Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Birmingham, AL

477 
WGUS74 KBMX 242106
FFSBMX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
306 PM CST SUN JAN 24 2010

ALC027-029-111-242200-
/O.CON.KBMX.FF.W.0001.000000T0000Z-100124T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CLAY AL-RANDOLPH AL-CLEBURNE AL-
306 PM CST SUN JAN 24 2010

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CST FOR
CLEBURNE...RANDOLPH AND CLAY COUNTIES...

AT 301 PM CST...COUNTY OFFICIALS HAVE REPORTED FLASH FLOODING IN THE 
AREA OF WEDOWEE. OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNED ARE EXPECTED TO 
EXPERIENCE SOME ROAD FLOODING AS WELL AS OVERFLOW FROM CREEKS AND 
STREAMS. 

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO RANBURNE...
MUSCADINE...MARS HILLS...HEFLIN...FRUITHURST...EDWARDSVILLE AND
ABERNATHY

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE HALF TO ONE INCH ARE POSSIBLE 
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 400 PM. 

&&

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...
CALL 1-800-856-0758.

LAT...LON 3313 8604 3344 8589 3355 8577 3363 8562
      3389 8552 3389 8539 3344 8532 3314 8529

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
145 PM CST SUN JAN 24 2010

.UPDATE...FOR WATCH NO 10.

&&

.145 PM DISCUSSION...

HAVE CLIPPED A FEW MORE COUNTIES OFF OF TOR WATCH
10...ELMORE...LOWNDES...CLAY...AND CLEBURNE COUNTIES FROM WATCH.
REST OF WATCH REMAINS.

08

&&

.1140 AM DISCUSSION...

UPDATED ZONES/GRIDS TO ADJUST FOR NEW TOR WATCH #10 IN EFFECT
UNTIL 23Z FOR ERN PORTIONS OF CWA...AS LINE MARCHES EWD. AS THREAT
AND LINE MOVE EWD WILL SLICE COUNTIES FROM WATCH ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.1030 AM DISCUSSION...

FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH WIND GUSTS AHEAD OF SQUALL LINE HAS BEEN
NEAR 35 KNOTS.  AT 1030 AM SFC LOW IN VICINITY OF CHILTON/COOSA
COUNTY WITH WARM FRONT DUE EAST INTO WESTERN GA.  GREATEST THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 65
AND SOUTH OF I-20 FOR REMAINDER OF MORNING AND INTO AFTERNOON...
WHERE DEW POINTS IN LOW TO MID 60S ARE LOCATED. AS STORMS MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO LOWER DEW POINTS...SEVERE THREAT WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH. MUCH WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LOWER DEW POINTS BEHIND
LINE OF STORMS...SO WIND ADVISORY EXPIRING BY 2 PM LOOKS ON TRACK.
AT THIS POINT...REDEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR
LIKELY WITH ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER TODAY.

STEFKOVICH

&&

.4 AM DISCUSSION...

DECENT SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS HAVE ENTERED WESTERN ALABAMA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS WAS BEING PRODUCED BY A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVING
NORTHWARD UP THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. COUPLED WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE EAST...THERE WAS A RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. SOUTHEASTERLY WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
35 MPH RANGE JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. MORE
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR OF AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY
ACTUALLY INCREASE THESE WIND GUSTS JUST A BIT. HIGHER ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 1000 FT WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE HIGHER GUSTS. THE WIND ADVISORY
WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI STATE LINE AT 12Z...
EXTENDED TO 16Z FOR AREAS ALONG AND NEAR INTERSTATE 59...AND EXTENDED
UNTIL 20Z FOR EAST AND SOUTHEAST AREAS.

07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A RATHER COMPLEX SURFACE PATTERN. A COLD
FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR ST. LOUIS, MO TO NEAR LAKE CHARLES, LA
WITH A WARM FRONT FROM NEAR PINE BLUFF, AR TO NEAR MOB, AL. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH
SEVERAL OTHER WEAKER SURFACE TROUGHS EVIDENT. ROBUST SHORT WAVE
TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS
MISSOURI WILL ALLOW THE THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY PRESENT TO SLOW DOWN A
BIT TODAY BEFORE PUSHING EASTWARD AS ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVES MORE WEST TO EAST OVERHEAD. SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM THE SURFACE TO
5000 FT WERE TOPPING OUT AROUND 60 KTS OR SO AND THIS WILL ALLOW A
NARROW WARM SECTOR TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA. SHORT TERM
MODELS IN FAIR GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 60+ SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL
PUSH INTO THE AREA. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE NAM SOLUTION AND KEEP MUCH
THESE DEW POINTS ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA. SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED BUT MAY APPROACH THE -1 TO -2 RANGE WITH
CAPES GENERALLY 500 OR LESS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT THAT
IMPRESSIVE...EVEN WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING ALOFT. THEREFORE...WE
END UP WITH TYPICAL WINTER SCENARIO OF A LOW CAPE/HIGH SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. THE BROKEN LINE OF STORMS SHOULD GAIN SOME INTENSITY
AFTER THE SUN RISES. WILL KEEP MENTION OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE GENERALLY THE SOUTH HALF...WITH A FEW STRONG STORMS
MENTIONED FARTHER NORTH. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND
POSSIBLY SOME HAIL.

MOST AREAS WILL RECEIVE RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM. THE HIGHER RAIN
AMOUNTS WILL BE EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 WHILE A DECREASING TREND WILL
BE EXPERIENCED WEST OF INTERSTATE 65 THROUGH NOON. HELD ON TO SOME
SMALL EARLY THIS EVENING NORTHWEST AND CHANCE POPS EAST OF I-65 AS
THE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS THE SENSIBLE WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES APPEAR DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS AS A
SLUG OF COOLER AIR BRIEFLY AFFECTS THE AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP NEAR FREEZING.

THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN FLIP FLOPPING ON TIMING/PLACEMENT AND
OVERALL AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM...NOW PROGGED
DURING THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME FRAME. BUT THERE ARE SOME
SIMILARITIES. BOTH MODELS ARE ADVERTISING A MORE NORTHERN INFLUENCE
WHERE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE SHUNTED SOUTHWARD. THEREFORE...REMOVED
THE STORM STORM WORDING. BOT MODELS ARE ALSO HINTING AT SOME
BORDERLINE COLD AIR AS THE MOISTURE EXITS THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM. AT
THIS TIME...WILL LEAVE MENTION OF RAIN/SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT. BUT I DID
SPREAD OUT THE POPS AND PUT NOTHING OVER CHANCE AT THE PRESENT TIME
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. THIS WILL CERTAINLY BE A PERIOD TO WATCH.

75/LINHARES

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WINDS AHEAD OF MAIN SQUALL LINE WILL CONTINUE TO GUST OUT OF
SOUTHEAST TO AROUND 35 KNOTS...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SECTIONS
OF THE STATE. AS THE MAIN LINE MOVES THROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE STATE...1-3 HOURS OF ADDITIONAL STRATIFORM RAIN WILL OCCUR
BEHIND THE LINE...BUT NO CONVECTION (TSRA) ANTICIPATED.  IN
ADDITION...LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...WITH
WINDS BEHIND THE MAIN PRECIP DROPPING TO UNDER 10 KT AND A BRIEF
PERIOD OF VFR CLDS.  WITH PASSAGE OF TRUE FRONT AFTER 00Z...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL POOL NEAR SURFACE WITH MFVR CIGS AROUND 06Z AND
POSSIBLE IFR CONDS. STEFKOVICH

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

WIND ADVISORY
CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-CLEBURNE-TALLADEGA-CLAY-RANDOLPH-COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-
CHAMBERS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-MONTGOMERY-MACON-BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-
PIKE-BARBOUR UNTIL 2 PM

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
145 PM CST SUN JAN 24 2010

ALZ011>015-017>050-251230-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
145 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

AS A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVES THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...INCLUDING ONE OR TWO TORNADOES. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO
RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF EXCESSIVE RAIN RUNOFF ON STREETS AND
SMALL STREAMS.  THE MAIN THREAT AREA IS FOR AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 85 AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 65. IN ADDITION...AHEAD OF THE
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS
UP TO 45 MPH WILL OCCUR. THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL END WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE LINE OF STORMS...AS WELL AS THE GUSTY
WINDS...ENDING ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA BY SUNSET.

MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE UPPER TOMBIGBEE RIVER AS IT
RISES TO FLOOD STAGE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 10 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE UPPER TOMBIGBEE RIVER THROUGH
MONDAY. PLEASE REVIEW THE LATEST RIVER STATEMENTS FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BECOME
NECESSARY TODAY SOUTH AND EAST.

STEFKOVICH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
914 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2010

ALZ018-019-026-241600-
CALHOUN-ETOWAH-ST. CLAIR-
914 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR CALHOUN...ETOWAH AND ST. CLAIR
COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 AM CST...

AT 911 AM CST...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS TRACKING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM WALNUT GROVE TO BALD
ROCK...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BOAZ TO
MOODY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  ST. CLAIR SPRINGS.
  ODENVILLE.
  PELL CITY.
  ST. CLAIR COUNTY AIRPORT.
  WHITNEY JUNCTION.
  RIVERSIDE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
955 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0948 AM     HAIL             1 SE CLANTON            32.82N 86.61W
01/24/2010  E0.88 INCH       CHILTON            AL   PUBLIC

            NICKEL SIZED HAIL WAS REPORTED AT CLANTON ELEMENTARY
            SCHOOL

&&

61

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1005 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0355 AM     HAIL             5 SSE CARBON HILL       33.84N 87.48W
01/24/2010  E1.00 INCH       WALKER             AL   PUBLIC

            REPORTED ALONG YELLOW JACKET RD NEAR THE CEDRUM AREA.

&&

GOLDEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1009 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0956 AM     TSTM WND GST     4 SE CLANTON            32.80N 86.58W
01/24/2010  M70 MPH          CHILTON            AL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A SPOTTER WITH A HANDHELD ANEMOMETER MEASURED WINDS TO 70
            MPH NEAR THE PEACH TOWER EXIT AT US-31 AND I-65 IN
            CLANTON.

&&

61

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1057 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1035 AM     HEAVY RAIN       GADSDEN                 34.01N 86.01W
01/24/2010  E0.00 INCH       ETOWAH             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORTS OF WATER COVERING PORTIONS OF 11TH ST AND
            NOCCALULA RD. ALSO REPORTS OF WATER STANDING ON SEVERAL
            ROADS IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTY...DEPTH OF WATER
            UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.

&&

GOLDEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1104 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1050 AM     HEAVY RAIN       SYLACAUGA               33.18N 86.26W
01/24/2010  E0.00 INCH       TALLADEGA          AL   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            REPORTS OF ROADWAY COVERED IN WATER ON W 10TH ST IN THE
            MIGNON AREA.

&&

GOLDEN