Severe Thunderstorm Warning 210, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1241 PM CDT SAT JUN 19 2010

.UPDATE...18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SOME CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.

OBVIOUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM OVERNIGHT MCS CONTINUES TO PUSH
SOUTHWARD...ALTHOUGH HAS DECELERATED SOMEWHAT OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS AS IT ENTERS THE TN VALLEY. AT THE SAME TIME...RUC AND NAM
DEPICT A COMPLEX OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES ROUNDING THE APEX OF THE
RIDGE AXIS. LEAD WAVE MAY BE THE MCV...BUT THE TRAILING MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WAVE LOOKS TO BE ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE. LOOKS LIKE THE
ONSET OF STORMS SHOULD FIRE FIRST IN THE NORTH...THEN SHIFT
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS FEATURES WITH PLENTY OF
HEATING OUT AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES TODAY...ATMOSPHERE LOOKS TO BE
ON THE VERGE OF POPPING...SUPPORTING A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL THREAT
OF WET MICROBURSTS WITH ANY WELL DEVELOPED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. WILL DO JUST A TAD MORE MESO-
ANALYSIS BEFORE CHANGING THE EXTENT OF THE THREAT FOR THE
AFTERNOON. JUST ISSUED MCD BY SPC SEEMS TO LEND SOME CREDENCE TO
MY LINE OF THINKING.

MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES...AND TO TEMPORALLY DELINEATE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS.

ZONES ALREADY ON THE STREETS. STAY COOL AND HYDRATED TIL THE
STORMS GET TO YOU...

JD/02

&&

AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
LINE WILL CONTINUE TO TREK SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON...AND COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL. TAF SITES MOST AFFECTED WILL BE TCL...BHM...EET AND ANB THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LINE SHOULD WEAKEN BEFORE IT REACHES MGM AND
TOI...BUT ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OUT AHEAD OF THE LINE...SO
KEPT VCTS IN FOR THE SOUTH.

ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...WITH WINDS BECOMING CALM AND
SKIES CLEARING.

NOTICE...KEET TAF WILL HAVE (AMD LTD TO VIS WIND AND WX) AMENDED TO
THE END OF THE FORECAST UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE WHILE CEILOMETER DATA
IS BEING MONITORED FOR ACCURACY. ALSO...KTCL IS NOT REPORTING...SO
HAVE INCLUDED AMEND NOT SKED FOR THIS SITE AS WELL.

19

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

88/19

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1245 PM CDT SAT JUN 19 2010

ALZ011>015-017>050-201130-
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-
CHEROKEE-CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-
TALLADEGA-CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-
COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-
MONTGOMERY-MACON-BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
1245 PM CDT SAT JUN 19 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN THROUGH 9 PM GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CENTRE TO ONEONTA...TO TUSCALOOSA.
SOME STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS TO 60 MPH
OR GREATER...AS WELL AS DIME TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

JD/02

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
148 PM CDT SAT JUN 19 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0105 PM     HEAVY RAIN       LEEDS                   33.55N 86.56W
06/19/2010  E0.00 INCH       JEFFERSON          AL   PUBLIC

            MINOR FLOODING BEING REPORTED ON SEVERAL STREETS IN AND
            AROUND THE LEEDS AREA.

&&

GOLDEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
157 PM CDT SAT JUN 19 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1256 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NNW NORTH RIVER       33.49N 87.60W
06/19/2010                   TUSCALOOSA         AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN ON GORGAS RD ONE MILE NORTH OF NORTHSIDE RD.

&&

GOLDEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
200 PM CDT SAT JUN 19 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0120 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NNE HOLT              33.30N 87.49W
06/19/2010                   TUSCALOOSA         AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE NICOL AND THE
            NORTH RIVER YACHT CLUB.

&&

GOLDEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
207 PM CDT SAT JUN 19 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0133 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 E COLUMBIANA          33.18N 86.59W
06/19/2010                   SHELBY             AL   PUBLIC

            COLUMBIANA FIRE DEPT RESPONDING TO 4 TREES DOWN ON THE
            800 BLOCK OF FERRY RD.

&&

GOLDEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
217 PM CDT SAT JUN 19 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1215 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 NW MONTEVALLO         33.15N 86.91W
06/19/2010                   SHELBY             AL   PUBLIC

            TREE DOWN NEAR INTERSECTION OF HWY 22 AND LANDVIEW RD.

&&

GOLDEN