Alert archive / North Dakota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2010

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 48, NWS Bismarck, ND

May 27, 2010Ward County, North Dakota

NWS Bismarck, ND issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 27, 2010, 12:31 PM CDT for Ward County, North Dakota. It was in force for 44 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
May 27, 2010, 12:31 PM CDT (17:31 UTC)
Expired
May 27, 2010, 1:15 PM CDT
In force
44 min
Issued by
NWS Bismarck, ND
Area
Storm-based polygon
Hail
1.0 in
Wind
50.0 mph

County Ward County, ND

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Bismarck, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 27, 3:37 AM CDT, 8 hours 54 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 27, 3:37 AM CDT, 8 hours 54 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
337 AM CDT THU MAY 27 2010

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS DAYTIME
HEATING LINKS THE SURFACE WINDS TO MUCH STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING INTO THE WEST CAUSING A SURFACE LOW TO
DEVELOP ON THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
EAST THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL BE A
SLOW PROCESS AND WILL INDUCE YET ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE NORTH INTO CANADA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PUSH WARM AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH
RISING DEWPOINTS AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S. BY LATE AFTERNOON A WARM FRONT SHOULD STRETCH ALONG THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO CANADA BY FRIDAY
MORNING...BUT THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA THEN BECOME ELONGATED AS IT SLIDES EAST. CONVECTION IS
LIKELY ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. HIGH CAPES AND STRONG SHEAR THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT LEADING TO A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM AGAIN ON FRIDAY...BUT WILL BE MUCH
COOLER IN THE WEST ON SATURDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY...BUT AS THE LOW MOVES
EAST THE BEST CAPE AND SHEAR WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
ENDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MODELS DIFFER QUITE A BIT IN THE DETAILS DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...BUT ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE GENERAL PATTERN.
OVERALL...EXPECT A NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE MAIN BELT OF
WESTERLIES...AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN ALONG THE
SOUTHERN CONUS. THIS PLACES THE MAJOR STORM TRACK RIGHT OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...KEEPING THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE GUN FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

SUNDAY BEGINS WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. ALONG WITH A DECENT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SOME
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECT WIND MAY BE A CONCERN AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW. THE SYSTEM SHOULD
EXIT THE STATE BY MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR WEAK RIDGING TO BUILD INTO
THE REGION. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS SWEEP ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM THROUGH THE STATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  EXPECT RATHER STRONG CAA SUNDAY WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WARMING TREND...BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY.

.AVIATION...

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSING THE STATE HAS RESULTED IN NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MY WESTERN COUNTIES...INCLUDING
KDIK...KISN...AND KMOT. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE TERM AT KISN...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT KMOT...AS THE
BOUNDARY STALLS OUT IN THE NORTHWEST AND INSTABILITY THERE REMAINS
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE CONVECTION. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS WITHIN
AREAS OF RAIN...AS WELL AS IN THE WEST NEAR THE BOUNDARY AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ABUNDANT. OTHERWISE...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL WITH
EASTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS DURING THE DAY...AND 5 TO 10 KNOTS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 7 PM
CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ031>033-040>045.

&&

SHORT TERM...TSW
LONG TERM/AVIATION...BPN/RK
Hazardous weather outlook, May 27, 4:52 AM CDT, 7 hours 39 minutes before
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In the hours before

Special weather statement, May 27, 7:45 AM CDT, 4 hours 46 minutes before
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Special weather statement, May 27, 8:48 AM CDT, 3 hours 43 minutes before
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Local storm report, May 27, 11:14 AM CDT, 1 hour 17 minutes before
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Special weather statement, May 27, 11:45 AM CDT, 46 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1145 AM CDT THU MAY 27 2010

NDZ010-011-021-271745-
MCLEAN-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
1145 AM CDT THU MAY 27 2010

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 1142 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER WEST CENTRAL MCLEAN COUNTY...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

* THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  ROSEGLEN BY 1150 AM CDT...
  RYDER BY 1205 PM CDT...

STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES. SEEK SHELTER IN A
STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

SIMOSKO
Local storm report, May 27, 12:23 PM CDT, 8 minutes before
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The office that day

Everything else NWS Bismarck, ND issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 27, 4:33 AM CDTWind AdvisoryBISAdams, Billings, Bowman, Golden Valley, Grant, Hettinger and 2 more14 hr
May 27, 8:13 AM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryBISMcLean, Mountrail, Ward3 hr
May 27, 9:16 AM CDTFlash Flood WarningBISMcHenry, Ward3 hr
May 27, 11:53 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBISMcLean, Mountrail, Ward37 min
May 27, 12:57 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBISWard48 min
May 27, 1:33 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningBISBottineau, Renville3 hr
May 27, 4:27 PM CDTFlash Flood WatchBISBottineau, Burke, Dickey, Divide, Emmons, Golden Valley and 11 more60 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in North Dakota, 2010Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2010

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.