Flash Flood Warning 15, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1150 PM CDT SUN MAY 2 2010

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

BEGINNING TO FINALLY SEE THE LIGHT AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL IN THE
EXTREME NORTHWEST AS THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE CWA. EXPECT THAT MOST STORMS WILL LOSE
THEIR SEVERE EDGE AS WE CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER...A FEW MAY REMAIN ON THE STRONGER SIDE. THERE
IS AN OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY THAT ONE OR TWO COULD GET REACH SEVERE
LIMITS...BUT AS THE BETTER DYNAMICS QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND
THE AREA CONTINUES TO GET WORKED OVER BY HEAVY RAINFALL...DON'T
EXPECT IT WILL BE THE NORM. OTHERWISE...THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN
CONTINUES AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS AS THE BEST FORCING
SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTH WITH TIME. THE MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES
TO BE IMPRESSIVE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH PW VALUES MAXIMIZED OVER
2 INCHES. THIS COULD LEND TO THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED
FLOODING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MOST COUNTIES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW. STILL EXPECTING EVERYONE TO BE IN THE
GENERAL 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE WITH SOME ISOLATED LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. HAVE SHORTENED THE LENGTH ON THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN THE
EXTREME WEST...BUT FOR THE CENTRAL AND EAST...WILL KEEP IN PLACE
AS IS. GRADIENT WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONGEST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...ALTHOUGH SOME WEAKENING IS STILL EXPECTED AS THE EARLY
MORNING APPROACHES.  UPDATES ARE OUT.

&&

AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MAIN CHALLENGE WITH THE AVIATION FORECAST REMAINS TRYING TO TIME THE
ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THE LEADING
EDGE HAS MADE A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS OVER THE LAST 6-8 HOURS...AND
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DO SO OVERNIGHT. DUE TO THE TROPICAL
NATURE OF THE AIR MASS...THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE VERY EFFICIENT
AT DROPPING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WHEN THEY MOVE THROUGH.
HOWEVER...IN BETWEEN THE RAIN DROPS...CONDITIONS VARY QUITE A BIT.
THUS...IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO COME UP WITH A REPRESENTATIVE
CONDITION WHILE THE RAIN IS MOVING IN AND OUT. HAVE TRIED MY BEST.

THE BACK EDGE IS MOVING JUST AS SLOWLY EASTWARD AS THE LEADING
EDGE...SO IT WILL BE SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE TCL GETS ANY DEFINITIVE
IMPROVEMENT. BUT...MODELS INSIST THAT WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY SWING
AROUND TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST...AND START TO USHER IN A DRIER AIR
MASS AND EVENTUALLY IMPROVE THINGS BACK TO VFR.

NOTICE...KEET TAF WILL HAVE (AMD LTD TO VIS WIND AND WX) AMENDED
TO THE END OF THE FORECAST UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE WHILE CEILOMETER
DATA IS BEING MONITORED FOR ACCURACY.

/61/

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: AUTAUGA...BIBB...BLOUNT...CALHOUN...CHEROKEE...
CHILTON...CLAY...CLEBURNE...COOSA...DALLAS...ELMORE...ETOWAH...
HALE...JEFFERSON...LOWNDES...MARENGO...MONTGOMERY...PERRY...
RANDOLPH...SHELBY...ST. CLAIR...TALLADEGA...TALLAPOOSA.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
AUTAUGA...BARBOUR...BIBB...BLOUNT...BULLOCK...CALHOUN...
CHAMBERS...CHEROKEE...CHILTON...CLAY...CLEBURNE...COOSA...
DALLAS...ELMORE...ETOWAH...FAYETTE...GREENE...HALE...JEFFERSON...
LAMAR...LEE...LOWNDES...MACON...MARENGO...MARION...MONTGOMERY...
PERRY...PICKENS...PIKE...RANDOLPH...RUSSELL...SHELBY...ST.
CLAIR...SUMTER...TALLADEGA...TALLAPOOSA...TUSCALOOSA...WALKER...
WINSTON.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: TUSCALOOSA...WALKER.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: FAYETTE...GREENE...LAMAR...MARION...PICKENS...SUMTER...
WINSTON.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BARBOUR...BULLOCK...CHAMBERS...LEE...
MACON...PIKE...RUSSELL.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
155 AM CDT MON MAY 3 2010

ALZ011>015-017>050-040300-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
155 AM CDT MON MAY 3 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A SELMA...TO ALEXANDER CITY...TO WEDOWEE
LINE...AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. WITH
GUSTY WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A
POSSIBILITY AS MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN VERY HIGH. 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAIN...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS...REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT FOR THE SAME AREA. AREAS SOUTH OF A TROY TO PHENIX CITY MAY
NOT BE IMPACTED BY THE HEAVIER RAIN UNTIL SUNRISE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

SEVERE WEATHER WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AS THIS SLOW MOVING
SYSTEM CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS AND THE THREAT WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 85.

THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY.
FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

LOCAL ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BE
NEEDED SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1131 PM CDT SUN MAY 2 2010

ALZ017-018-030515-
BLOUNT-ETOWAH-
1131 PM CDT SUN MAY 2 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR BLOUNT AND ETOWAH COUNTIES UNTIL
1215 AM CDT...

AT 1126 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS TRACKING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF
MCLARTY TO FAIRVIEW...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES WEST OF
ALBERTVILLE TO CLEVELAND...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  ROSA.
  HENDRIX.
  ONEONTA.
  WALNUT GROVE.
  SARDIS CITY.
  HOWELTON.

THE GUSTY WINDS WILL BE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES...TREE
LIMBS...AND POWERLINES. SEEK SAFE SHELTER UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1138 PM CDT SUN MAY 02 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1110 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 E GARDEN CITY         34.01N 86.72W
05/02/2010                   BLOUNT             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN ON HWY 26 2 MILES EAST OF GARDEN CITY

&&

KLAWS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1149 PM CDT SUN MAY 2 2010

ALZ036-043-030515-
COOSA-ELMORE-
1149 PM CDT SUN MAY 2 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR COOSA AND ELMORE COUNTIES UNTIL 1215
AM CDT...

AT 1145 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS TRACKING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM WELONA TO TITUS TO
DEATSVILLE...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
ROCKFORD TO 13 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ROCKFORD TO 10 MILES NORTH OF
MILLBROOK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  WELONA.
  BENTLEYVILLE.
  TEN CEDAR ESTATES.
  SANTUCK.
  BRADFORD.
  RAY.

THE GUSTY WINDS WILL BE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES...TREE
LIMBS...AND POWERLINES. SEEK SAFE SHELTER UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1218 AM CDT MON MAY 3 2010

ALZ028-029-036-037-030600-
CLAY-COOSA-RANDOLPH-TALLAPOOSA-
1218 AM CDT MON MAY 3 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR CLAY...COOSA...RANDOLPH AND
TALLAPOOSA COUNTIES UNTIL 100 AM CDT...

AT 1215 AM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR KELLYTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  ALEXANDER CITY.
  HILLABEE CREEK.
  NEW SITE.
  GOLDVILLE.
  MELLOW VALLEY.
  CRAGFORD.

THIS THUNDERSTORM COULD INTENSIFY QUICKLY...SO BE READY TO ACT IF A
WARNING IS ISSUED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

27