Severe Thunderstorm Warning 367, NWS Bismarck, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
201 PM CDT WED AUG 11 2010

.SYNOPSIS...QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM LAKE WINNIPEG
SOUTHWEST THROUGH KMOT AND KISN TO DEE PENING LOW TROUGH IN LEE OF
MONTANA ROCKIES. VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER EASTERN DAKOTAS
WITH DRIER CONDITIONS WORKING FROM WEST TO EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE WITH TIMING AND SEVERITY OF CONVECTION.
GFS AND NAM HAVE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS TO CONVECTION INHIBITION
TONIGHT WITH 12Z GFS DELAYING QPF WEST OF NORTH DAKOTA AND
MONTANA BORDER UNTIL AFTER 00Z TONIGHT...NAM AND 00Z ECMWF BOTH
BRING CHANCE OF CONVECTION TO WESTERN ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL NOWCAST BEGINNING OF PRECIPITATION WITH SOON ARRIVING 12Z
ECMWF.

CONVECTION CONTINUES OVERNIGHT BEFORE EXITING WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY MORNING. CAPPED MIXED LAYER WILL EXIST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH MOISTURE INCREASING AS RETURN FLOW
INCREASES. SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER MAY BE AN ISSUE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HIGH SHEAR AND MOISTURE PARAMETERS MOVE EAST OF CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA FRIDAY THOUGH THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE FROM FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH MEAN RIDGE LOCATION OVER ROCKIES AND ONTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
EXTENDED BEGINS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS SUNDAY.
MAINLY DRY WEST WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS FOR
MOST OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW. AFTERNOON TQ INDICES AROUND 17C SUPPORT THIS NOTION
ALONG WITH WEAK CAPE VALUES. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

THEREAFTER THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A
RE-ENFORCING SURGE OF COOLER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ALOFT/SURFACE FRONT ROTATING AROUND A LARGE HUDSON BAY LOW SLATED TO
MOVE THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY NIGHT. WILL EXPERIENCE A VERY BRIEF
MODERATING TREND MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS BETWEEN
75F-85F. WITH THIS CHANGE IN AIRMASS...EXPECT A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN ZONES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
ELSEWHERE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE
FRONT...MUCH COOLER TUESDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
UPPER 70S. SHOWERS EXIT THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING WITH A DRY/NORTHWEST
FLOW RESUMING FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT OVER
SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA WILL MOVE EAST DURING THE NEXT 24HR REACHING
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY EVENING. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN AERODROMES/KISN AND
KDIK EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL
AERODROMES/KMOT/KBIS AND KJMS OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST OUTSIDE OF THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BUT IN AND AROUND
THE PRECIPITATION AREAS EXPECT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HW/KS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
408 PM CDT WED AUG 11 2010

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-122115-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-
FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-
STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-
LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
408 PM CDT WED AUG 11 2010 /308 PM MDT WED AUG 11 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
HERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
WEST...AND OVER ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE THIS EVENING WEST AND CENTRAL
OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS
IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
718 PM CDT WED AUG 11 2010

NDZ009-017-120115-
MCKENZIE ND-WILLIAMS ND-
618 PM MDT WED AUG 11 2010

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR WESTERN MCKENZIE AND SOUTHWESTERN
WILLIAMS COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM MDT/815 PM CDT/...

AT 712 PM CDT/612 PM MDT/...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
INDICATED THAT A THUNDERSTORM WAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING 15 MILES WEST OF
SIDNEY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

BETWEEN 745 AND 8 PM CDT...THESE STORMS WILL BE MOVING INTO
NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF LARGE
HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS ALONG WITH FREQUENT DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  CARTWRIGHT...
  FORT UNION...
  EAST FAIRVIEW...
  SATHER DAM...
  FORT UNION TRADING POST...
  FORT BUFORD STATE HISTORICAL SITE...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

ABELING

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
730 PM CDT WED AUG 11 2010

NDZ031-120115-
GOLDEN VALLEY ND-
630 PM MDT WED AUG 11 2010

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR NORTHERN GOLDEN VALLEY COUNTY UNTIL
715 PM MDT...

AT 626 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BEACH...OR 7 MILES EAST OF WIBAUX...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF WESTERN GOLDEN VALLEY COUNTY.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV
STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

AYD