Flash Flood Watch 2, NWS Bismarck, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
337 AM CDT THU MAY 27 2010

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS DAYTIME
HEATING LINKS THE SURFACE WINDS TO MUCH STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING INTO THE WEST CAUSING A SURFACE LOW TO
DEVELOP ON THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
EAST THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL BE A
SLOW PROCESS AND WILL INDUCE YET ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE NORTH INTO CANADA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PUSH WARM AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH
RISING DEWPOINTS AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S. BY LATE AFTERNOON A WARM FRONT SHOULD STRETCH ALONG THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO CANADA BY FRIDAY
MORNING...BUT THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA THEN BECOME ELONGATED AS IT SLIDES EAST. CONVECTION IS
LIKELY ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. HIGH CAPES AND STRONG SHEAR THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT LEADING TO A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM AGAIN ON FRIDAY...BUT WILL BE MUCH
COOLER IN THE WEST ON SATURDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY...BUT AS THE LOW MOVES
EAST THE BEST CAPE AND SHEAR WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
ENDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MODELS DIFFER QUITE A BIT IN THE DETAILS DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...BUT ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE GENERAL PATTERN.
OVERALL...EXPECT A NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE MAIN BELT OF
WESTERLIES...AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN ALONG THE
SOUTHERN CONUS. THIS PLACES THE MAJOR STORM TRACK RIGHT OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...KEEPING THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE GUN FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

SUNDAY BEGINS WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. ALONG WITH A DECENT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SOME
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECT WIND MAY BE A CONCERN AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW. THE SYSTEM SHOULD
EXIT THE STATE BY MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR WEAK RIDGING TO BUILD INTO
THE REGION. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS SWEEP ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM THROUGH THE STATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  EXPECT RATHER STRONG CAA SUNDAY WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WARMING TREND...BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY.

.AVIATION...

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSING THE STATE HAS RESULTED IN NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MY WESTERN COUNTIES...INCLUDING
KDIK...KISN...AND KMOT. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE TERM AT KISN...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT KMOT...AS THE
BOUNDARY STALLS OUT IN THE NORTHWEST AND INSTABILITY THERE REMAINS
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE CONVECTION. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS WITHIN
AREAS OF RAIN...AS WELL AS IN THE WEST NEAR THE BOUNDARY AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ABUNDANT. OTHERWISE...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL WITH
EASTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS DURING THE DAY...AND 5 TO 10 KNOTS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 7 PM
CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ031>033-040>045.

&&

SHORT TERM...TSW
LONG TERM/AVIATION...BPN/RK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
452 AM CDT THU MAY 27 2010

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-034>037-046>048-050-051-281000-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-
FOSTER-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-STUTSMAN-EMMONS-LOGAN-LA MOURE-
MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
452 AM CDT THU MAY 27 2010 /352 AM MDT THU MAY 27 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY
SEVERE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HIGH CAPE AND GOOD WIND SHEAR
CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THEY WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG OR NORTH OF A WARM FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE
INTO NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY SEVERE DUE TO HIGH CAPE AND STRONG SHEAR...ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW IN MONTANA
ELONGATES AND MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THERE IS ALSO
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY...TUESDAY...AND WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

NDZ031>033-040>045-281000-
GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-
SIOUX-
452 AM CDT THU MAY 27 2010 /352 AM MDT THU MAY 27 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTH
WINDS AROUND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY SEVERE DUE TO
HIGH CAPE AND STRONG WIND SHEAR...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY SEVERE DUE TO HIGH CAPE AND STRONG SHEAR...ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW IN MONTANA
ELONGATES AND MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THERE IS ALSO
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY...TUESDAY...AND WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1223 PM CDT THU MAY 27 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1208 PM     HAIL             4 N ROSEGLEN            47.81N 101.84W
05/27/2010  E0.88 INCH       MCLEAN             ND   BROADCAST MEDIA

            NICKEL TO GRAPE SIZE HAIL

&&

ABELING

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1251 PM CDT THU MAY 27 2010

NDZ002>005-271900-
BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BOWBELLS...MOHALL...BOTTINEAU...ROLLA
1251 PM CDT THU MAY 27 2010

AT 1245 PM CDT THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY
RAIN WERE MOVING THROUGH THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL...FROM BOTTINEAU TO
UPHAM...WEST TO LANSFORD INTO BOWBELLS.

ALTHOUGH THESE STORMS ARE NOT AS STRONG AS EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON... THEY AREA CAPABLE OF PRODUCING UP TO ONE HALF INCH
OF RAIN IN LESS THAN AN HOUR. ALSO...THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING. BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IF STORMS
APPROACH YOUR AREA.

WAA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
115 PM CDT THU MAY 27 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0114 PM     HAIL             MINOT                   48.23N 101.30W
05/27/2010  E1.00 INCH       WARD               ND   PUBLIC

&&

CLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
123 PM CDT THU MAY 27 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0101 PM     HAIL             9 SW MINOT              48.14N 101.43W
05/27/2010  E1.00 INCH       WARD               ND   PUBLIC

0108 PM     HAIL             4 W MINOT               48.23N 101.38W
05/27/2010  E1.00 INCH       WARD               ND   PUBLIC

&&

CLH

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