOOSA TIERCE PATTTON BRIDGE.
  LAKE TUSCALOOSA HWY 69 BRIDGE.
  SAMANTHA.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

75