Severe Thunderstorm Warning 384, NWS Bismarck, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
201 PM CDT WED AUG 11 2010

.SYNOPSIS...QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM LAKE WINNIPEG
SOUTHWEST THROUGH KMOT AND KISN TO DEE PENING LOW TROUGH IN LEE OF
MONTANA ROCKIES. VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER EASTERN DAKOTAS
WITH DRIER CONDITIONS WORKING FROM WEST TO EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE WITH TIMING AND SEVERITY OF CONVECTION.
GFS AND NAM HAVE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS TO CONVECTION INHIBITION
TONIGHT WITH 12Z GFS DELAYING QPF WEST OF NORTH DAKOTA AND
MONTANA BORDER UNTIL AFTER 00Z TONIGHT...NAM AND 00Z ECMWF BOTH
BRING CHANCE OF CONVECTION TO WESTERN ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL NOWCAST BEGINNING OF PRECIPITATION WITH SOON ARRIVING 12Z
ECMWF.

CONVECTION CONTINUES OVERNIGHT BEFORE EXITING WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY MORNING. CAPPED MIXED LAYER WILL EXIST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH MOISTURE INCREASING AS RETURN FLOW
INCREASES. SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER MAY BE AN ISSUE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HIGH SHEAR AND MOISTURE PARAMETERS MOVE EAST OF CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA FRIDAY THOUGH THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE FROM FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH MEAN RIDGE LOCATION OVER ROCKIES AND ONTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
EXTENDED BEGINS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS SUNDAY.
MAINLY DRY WEST WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS FOR
MOST OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW. AFTERNOON TQ INDICES AROUND 17C SUPPORT THIS NOTION
ALONG WITH WEAK CAPE VALUES. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

THEREAFTER THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A
RE-ENFORCING SURGE OF COOLER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ALOFT/SURFACE FRONT ROTATING AROUND A LARGE HUDSON BAY LOW SLATED TO
MOVE THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY NIGHT. WILL EXPERIENCE A VERY BRIEF
MODERATING TREND MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS BETWEEN
75F-85F. WITH THIS CHANGE IN AIRMASS...EXPECT A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN ZONES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
ELSEWHERE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE
FRONT...MUCH COOLER TUESDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
UPPER 70S. SHOWERS EXIT THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING WITH A DRY/NORTHWEST
FLOW RESUMING FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT OVER
SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA WILL MOVE EAST DURING THE NEXT 24HR REACHING
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY EVENING. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN AERODROMES/KISN AND
KDIK EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL
AERODROMES/KMOT/KBIS AND KJMS OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST OUTSIDE OF THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BUT IN AND AROUND
THE PRECIPITATION AREAS EXPECT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HW/KS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
408 PM CDT WED AUG 11 2010

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-122115-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-
FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-
STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-
LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
408 PM CDT WED AUG 11 2010 /308 PM MDT WED AUG 11 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
HERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
WEST...AND OVER ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE THIS EVENING WEST AND CENTRAL
OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS
IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

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