Flash Flood Warning 17, NWS Birmingham, AL

474 
WGUS74 KBMX 031453
FFSBMX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
953 AM CDT MON MAY 3 2010

ALC001-011-017-021-027-037-051-081-085-087-101-109-111-113-123-
031615-
/O.CON.KBMX.FF.W.0017.000000T0000Z-100503T1615Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
PIKE AL-BULLOCK AL-LOWNDES AL-MONTGOMERY AL-RUSSELL AL-MACON AL-
AUTAUGA AL-LEE AL-ELMORE AL-CHILTON AL-COOSA AL-TALLAPOOSA AL-
CHAMBERS AL-CLAY AL-RANDOLPH AL-
953 AM CDT MON MAY 3 2010

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1115 AM CDT FOR
SOUTHERN RANDOLPH...SOUTHEASTERN CLAY...CHAMBERS...TALLAPOOSA...
SOUTHEASTERN COOSA...SOUTHEASTERN CHILTON...ELMORE...LEE...EASTERN
AUTAUGA...MACON...RUSSELL...MONTGOMERY...LOWNDES...BULLOCK AND PIKE
COUNTIES...

AT 936 AM CDT...HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE WARNED 
AREA.  AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE DURING 
THE NEXT TWO HOURS. IN TALLAPOOSA COUNTY RESIDUAL FLOODING CONTINUES 
IN THE ALEXANDER CITY AREA AND DUTCH BEND ROAD NEAR NEW SITE IS ALSO 
FLOODED AND MAY HAVE TO BE CLOSED. IN ADDITION...GANTTS MILL ROAD 
NEAR REELTOWN IS FLOODED.

STREET FLOODING IS ALSO REPORTED IN HURTSBORO IN RUSSELL COUNTY AND 
IN PORTIONS OF CHAMBERS COUNTY.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO 
WETUMPKA......WELONA...WELCH...WAVERLY...WADLEY...TUSKEGEE NATIONAL 
FOREST...TUSKEGEE......TALLASSEE...TALLAPOOSA 
CITY...SHORTER...SEALE......ROCKFORD...ROANOKE...PRATTVILLE...
PIKE ROAD...OPELIKA...MONTGOMERY...MILSTEAD...MILLBROOK...MARTIN 
DAM...LOWNDESBORO...LANETT...LAFAYETTE...LADONIA...HURTSBORO...HOPE 
HULL...HILLABEE CREEK...GOODWATER...ELMORE...ECLECTIC...DEATSVILLE. 
..DADEVILLE...CUSSETA...COOSADA...BENTON...AUTAUGAVILLE...AUBURN...
ALEXANDER CITY...AND FRANKLIN

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION. RAINFALL FROM PERSISTENT RAIN WILL 
PRODUCE FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND ALONG STREETS. ADDITIONAL 
ROADS MAY HAVE TO BE CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER.  IF YOU MUST TRAVEL 
USE EXTREME CAUTION AND AVOID ROADWAYS THAT ARE FLOODED.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...
CALL 1-800-856-0758.

LAT...LON 3227 8489 3206 8506 3216 8541 3203 8543
      3195 8563 3179 8566 3162 8598 3163 8618
      3195 8619 3197 8630 3205 8631 3197 8641
      3197 8686 3222 8691 3223 8681 3231 8683
      3297 8629 3321 8590 3327 8526 3234 8500

$$

41

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
531 AM CDT MON MAY 3 2010

.DISCUSSION...

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH
EASTWARD THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. MAIN THREATS THIS
MORNING WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD PRODUCE
FLOODING. AN ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS IS ALSO NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. OVER
TO THE EXTREME NORTHWEST ZONES WHERE THE RAIN HAS ALREADY
ENDED...PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED. NOT EXPECTING FOR FOG TO
DEVELOP ANY FARTHER SOUTH AT THIS TIME. TOMORROW MAY BE A
DIFFERENT STORY THOUGH AS FOG WILL BE MORE PREDOMINANT AS SKIES
ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM EXITS THE FORECAST AREA...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL AND TEMPERATURES TO SOAR INTO THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90
DEGREES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. JUST AS TEMPERATURES SOAR...LONG
RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN INCOMING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND COULD HELP BRING TEMPERATURES
BACK DOWN TO WELL BELOW NORMAL.

THERE ARE SOME BIG QUESTION MARKS FOR THIS SYSTEM NEXT WEEKEND.
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST US WILL BE MORE OF A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW WHICH USUALLY
ALLOW FRONTS TO LOSE SPEED AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY.
SITUATIONS LIKE THIS PRODUCE A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST ESPECIALLY
THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. THE 00Z GFS SHOWED A MORE ZONAL FLOW BUT THE
06Z SHOWS MORE OF A TROF ALOFT AND THUS ALLOW THE FRONT TO CLEAR
THE ENTIRE AREA. EXPECT FOR A BACK AND FORTH OF SORTS IN THE MODELS
AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS UNTIL THEY BEGIN TO SETTLE ON
A PARTICULAR SOLUTION. FOR NOW...WILL TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
MOS AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

10/ARM

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MAIN CHALLENGE WITH THE AVIATION FORECAST REMAINS TRYING TO TIME THE
ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THE LEADING
EDGE HAS MADE A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS OVER THE LAST 6-8 HOURS...AND
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DO SO OVERNIGHT. DUE TO THE TROPICAL
NATURE OF THE AIR MASS...THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE VERY EFFICIENT
AT DROPPING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WHEN THEY MOVE THROUGH.
HOWEVER...IN BETWEEN THE RAIN DROPS...CONDITIONS VARY QUITE A BIT.
THUS...IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO COME UP WITH A REPRESENTATIVE
CONDITION WHILE THE RAIN IS MOVING IN AND OUT. HAVE TRIED MY BEST.

THE BACK EDGE IS MOVING JUST AS SLOWLY EASTWARD AS THE LEADING
EDGE...SO IT WILL BE SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE TCL GETS ANY DEFINITIVE
IMPROVEMENT. BUT...MODELS INSIST THAT WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY SWING
AROUND TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST...AND START TO USHER IN A DRIER AIR
MASS AND EVENTUALLY IMPROVE THINGS BACK TO VFR.

NOTICE...KEET TAF WILL HAVE (AMD LTD TO VIS WIND AND WX) AMENDED
TO THE END OF THE FORECAST UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE WHILE CEILOMETER
DATA IS BEING MONITORED FOR ACCURACY.

/61/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     84  54  86  52  89 /  30  10   0   0   0
ANNISTON    84  56  88  56  90 /  40  10  10   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  85  57  88  60  89 /  20  10   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  89  53  89  56  92 /  10  10  10   0   0
CALERA      84  59  87  59  89 /  30  10  10   0   0
AUBURN      82  62  87  60  88 /  90  40  10   0  10
MONTGOMERY  85  63  89  60  90 /  70  20  10   0   0
TROY        82  64  88  60  90 /  80  40  20   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: AUTAUGA...BIBB...BLOUNT...CALHOUN...CHEROKEE...
CHILTON...CLAY...CLEBURNE...COOSA...DALLAS...ELMORE...ETOWAH...
HALE...JEFFERSON...LOWNDES...MARENGO...MONTGOMERY...PERRY...
RANDOLPH...SHELBY...ST. CLAIR...TALLADEGA...TALLAPOOSA.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: TUSCALOOSA...WALKER.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BARBOUR...BULLOCK...CHAMBERS...LEE...MACON...PIKE...
RUSSELL.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
600 AM CDT MON MAY 3 2010

ALZ011>015-017>050-041100-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
600 AM CDT MON MAY 3 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR...AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA. WITH GUSTY WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.
FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY AS MOISTURE LEVELS
REMAIN VERY HIGH. 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
TOTALS...REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR THE SAME AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

WITH THE HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE CURRENT SYSTEM...SEVERAL RIVERS MAY
REACH OR EXCEED FLOOD STAGES THROUGH THURSDAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BE NEEDED
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
333 AM CDT MON MAY 3 2010

ALZ037-038-030915-
CHAMBERS-TALLAPOOSA-
333 AM CDT MON MAY 3 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR CHAMBERS AND TALLAPOOSA COUNTIES
UNTIL 415 AM CDT...

AT 329 AM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR STILL WATERS RESORT...OR 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
DADEVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  BLUE CREEK MARINA.
  DADEVILLE.
  CAMP HILL.
  RIDGE GROVE.
  TRAMMEL CROSSROADS.
  BUFFALO.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

27

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
401 AM CDT MON MAY 3 2010

ALZ019-021-030945-
CALHOUN-CLEBURNE-
401 AM CDT MON MAY 3 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR CALHOUN AND CLEBURNE COUNTIES UNTIL
445 AM CDT...

AT 357 AM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR OXFORD LAKE...OR NEAR OXFORD...MOVING EAST AT 45
MPH.

WINDS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  DEARMANVILLE.
  CAMP SEQUOYAH.
  CHALAFINNEE.
  HEFLIN.
  EDWARDSVILLE.
  I 20 WELCOME CENTER.

THIS THUNDERSTORM COULD INTENSIFY QUICKLY...SO BE READY TO ACT IF A
WARNING IS ISSUED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

27

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
644 AM CDT MON MAY 03 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0553 AM     FLASH FLOOD      5 ESE MILLERVILLE       33.16N 85.85W
05/03/2010                   CLAY               AL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERE FLOODING REPORTED ON COUNTY ROAD 35 IN THE BLUFF
            SPRINGS AREA.

&&

REM