Severe Thunderstorm Warning 201, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1034 AM CDT SAT JUN 19 2010

.UPDATE...

SOME CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.

OBVIOUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM OVERNIGHT MCS CONTINUES TO PUSH
SOUTHWARD...ALTHOUGH HAS DECELERATED SOMEWHAT OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS AS IT ENTERS THE TN VALLEY. AT THE SAME TIME...RUC AND NAM
DEPICT A COMPLEX OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES ROUNDING THE APEX OF THE
RIDGE AXIS. LEAD WAVE MAY BE THE MCV...BUT THE TRAILING MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WAVE LOOKS TO BE ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE. LOOKS LIKE THE
ONSET OF STORMS SHOULD FIRE FIRST IN THE NORTH...THEN SHIFT
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS FEATURES WITH PLENTY OF
HEATING OUT AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES TODAY...ATMOSPHERE LOOKS TO BE
ON THE VERGE OF POPPING...SUPPORTING A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL THREAT
OF WET MICROBURSTS WITH ANY WELL DEVELOPED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. WILL DO JUST A TAD MORE MESO-
ANALYSIS BEFORE CHANGING THE EXTENT OF THE THREAT FOR THE
AFTERNOON. JUST ISSUED MCD BY SPC SEEMS TO LEND SOME CREDENCE TO
MY LINE OF THINKING.

MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES...AND TO TEMPORALLY DELINEATE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS.

ZONES ALREADY ON THE STREETS. STAY COOL AND HYDRATED TIL THE
STORMS GET TO YOU...

JD/02

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 AM CDT SAT JUN 19 2010/

UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

DISCUSSION...

STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL OF MUCH OF THE SOUTH
AND IS CENTERED NEAR THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS BORDER. THERE ARE SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES APPARENT THIS MORNING RIDING ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGE.
THE FIRST IS IN THE MIDWEST...WITH THE SECOND ONE IN OKLAHOMA. THE
ONE IN OKLAHOMA WILL SWING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND HELP
INCREASE OUR CHANCES FOR MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION AREAWIDE. THE
SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH WILL GENERALLY SLIDE EAST DURING THE DAY.
ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SHORTWAVE
THE MEAN FLOW WILL KEEP IT AWAY FROM OUR NECK OF THE WOODS.

SO FOR TODAY...WENT WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AREAWIDE...WITH
THE HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. CURRENT PWS AND
FORECAST PWS SUGGEST THAT THIS WILL BE THE BEST LOCATION FOR
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COINCIDES WITH THE TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVE AS WELL. ONE OTHER CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE THE HEAT
INDEX...AS VALUES WILL BE GENERALLY BETWEEN 100 AND 105...WITH
READINGS AS HIGH AS 108 IN THE SOUTHWEST...WHERE THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE. A HEAT ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY NOT
EXPECTED AS HEAT INDEX VALUES REMAINED BELOW CRITERIA ON FRIDAY
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL BELOW 75 DEGREES.
HOWEVER...WITH HEAT INDICES STILL EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN
100-108 DEGREES...THE APPROPRIATE PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN
DURING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES TO AVOID ANY HEAT RELATED ILLNESS.

STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE THE CHANCE TO BE
STRONG TO SEVERE ALONG WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING AS SLOW MOTION IS
EXPECTED. ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET WITH MOST
IF NOT ALL CONVECTION GONE BY 10 PM.

CONDITIONS DRY OUT ON SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD ON TOP OF
THE AREA. IN FACT IT LOOKS LIKE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAYS THIS WEEK. DID LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOONS.

BY WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE BEGINS TO RECYCLE WITH THE STRONGEST PORTION
DEVELOPING BACK TO THE WEST. THIS WOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO LOWER
A FEW DEGREES...BACK INTO THE MID 90S. HAVE DECIDED TO CONTINUE WITH
THE DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE FLOW WILL BE
NORTHERLY AND KEEP A GOOD PORTION OF THE GULF MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE
AREA. GFS AND EURO ARE NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT HERE AS GFS TRIES TO
BRING A FRONT DOWN...WHILE THE EURO STAYS DRY. GIVEN THAT THIS IS
JUNE WILL STICK WITH THE EURO AND GO WITH A PERSISTENT
FORECAST...BUT STAY TUNED THERE COULD BE SOME CHANGES LURKING IN THE
FUTURE.

AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A COUPLE OF TAF SITES ARE STARTING OFF AT MVFR VSBY DUE TO
FOG...ALTHOUGH TOI IS ACTUALLY IFR.  EXPECT VFR ALL SITES BY 15Z.
MOISTURE GRADIENT EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTHWEST...WITH
GREATEST MOISTURE SOUTHWEST.  BEST CHANCES OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWEST...WHICH INCLUDES TCL.  ONLY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AFTER 01Z.

NOTICE...KEET TAF WILL HAVE (AMD LTD TO VIS WIND AND WX) AMENDED TO
THE END OF THE FORECAST UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE WHILE CEILOMETER DATA
IS BEING MONITORED FOR ACCURACY. ALSO...KTCL IS NOT REPORTING...SO
HAVE INCLUDED AMEND NOT SKED FOR THIS SITE AS WELL.

03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     95  72  96  73  96 /  50  10  10  10  10
ANNISTON    95  71  96  71  96 /  40  10  20  10  20
BIRMINGHAM  95  72  96  72  96 /  50  10  20  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  97  73  99  72  98 /  50  20  20  10  10
CALERA      94  73  96  72  95 /  50  20  20  10  20
AUBURN      95  70  97  70  95 /  30  20  20  10  20
MONTGOMERY  97  74  98  73  96 /  40  20  20  10  20
TROY        96  72  97  72  95 /  50  20  20  10  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

88/02/88

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
725 AM CDT SAT JUN 19 2010

ALZ011>015-017>050-201130-
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-
CHEROKEE-CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-
TALLADEGA-CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-
COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-
MONTGOMERY-MACON-BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
725 AM CDT SAT JUN 19 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 1 PM
AND 9 PM GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ONEONTA TO
WEDOWEE. SOME STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
TO 50 MPH OR GREATER...AS WELL AS DIME TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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