Severe Thunderstorm Warning 147, NWS Bismarck, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
146 PM CDT THU JUN 24 2010

.SHORT TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE CONVECTION AND WHETHER
OR NOT IT WILL BE SEVERE. MODELS/ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO DANCE
AROUND CONSENSUS WITH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS/TIMING/LOCATION...SO
IT IS DIFFICULT TO NARROW DOWN AREAS THAT WILL NOT EXPERIENCE
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THUS...BLANKETED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST WITH VALUES
REMAINING A FUNCTION OF OVERLAP BETWEEN MODEL/ENSEMBLE QUANTITATIVE
PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FOR EACH TIME PERIOD.

CONCERNING SEVERE...THE SITUATION TODAY SEEMS FAIRLY MARGINAL AS
SHEAR IS THE LIMITING FACTOR. A WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS
SAGGING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL...AND A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE IGNITED JUST TO ITS NORTH. ISENTROPIC LIFT DUE
TO SOUTHERLIES POWERED BY LEE TROUGHING OVERRUNNING THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SERVE AS THE TRIGGER...BUT STORMS SHOULD
ONLY PULSE UNTIL LATER TONIGHT WHEN THE NEXT SHORTWAVE RIDES OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THEN...ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...AND THEY MAY PRESENT A HAIL/WIND
THREAT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
PLACED THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE CONVECTION EACH DAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...SO THE RISK WILL CONTINUE. FINALLY...SATURDAY
SEEMS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER...SINCE
IT IS ONE OF THE FEW AREAS WHERE MODEL/ENSEMBLE SHORTWAVE/DYNAMIC
SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION EXISTS. LOOK FOR TIMING TO BE NARROWED DOWN
IN THE NEXT COUPLE ISSUANCES/MODEL CYCLES.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

EXTENDED MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A DOMINATING CENTRAL
PLAINS RIDGE THROUGH MOST OF THE EARLY PORTION OF THE LONG TERM.
THIS WILL PRODUCE A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH DRY
WEATHER FOR AT LEAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. USED A BLEND OF THE GFS
AND ECMWF. THE GFS IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE CENTRAL PLAINS RIDGE
AND HOLDS ONTO IT THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE BEING SHUNTED EAST
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS LESS AMPLIFIED AND MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE RIDGE AND MOVES IT EAST AS EARLY AS TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS ALLOWS FOR A QUICKER RETURN OF SHORTWAVES AND SLIGHT
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO RETURN TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE MID 80S TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24HR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE A THREAT ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON
MAINLY IMPACTING KMOT. BY TONIGHT ALL OF THE AERODROMES STAND A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...AND HAIL ARE
ALL POSSIBLE. WITH ANY HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECT A POSSIBLE
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. THIS SAME PATTERN
WILL REPEAT AGAIN ON FRIDAY. SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

INCOMING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE LANDING ON TERRAIN THAT
REMAINS FAIRLY WET DUE TO STORMS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS.
BECAUSE OF THE WET NATURE OF THE PAST FEW WEEKS...THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA REMAIN UNCHARACTERISTICALLY
SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING.  NOWHERE IS THIS MORE PRONOUNCED THAN
IN THE SOURIS RIVER BASIN FROM MINOT DOWNSTREAM TO THE CANADA BORDER
WHERE THE SOURIS RIVER IS ALREADY NEAR OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE FROM
TOWNER TO WESTHOPE.  SIMILARLY...THE WILLOW CREEK NEAR WILLOW CITY
IS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AND OTHER STREAMS SUCH AS OAK CREEK IN
BOTTINEAU COUNTY ARE FLOWING VERY HIGH.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ARE LIKELY TO
EXASPERATE THESE EXISTING PROBLEMS AND RESULT IN NEW FLASH FLOOD
EVENTS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SCHECK
LONG TERM/AVIATION...KS
HYDROLOGY...AJS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
514 AM CDT THU JUN 24 2010

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-251015-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-
FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-
STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-
LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
514 AM CDT THU JUN 24 2010 /414 AM MDT THU JUN 24 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING...AND THEN AGAIN ACROSS ALL OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS.

THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN A GOOD
POSSIBILITY...WITH AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AND
THEN AGAIN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS
AND TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

CLH/NH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1231 AM CDT FRI JUN 25 2010

NDZ036-037-250615-
KIDDER ND-STUTSMAN ND-
1231 AM CDT FRI JUN 25 2010

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR CENTRAL KIDDER AND WESTERN STUTSMAN
COUNTIES UNTIL 115 AM CDT...

AT 1229 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTH OF DAWSON...OR 49 MILES EAST OF
BISMARCK...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  TAPPEN...
  PETTIBONE...
  CRYSTAL SPRINGS...
  MEDINA...
  WOODWORTH...
  CHASE LAKE...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

HAMILTON/NH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1259 AM CDT FRI JUN 25 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1253 AM     HAIL             PARSHALL                47.95N 102.14W
06/25/2010  M1.00 INCH       MOUNTRAIL          ND   PUBLIC

            HAIL BEGAN 1253 AM CDT. STILL HAILING.

&&

JVINING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
106 AM CDT FRI JUN 25 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0103 AM     HAIL             PARSHALL                47.95N 102.14W
06/25/2010  M2.00 INCH       MOUNTRAIL          ND   PUBLIC

            RELAYED BY MEDIA

&&

JVINING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
128 AM CDT FRI JUN 25 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1252 AM     TSTM WND GST     5 WNW PARSHALL          47.98N 102.23W
06/25/2010  M59 MPH          MOUNTRAIL          ND   MESONET

&&

NJHEINERT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
133 AM CDT FRI JUN 25 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0131 AM     HAIL             ROSEGLEN                47.75N 101.84W
06/25/2010  M1.00 INCH       MCLEAN             ND   PUBLIC

            GROUND WHITE WITH QUARTER AND DIME SIZE HAIL. RELAYED BY
            MEDIA

&&

JVINING

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