Severe Thunderstorm Warning 18, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
533 PM CST WED MAR 10 2010

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

GOING TO FOCUS ON THE MAIN CONCERN FOR RIGHT NOW AND THAT IS THE
SEVERE THREAT AS WELL AND CONTINUED FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA.
LOOKING AT SOME MESOSCALE FEATURES ONGOING RIGHT NOW...WE HAVE TWO
MAIN FEATURES THAT WE ARE WATCHING.

THE FIRST IS A STUBBORN BUBBLE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS BUBBLE HIGH IS PROVIDING TWO
SCENARIOS TO THE REGION. THE FIRST IS THAT IT IS KEEPING THE
NORTHEAST A LITTLE MORE STABLE THAN THE SOUTHWEST. THE SECOND IS
THAT IS PROVIDING SOME EXTRA CONVERGENCE THAT IS RESULTING IN
OVER-RUNNING ACROSS THE NORTH AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS
OVER-RUNNING HAS ALLOWED TRAINING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP AND PRODUCED VERY LARGE RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS AREAS
GENERALLY NORTH OF I-20. THESE HAVE BEEN COVERED WITH AREAL FLOOD
WARNINGS. THIS IS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THIS MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL HAS BEEN FALLING OVER A PERIOD OF 12 PLUS HOURS. WHAT THIS
DOES IS RESULTS IN A SLOWER RISE TO FLOOD LEVELS ACROSS THE AREA.
WHILE THESE ARE NOT FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS...THESE WARNINGS ARE JUST
AS DANGEROUS. IF YOU ENCOUNTER FLOODING PLEASE TURN AROUND AND DO
NOT DROWN. SOME REPORTS OF OVER 4 INCHES OF RAIN CENTERED AROUND
SHELBY COUNTY HAVE FALLEN SINCE MIDNIGHT.

THE SECOND FEATURE IS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS CURRENTLY NOW SOUTH
OF A CARROLLTON TO MONTGOMERY LINE. THIS BOUNDARY HAS BEEN SLOWLY
MOVING NORTH. SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER
60S AND LOW 70S. NUMEROUS SUPER CELLS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THIS AREA
AND CROSS OVER THE BOUNDARY. THIS HAS HELPED TO INCREASE THE
ROTATION WITH THE SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOPED. MOST OF THE CELLS ARE
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND WE WILL LIKELY SEE A WEAKENING TREND OVER
THE NEXT HOUR. HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT WITH THESE STORMS.
MORE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS THIS BOUNDARY SLIDES NORTH.

THIS SYSTEM AND AIRMASS WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT...WHILE THE SECOND MORE AGGRESSIVE DRYLINE WORKS INTO THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING
THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...SO RAISED POPS QUITE A BIT THURSDAY MORNING. STILL MAY SEE
DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT WORKS THROUGH
ACROSS THE EAST. SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY BEFORE
FINALLY CLEARING SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AVIATION PROBLEMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT AS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD.  EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
AROUND ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA HAS ALSO SEEN WATER OVER MANY
TAXIWAYS...ESPECIALLY HERE AT EET...SO BE MINDFUL OF ALL OF THE
WATER ON THE GROUND.

HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH AN OVERALL MVFR SET UP...AND WILL AMEND FOR
TS AS WARRANTED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH LIKELY IFR CIGS AND
VIS IN AND AROUND HEAVIER RAINS AND TS.

WINDS HAVE NOT BEEN A BIG PROBLEM...THOUGH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 AROUND
THE AREA HAVE BEEN REPORTED. WITH A SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA FROM KEUF TO KTOI TO K7A2...WINDS NORTH OF
THAT LINE ARE OUT OF THE EAST...AND SOUTHERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THAT
BOUNDARY.

27

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: AUTAUGA...BARBOUR...BIBB...BLOUNT...BULLOCK...
CALHOUN...CHAMBERS...CHEROKEE...CHILTON...CLAY...CLEBURNE...
COOSA...DALLAS...ELMORE...ETOWAH...FAYETTE...GREENE...HALE...
JEFFERSON...LAMAR...LEE...LOWNDES...MACON...MARENGO...MARION...
MONTGOMERY...PERRY...PICKENS...PIKE...RANDOLPH...RUSSELL...
SHELBY...ST. CLAIR...SUMTER...TALLADEGA...TALLAPOOSA...
TUSCALOOSA...WALKER...WINSTON.

&&

16/27

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
508 PM CST WED MAR 10 2010

ALZ011>015-017>050-111300-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
508 PM CST WED MAR 10 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH
TONIGHT.  PLEASE REFER TO ONGOING FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND WARNING
STATEMENTS FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

THERE IS A THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA.  THIS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT COULD LAST AS LATE AS
MIDNIGHT.  THE HIGHEST THREAT...INCLUDING A SMALL TREAT OF
TORNADOES...IS IN THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BE
NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

61

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
546 PM CST WED MAR 10 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     HAIL             BIRMINGHAM              33.53N 86.80W
03/10/2010  E0.25 INCH       JEFFERSON          AL   AMATEUR RADIO

            PEA SIZE HAIL REPORTED AT TRINITY MEDICAL CENTER ON
            MONTCLAIR ROAD.

0516 PM     FLOOD            8 NE TALLADEGA          33.51N 86.00W
03/10/2010                   TALLADEGA          AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS REPORTS OF FLOODING IN THE MUNFORD AREA
            APPROXIMATELY 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF TALLADEGA...INCLUDING
            THE COMMUNITIES OF STEMLEY...RENFROE AND MOXLEY
            CROSSROADS.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
552 PM CST WED MAR 10 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     HAIL             WETUMPKA                32.54N 86.20W
03/10/2010  E0.25 INCH       ELMORE             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            PEA SIZE HAIL ALONG HWY 231 IN WETUMPKA.

0350 PM     FLOOD            HELENA                  33.29N 86.85W
03/10/2010                   SHELBY             AL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HELENA PD REPORTS NUMEROUS ROADS FLOODED AND CLOSED
            THROUGHOUT HELENA.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
611 PM CST WED MAR 10 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     FLOOD            8 NE TALLADEGA          33.51N 86.00W
03/10/2010                   TALLADEGA          AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FLOODING JUST NORTH OF MUNFORD ON MCAFFEE RD AT RITCHIE
            TOWN RD.

0550 PM     FLOOD            5 N TALLADEGA           33.50N 86.10W
03/10/2010                   TALLADEGA          AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            911 REPORTS BRIDGE WASHED OUT AT JACKSON TRACE RD AND
            PINE HILL RD.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
614 PM CST WED MAR 10 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0605 PM     HAIL             CUSSETA                 32.78N 85.31W
03/10/2010  E0.50 INCH       CHAMBERS           AL   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORT OF DIME SIZE HAIL IN CUSSETA.

&&