Severe Thunderstorm Warning 182, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
239 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2010

.DISCUSSION...

AT THE SFC...VERY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER
HIGH PRESSURE OVER ERN GA/ERN FL...CREATING SW/S FLOW ACROSS C AL.
THE COMBINATION OF VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND THE UPPER FLOW IS
HELP TO GENERATE HEAT INDUCED ACTIVITY AS WELL AS A GOOD MOISTURE
FEED AROUND THE UPPER HIGH ALONG WITH INTERACTION WITH A
DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH. EXPECT
THIS ACTIVITY TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY SOMEWHAT DURING THE EVENING
WITH LOSS OF HEATING...BUT WILL LEAVE POPS IN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS AN
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE SHOULD MOVE ACROSS AL TONIGHT. FLOW WILL
REMAIN THE SAME FOR WED SO A POSSIBLE REPEAT WITH ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED SO WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS IN FOR
WHOLE DAY. AS WE MOVE INTO THU...UPPER HIGH RETROGRADES TO OUR W.
THIS WILL PUT US IN A NW FLOW PATTERN AS HIGH CENTERS OVER TX/LA.
THIS WILL CHANGE THE FLOW OF ACTIVITY BUT KEEP US IN LINE A DECENT
SHOTS FOR TSRA ACTIVITY FOR THU AS WELL. AS WE MOVE INTO THE
WEEKEND...BERMUDA HIGH WEAKENS AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL AIDE IN
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR DIURNAL TSRA ACTIVITY.

WITH UPPER HIGH REMAINING A FACTOR AND NO DECENT FRONTAL
ACTIVITY...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY WARM IN THE LOWER TO MID
90S WITH HEAT INDICES FROM THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S. HEAT
ISSUES WILL REMAIN A FACTOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

08

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
I-20/59 CORRIDOR. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING.
FOR MGM AND TOI...CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE A LITTLE HIGHER BUT SOME
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. WILL WORD TAFS WITH VC AND
CB THROUGH 01Z WHEN ACTIVITY SHOULD BE TOO ISOLATED TO INCLUDE IN
TAF COVERAGE.

LOTS OF HZ/BR EVEN THROUGH THE PEAK HEATING HOURS ALONG WITH HIGH
SPECIFIC HUMIDITY VALUES SUGGESTS A THREAT OF IFR VISIBILITIES
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WILL BE CONSERVATIVE WITH MVFR VALUES
AND SEE HOW TODAYS RAINFALL AFFECTS THE AREA.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SW EXCEPT IN THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WHERE
VARIABILITY AND HIGHER GUSTS SHOULD BE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     70  93  69  90  71 /  40  40  20  30  20
ANNISTON    73  93  70  92  72 /  40  40  20  30  20
BIRMINGHAM  75  92  73  92  73 /  40  40  30  30  20
TUSCALOOSA  74  92  70  92  73 /  40  50  30  40  20
CALERA      74  92  72  91  72 /  50  40  40  40  20
AUBURN      74  94  72  92  72 /  30  30  30  40  20
MONTGOMERY  73  94  72  93  74 /  40  40  30  40  20
TROY        72  95  71  93  74 /  30  30  30  40  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

08/88

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
115 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2010

ALZ011>015-017>050-161817-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
115 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH ROUGHLY 8
PM ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. SOME STORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH OR GREATER...AS WELL AS
DIME TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BE
NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
304 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0209 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CAMP HILL               32.80N 85.65W
06/15/2010                   TALLAPOOSA         AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN ON HOUSE AND TRUCK ALONG OLD HWY 280.

&&

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