Tornado Warning 20, NWS Bismarck, ND

134 
WWUS53 KBIS 250111
SVSBIS

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
811 PM CDT THU JUN 24 2010

NDC013-250121-
/O.EXP.KBIS.TO.W.0020.000000T0000Z-100625T0115Z/
BURKE ND-
811 PM CDT THU JUN 24 2010

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR CENTRAL BURKE COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT 815 PM
CDT/715 PM MDT/...

THIS WARNING HAS BEEN REPLACED BY ANOTHER TORNADO WARNING. 

LAT...LON 4895 10247 4873 10251 4877 10289 4895 10286
TIME...MOT...LOC 0111Z 276DEG 22KT 4883 10251

$$

SIMOSKO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
146 PM CDT THU JUN 24 2010

.SHORT TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE CONVECTION AND WHETHER
OR NOT IT WILL BE SEVERE. MODELS/ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO DANCE
AROUND CONSENSUS WITH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS/TIMING/LOCATION...SO
IT IS DIFFICULT TO NARROW DOWN AREAS THAT WILL NOT EXPERIENCE
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THUS...BLANKETED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST WITH VALUES
REMAINING A FUNCTION OF OVERLAP BETWEEN MODEL/ENSEMBLE QUANTITATIVE
PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FOR EACH TIME PERIOD.

CONCERNING SEVERE...THE SITUATION TODAY SEEMS FAIRLY MARGINAL AS
SHEAR IS THE LIMITING FACTOR. A WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS
SAGGING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL...AND A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE IGNITED JUST TO ITS NORTH. ISENTROPIC LIFT DUE
TO SOUTHERLIES POWERED BY LEE TROUGHING OVERRUNNING THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SERVE AS THE TRIGGER...BUT STORMS SHOULD
ONLY PULSE UNTIL LATER TONIGHT WHEN THE NEXT SHORTWAVE RIDES OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THEN...ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...AND THEY MAY PRESENT A HAIL/WIND
THREAT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
PLACED THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE CONVECTION EACH DAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...SO THE RISK WILL CONTINUE. FINALLY...SATURDAY
SEEMS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER...SINCE
IT IS ONE OF THE FEW AREAS WHERE MODEL/ENSEMBLE SHORTWAVE/DYNAMIC
SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION EXISTS. LOOK FOR TIMING TO BE NARROWED DOWN
IN THE NEXT COUPLE ISSUANCES/MODEL CYCLES.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

EXTENDED MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A DOMINATING CENTRAL
PLAINS RIDGE THROUGH MOST OF THE EARLY PORTION OF THE LONG TERM.
THIS WILL PRODUCE A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH DRY
WEATHER FOR AT LEAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. USED A BLEND OF THE GFS
AND ECMWF. THE GFS IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE CENTRAL PLAINS RIDGE
AND HOLDS ONTO IT THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE BEING SHUNTED EAST
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS LESS AMPLIFIED AND MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE RIDGE AND MOVES IT EAST AS EARLY AS TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS ALLOWS FOR A QUICKER RETURN OF SHORTWAVES AND SLIGHT
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO RETURN TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE MID 80S TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24HR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE A THREAT ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON
MAINLY IMPACTING KMOT. BY TONIGHT ALL OF THE AERODROMES STAND A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...AND HAIL ARE
ALL POSSIBLE. WITH ANY HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECT A POSSIBLE
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. THIS SAME PATTERN
WILL REPEAT AGAIN ON FRIDAY. SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

INCOMING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE LANDING ON TERRAIN THAT
REMAINS FAIRLY WET DUE TO STORMS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS.
BECAUSE OF THE WET NATURE OF THE PAST FEW WEEKS...THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA REMAIN UNCHARACTERISTICALLY
SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING.  NOWHERE IS THIS MORE PRONOUNCED THAN
IN THE SOURIS RIVER BASIN FROM MINOT DOWNSTREAM TO THE CANADA BORDER
WHERE THE SOURIS RIVER IS ALREADY NEAR OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE FROM
TOWNER TO WESTHOPE.  SIMILARLY...THE WILLOW CREEK NEAR WILLOW CITY
IS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AND OTHER STREAMS SUCH AS OAK CREEK IN
BOTTINEAU COUNTY ARE FLOWING VERY HIGH.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ARE LIKELY TO
EXASPERATE THESE EXISTING PROBLEMS AND RESULT IN NEW FLASH FLOOD
EVENTS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SCHECK
LONG TERM/AVIATION...KS
HYDROLOGY...AJS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
514 AM CDT THU JUN 24 2010

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-251015-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-
FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-
STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-
LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
514 AM CDT THU JUN 24 2010 /414 AM MDT THU JUN 24 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING...AND THEN AGAIN ACROSS ALL OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS.

THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN A GOOD
POSSIBILITY...WITH AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AND
THEN AGAIN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS
AND TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

CLH/NH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
710 PM CDT THU JUN 24 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0708 PM     HAIL             MENOKEN                 46.82N 100.53W
06/24/2010  M0.88 INCH       BURLEIGH           ND   PUBLIC

&&

JVINING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
718 PM CDT THU JUN 24 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0708 PM     HAIL             10 E BISMARCK           46.81N 100.57W
06/24/2010  M1.00 INCH       BURLEIGH           ND   PUBLIC

0716 PM     HAIL             10 E BISMARCK           46.81N 100.57W
06/24/2010  M1.00 INCH       BURLEIGH           ND   PUBLIC

&&

JVINING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
738 PM CDT THU JUN 24 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0734 PM     HAIL             NOONAN                  48.89N 103.01W
06/24/2010  M1.00 INCH       DIVIDE             ND   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

JVINING