Severe Thunderstorm Warning 161, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1240 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2010

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WENT AHEAD AND RAISED POPS THROUGHOUT THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA TO REFLECT THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF A BOUNDARY
THAT WAS ANALYZED AT 13Z THIS MORNING. ALSO TWEAKED TEMPS A BIT TO
REFLECT CURRENT TEMPERATURES...BUT OVERALL TEMPS LOOK GOOD ACROSS
THE BOARD. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS OVER 50 MPH. AN ISOLATED
SEVERE GUST ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WET MICROBURST POTENTIAL WILL
BE HIGH....WITH CAPES OVER 4000...AND DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS
THAT COULD MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITH EVAPORATIVE COOLING. A FEW
OTHER STATIONARY BOUNDARIES OUT THERE COULD LEAD TO MORE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. UPDATES ARE OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
I-20/59 CORRIDOR. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING.
FOR MGM AND TOI...CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE A LITTLE HIGHER BUT SOME
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. WILL WORD TAFS WITH VC AND
CB THROUGH 01Z WHEN ACTIVITY SHOULD BE TOO ISOLATED TO INCLUDE IN
TAF COVERAGE.

LOTS OF HZ/BR EVEN THROUGH THE PEAK HEATING HOURS ALONG WITH HIGH
SPECIFIC HUMIDITY VALUES SUGGESTS A THREAT OF IFR VISIBILITIES
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WILL BE CONSERVATIVE WITH MVFR VALUES
AND SEE HOW TODAYS RAINFALL AFFECTS THE AREA.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SW EXCEPT IN THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WHERE
VARIABILITY AND HIGHER GUSTS SHOULD BE EXPECTED.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

58/88

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
600 AM CDT TUE JUN 15 2010

ALZ011>015-017>050-161100-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
600 AM CDT TUE JUN 15 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.  A FEW STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH OR GREATER AS WELL AS BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

12/SIRMON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1245 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1232 PM     HAIL             TARRANT                 33.59N 86.77W
06/15/2010  E1.75 INCH       JEFFERSON          AL   BROADCAST MEDIA

            GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN TARRANT.

&&

GGOGGINS